Friday, July 10, 2009

> UFC 100 Predictions

>PRELIM FIGHTS
Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty
Who cares? Its a pretty irrelevant fight that hopefully sets a good tone for the evening. -Grice by TKO in Round 2

CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor
Very different styles collide and CB is just too much more disciplined.
-Dollaway by submission in Round 3

TJ Grant vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Grant steps in for Jonathan Goulet, who was originally scheduled for this fight. A fighter change always makes things interesting and in this case, I think that Grant is smart enough to avoid Kim's sharp elbows.
-Grant by unanimous submission

Jon Jones vs. Jake O'Brien
Jones is way stronger than O'Brien, that's all that matters.
-Jones by TKO in Round 1

Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller
There have been no Ultimate Fighter winners more dissapointing than Danzig, who is boring and subpar at best. He'll be lucky if Miller gives him any room. Miller's loss to Gray Maynard will be offset as he dominates Danzig.
-Miller by unanimous decision

Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar
At the Ultimate Finale of the Griffin/Rampage season, Kendall Grove (a (TUF alum) fought the late Evan Tanner (a former world champion) in a match Grove labeled as "loser leaves town." This is the sequel. Fortunatly for Bonnar, who TWICE stood toe to toe with Forrest Griffin, Coleman is too old and not going to have the conditioning he needs.
-Bonnar by TKO in Round 2

>MAIN CARD
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher
This could become a slugfest with fight of the night potential even with the four other blockbuster main card fights. If Akiyama is smart, he won't let it become so because he can submit so much better than Belcher, a man who is much closer to one dimensional. Ground fight goes to Akiyama but I don't think he's smart enough to take it there.
-Belcher by unanimous decision

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago
Thiago is 11-0 in his career, but only 1-0 in the UFC. And while he may be strong, very strong, knocking out Josh Koscheck isn't the most rare thing in the world. Fitch on the other hand doesn't care and I can all but guarantee that. He has the best chin in MMA and he'll take all that Thiago has to offer and give it back ten fold. My money is on my hometown boy.
-Fitch by split decision

Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson
Bisping's a striker, Henderson's a wrestler. The difference? Henderson can't defend striking as well as Bisping can defend wrestling. If the swing, eventually Bisping will catch Henderson but I don't know if Hendo can catch "The Count." On the ground, Bisping has improved his scrambling so well that Henderson may keep him down, but can he do anything with him while they are down there? It doesn't matter who Hendo has beaten, all that matters is this fight. It will be a classic but Henderson will go all out and that's comendable. I'd rather be a winner than commeded. Hendo stays close and fights, Bisping sticks and runs out of the line of fire. Call it what you will, I'll call it smart. Henderson will take Mike down, so the Brit was wrong. But he was right somewhere, he's gonna be the first to kncok Hendo out. The last time a fighter who has won The Ultimate Fighter, then gone on to coach the show later in their career, fought the guy they coached against, he won. Bisping is the new Griffin and fittingly he gets the next fight with Anderson Silva after Griffin fights him at 101.
-Bisping by TKO in Round 3

Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves
Haven't I already said that hammering on Josh Koscheck isn't that big of a deal? Ok, so Alves is much better than Paulo Thiago but still Koscheck isn't a high placed reference point. Alves is a heavy hitter and if he lands a couple good, quick shots then GSP could be in trouble as we learned in the first Matt Serra fight. But its a lot easier to get surprised by Serra than Alves, who is well, well known for his heavy hands and power. GSP has seen every side of ever style and lived to talk about it and even laugh down at it after he beat it's ass.
-GSP retains by unanimous decision

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Let's throw out that Lesnar doesn't even deserve to be in this spot and he got fast tracked because of his name. I am not sure how Lesnar thinks it is ok to talk that match trash when what he's done in the UFC is get dismantled by Mir, take 3 full rounds to beat Heath Herring (and who hasn't beat Heath Herring) and stop a very aged Randy Couture coming off an extended leave. If Lesnar wins, I will give him credit but there will still need to be a rubber match down the line. Until he wins, he's just a slightly more talented Kimbo Slice, ready to be exposed yet again. While most count Lesnar as the favorite- and yes he does have heavy, heavy hands- I see the fight as a lose/lose for him. If he goes to wrestler mode, we've seen what can and likely will happen. Frank Mir is just too good at BJJ no matter how much Brock has worked on his BJJ defense. Any position he wrestles Mir into, Frank can submit him. So how about just kick boxing? Well, Brock can't kick and Frank can. And no matter how much damage Brock's fists did in the first fight, Mir just...and let me make sure this is stressed...TKO'D NOGUEIRA!! Brock's too cocky, too angry and will make mistakes.
-Mir by submission in Round 2 to become the Undisputed champion

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

> UFC Top Ten Fights

Tomorrow night, the UFC will finalize their 'Ultimate 100 Greatest Fights' countdown on Spike with the top 10 all time. I, for one, am currently baffled by Mike Goldberg's continuous question of what will be number one because in my mind it's a clear cut choice. But already in the countdown, there have been some I have questioned, which has motivated me to write this column on my personal favorite ten fights that I have ever seen in the UFC.

First note, these are strictly UFC fights so don't count any of the other fights I have seen in other organizations. Sorry, Urijah Faber/Mike Brown II, you would have been high on my list.

Second note, I like many started getting into the UFC with and because of The Ultimate Fighter. So, any fights that I have seen (and there are many) from pre-Ultimate Fighter days have only been seen in retrospect and not when they originally happened. The exception to that are fights from UFC 1-3, which I saw at a friend's house on VHS as a teenager. So without furthur delay, these are the Top 10 UFC fights I have ever seen:

10. Clay Guida vs. Roger Huerta
- Guida and Huerta put on an all-out war, which is usual of both men's fights. Guida has done it countless times, Huerta did it with Leonard Garcia and others. An even fight is usually one that will be decided not by who catches who first, but by who makes the first mistake. That's how Huerta finished this one.

9. Sam Stout vs. Spencer Fisher I
- I know their second fight is universally regarded as the better because Fisher was seen more on his game. Yes, he cut a lot of weight quick in taking this fight late, but that makes it even more impressive in my mind. Stout/Fisher II was good and it was neccesary because

8. Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida
- This was the last fight the UFC had and it still even made the top 15 on the UFC Ultimate 100 countdown. That's for good reason because the pace rarely let up and neither man quit even bloody and/or battered. In my opinion, heart makes good fights and few, if any, have bigger hearts than these two.

7. Kendall Grove vs. Ed Herman
- UFC Magazine recently referred to this Ultimate Fighter 3 middleweight title fight at "Griffin/Bonnar on the ground." And they were right. These guys went to battle for three rounds as the best two fighters on the seasons. It doesn't matter than Herman went on to flop and Grove's career has been up and down. When two guys roll around and you never know who's going to catch who in a possible fight closing submission, it's almost equally exciting as a slugfest.

6. Tito Ortiz vs. Frank Shamrock
- This was one of the first fights for both fighters to really showcase a barrage of the different techniques of MMA. It really launched Tito Ortiz as a superstar and while striking was getting more important in the sport, it was Frank Shamrock's submissions that helped keep BJJ and old school shoot fighting in the forefront too.

5. Randy Couture vs. Tim Sylvia
- Fact is that Couture dominated this match, but that didn't make it less great. What makes it great is that, no matter his age, he didn't let up for the entire fight and didn't let five rounds faze him. This fight was one of the most important in the transition period of the UFC to mainstream.

4. Georges St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch
- Another fight where one guy (GSP) was just dominant and really showed that Fitch wasn't on his level. But in this one, unlike with Sylvia, Fitch proved that he was still a beast. When you can pretty much get your ass handed to you and still come out looking like a monster, then the fight was a classic. GSP went to town, Fitch didn't back down.

3. Forrest Griffin vs. Rampage Jackson
- The best five rounder I have ever witnessed by far. The fact that you could make an argument for Griffin, Rampage or even a draw in the decision makes that clear. Both men had scouted eachother well, no matter what excuses Rampage makes now. What stood out was who was willing to go outside of their normal gameplan the most and that was Forrest with his leg kicks. Rampage didn't adjust and Forrest took advantage and Jackson's title.

2. Jared Rollins vs. Jon 'War Machine' Koppenhaver
- Ok, so here is where I rant a little. How the hell is this #81 on the Ultimate 100 countdown? I'm sure part of it is the UFC's biased (you know that entire thing can't be fully by fan vote) because they don't exactly have a good relationship with Koppenhaver. You saw how bad they've talked about Ortiz, who they likewise aren't buddies with, even though he's one of the UFC greats. The rest of it may be the fact that fans are gonna vote for big names and be more inclined to forget about two guys who don't fight in the UFC anymore who were on the undercard of an Ultimate Fighter Finale.

These two guys were not the best fighters on the Team Hughes/Team Serra season and there is a reason that they weren't fighting for the contract. But never in a million years would you have thought that watching them. If you had watched the season's first episode to see who was competing then not tuned in again until the finale, you would have thought this was the title fight. I don't know if I have ever seen two guys who wanted to lose less. There was no way that either guy was going to tap in this one and going to the judges would have been heartbreaking if it wasn't ruled a draw. Luckily War Machine took care of that for them, but only seconds of being on the verge of losing by TKO himself. It will forever stand as one of the greatest slug fests in UFC history. And it doesn't hurt that it was a bloody, bloody affair.

1. Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar I
- Here's your answer Mike Goldberg...the ONLY fight that can be number one. Fight! Magazine named it such, UFC Magazine named it such, I'm naming it such and if the Ultimate 100 Countdown doesn't name it as such, then the voting UFC fans should all be stoned.

Forget that it was for the second contract ever awarded by the UFC to an Ultimate Fighter winner (most people refer to Griffin as the original Ultimate Fighter, when Diego Sanchez took home his title first that night). Forget that this show and this fight launched the UFC and MMA into the mainstream and made it acceptable by many people worldwide who had written the sport off years and years ago. Even forget that this show was the first live UFC event to ever appear on cable television.

All of that aside, take what Griffin and Bonnar did on April 9, 2005 as what it was- it was a fight. There is a line in the movie Rocky Balboa where Rocky asks
"what's so crazy about standing toe to toe with someone saying 'I am'?" That is what these two did. They didn't roll around, they didn't get technical, there was Muay Thai, there was no BJJ. There was Griffin, Bonnar and flurry of fists. It was a fight in the purist, most glorious form. It changed the face of the sport and made MMA what it is that we all see today. But even without that, even if it didn't do anything to help the UFC really establish itself, the fight stands alone as THE best ever.


(honorable mention: Griffin/Bonnar II, Chuck Liddell vs. Wanderlei Silva, St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn II and Nate Quarry vs. Pete Sell)