Past Predictions (UFC 100-102, 104-111, 113-114, 117, UFC on VERSUS 1-2): 89-80-1
Last Card: 7-4
PRELIMS
Mike Pierce def. Amilcar Alves
Nick Osipczak def. Greg Soto
Dan Miller def. John Salter
SPIKE PRELIMS
Andre Winner def. Nik Lentz
Gabe Ruediger def. Joe Lauzon
MAIN CARD
Nate Diaz def. Marcus Davis
Kenny Florian def. Gray Maynard
Demian Maia def. Mario Miranda
Randy Couture def. James Toney
Frankie Edgar def. BJ Penn to retain UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Showing posts with label Kenny Florian. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kenny Florian. Show all posts
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Thursday, December 10, 2009
>UFC 107 Predictions
UFC Predictions (100-102, 104-106): 26-38-1 - last card: 6-3-1
It is that time again, yes another UFC event. This one, like so many lately, is not what was originally broadcast to be. Instead of Rampage/Rashad, it is headlined by an equally heavy handed potential slugfest and for a world title even.
PreLims
Kevin Burns def. TJ Grant
2nd Round Submission
Edgar Garcia def. Marques Johnson
3rd Round TKO
Rousimar Palhares def. Lucio Linhares
1st Round TKO
Johny Hendricks def. Ricardo Funch
2nd Round Submission
Matt Winman def. Shane Nelson
Unanimous Decision
Wilson Gouveia def. Alan Belcher
2nd Round KO
MAIN CARD
Stefan Struve vs. Paul Buentello
I won't pretend to be an expert on either of these guys. But I do know this: it is never a good day to face a 6'11'' guy in any athletic competition when you are 6'2''
-Struve by 1st Round TKO
Kenny 'KenFlo' Florian vs. Clay 'The Carpenter' Guida
It's a tough life to live for Guida, who is always right on the cusp at 155, but will never be top tier. He fought Diego Sanchez, which was a good match up because they both swing for the fences, but Diego is just better at that which is why Clay fell to this fight and isn't challenging BJ Penn. Neither is going to be rendered irrelevant in a loss here, but the loser will get pushed significantly back down the 155 ladder. Guida is a swinger, but Florian is just plain smarter than almost everyone in the UFC, so what he lacks in aggression, he makes up for in mentality. Someone steps closer to a title shot, someone has to put it on the back burner.
-Florian by 2nd Round Submission
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Pierce is a scrappy guy, but has the unfortunate reality of running into THE scrappy guy in the UFC. Fitch will take a beating and keep on ticking, as he showed in his most unfortunate loss at the hands of Georges St. Pierre. And Pierce is no GSP when it comes to putting the hurt or the pressure on. The welterweight division is packed full of contenders, but the question is who is the top draw (even with Dan Hardy getting the next crack at GSP). Koscheck, Rumble, Paulo Thiago...they all may have to stay 2nd string because a dominant win for Fitch here could catapult him back to top contendership for the GSP/Hardy winner.
-Fitch by 1st Round KO
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
I personally don't think that this fight will be as close as some. Kongo, while likeable, just does not have the world's most killer instinct. And while Mir does not often show his on TV or outside of the cage, he sure knows when to turn it up. And knowing that Mir's primary focus in all of life is Brock Lesnar, he knows that he has to dominate every fight until the UFC matches him back up with Brock. I don't see this fight as the pure 'Strike vs. Submitter' that the UFC is trying to bill it as. Instead, it's a striker, with no other significant abilities against THE BEST submitter in the division, who can just as well knock you out. I think Frank will do both just to prove he can...knock him down, then tap him out.
-Mir by 2nd Round Submission
UFC World Lightweight Title
'The Prodigy' BJ Penn vs. Diego 'The Nightmare' Sanchez
I am 1-3 in predicting title fights since UFC 100. Is that because I don't have faith in the old guard? Possibly. Two of those misses came in the last two fights, predicting that Penn and Machida would fall in their last defenses. I also have a problem picking fighters I like based purely on that fact. I need to change my mentality on both of these things because of this: BJ Penn is one of the best smaller MMA fighters ever. He proved me wrong last time in SOME ways. He outlasted Kenny Florian and killed the strategy of testing BJ's gas tank over five rounds. I said earlier in this post that Kenny Florian is one of the smartest fighters in the UFC and he is...but BJ Penn outsmarted him. If BJ can outsmart Diego, then this will be a very long, methodical fight where BJ will retain again and maybe end up with the Nate Diaz/Gray Maynard winner. But, there are some holes that need to be pointed out. Number one, BJ was exhausted after five rounds with Kenny Florian, so he would be really exhausted after five rounds with a worker like Diego Sanchez, no matter what Diego's tank may look like (and who knows...we've never seen Diego go five). With that said, BJ knows and has said that his mentality in this fight when Diego runs at him is to run right back at Diego. This would be the dumbest thing that I have ever seen because Penn just can't let 'em fly like Nightmare can. I would love to say this will be an epic, five round war that will redefine this division. And if it does go that far, there is a much greater chance that BJ Penn will be retaining and Diego will fall. But BJ has told us his gameplan and when he does that, he usually sticks to it. I, sadly for BJ, believe what he says, so that really only means one thing to me.....
-Diego Sanchez by Second Round TKO to become the NEW UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPION OF THE WORLD
That's right, i'm throwing out the conventional wisdom to go against what I normally do. Instead of playing it "safe," I am going with a new champion and a fighter that I just plain like a lot better. But it's not for the same reasons as usual. This time it's educated and it's because BJ's making me do it. Sorry champ, you never run at the rhino that's about to gore you. Time for a change.
It is that time again, yes another UFC event. This one, like so many lately, is not what was originally broadcast to be. Instead of Rampage/Rashad, it is headlined by an equally heavy handed potential slugfest and for a world title even.
PreLims
Kevin Burns def. TJ Grant
2nd Round Submission
Edgar Garcia def. Marques Johnson
3rd Round TKO
Rousimar Palhares def. Lucio Linhares
1st Round TKO
Johny Hendricks def. Ricardo Funch
2nd Round Submission
Matt Winman def. Shane Nelson
Unanimous Decision
Wilson Gouveia def. Alan Belcher
2nd Round KO
MAIN CARD
Stefan Struve vs. Paul Buentello
I won't pretend to be an expert on either of these guys. But I do know this: it is never a good day to face a 6'11'' guy in any athletic competition when you are 6'2''
-Struve by 1st Round TKO
Kenny 'KenFlo' Florian vs. Clay 'The Carpenter' Guida
It's a tough life to live for Guida, who is always right on the cusp at 155, but will never be top tier. He fought Diego Sanchez, which was a good match up because they both swing for the fences, but Diego is just better at that which is why Clay fell to this fight and isn't challenging BJ Penn. Neither is going to be rendered irrelevant in a loss here, but the loser will get pushed significantly back down the 155 ladder. Guida is a swinger, but Florian is just plain smarter than almost everyone in the UFC, so what he lacks in aggression, he makes up for in mentality. Someone steps closer to a title shot, someone has to put it on the back burner.
-Florian by 2nd Round Submission
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Pierce is a scrappy guy, but has the unfortunate reality of running into THE scrappy guy in the UFC. Fitch will take a beating and keep on ticking, as he showed in his most unfortunate loss at the hands of Georges St. Pierre. And Pierce is no GSP when it comes to putting the hurt or the pressure on. The welterweight division is packed full of contenders, but the question is who is the top draw (even with Dan Hardy getting the next crack at GSP). Koscheck, Rumble, Paulo Thiago...they all may have to stay 2nd string because a dominant win for Fitch here could catapult him back to top contendership for the GSP/Hardy winner.
-Fitch by 1st Round KO
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
I personally don't think that this fight will be as close as some. Kongo, while likeable, just does not have the world's most killer instinct. And while Mir does not often show his on TV or outside of the cage, he sure knows when to turn it up. And knowing that Mir's primary focus in all of life is Brock Lesnar, he knows that he has to dominate every fight until the UFC matches him back up with Brock. I don't see this fight as the pure 'Strike vs. Submitter' that the UFC is trying to bill it as. Instead, it's a striker, with no other significant abilities against THE BEST submitter in the division, who can just as well knock you out. I think Frank will do both just to prove he can...knock him down, then tap him out.
-Mir by 2nd Round Submission
UFC World Lightweight Title
'The Prodigy' BJ Penn vs. Diego 'The Nightmare' Sanchez
I am 1-3 in predicting title fights since UFC 100. Is that because I don't have faith in the old guard? Possibly. Two of those misses came in the last two fights, predicting that Penn and Machida would fall in their last defenses. I also have a problem picking fighters I like based purely on that fact. I need to change my mentality on both of these things because of this: BJ Penn is one of the best smaller MMA fighters ever. He proved me wrong last time in SOME ways. He outlasted Kenny Florian and killed the strategy of testing BJ's gas tank over five rounds. I said earlier in this post that Kenny Florian is one of the smartest fighters in the UFC and he is...but BJ Penn outsmarted him. If BJ can outsmart Diego, then this will be a very long, methodical fight where BJ will retain again and maybe end up with the Nate Diaz/Gray Maynard winner. But, there are some holes that need to be pointed out. Number one, BJ was exhausted after five rounds with Kenny Florian, so he would be really exhausted after five rounds with a worker like Diego Sanchez, no matter what Diego's tank may look like (and who knows...we've never seen Diego go five). With that said, BJ knows and has said that his mentality in this fight when Diego runs at him is to run right back at Diego. This would be the dumbest thing that I have ever seen because Penn just can't let 'em fly like Nightmare can. I would love to say this will be an epic, five round war that will redefine this division. And if it does go that far, there is a much greater chance that BJ Penn will be retaining and Diego will fall. But BJ has told us his gameplan and when he does that, he usually sticks to it. I, sadly for BJ, believe what he says, so that really only means one thing to me.....
-Diego Sanchez by Second Round TKO to become the NEW UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPION OF THE WORLD
That's right, i'm throwing out the conventional wisdom to go against what I normally do. Instead of playing it "safe," I am going with a new champion and a fighter that I just plain like a lot better. But it's not for the same reasons as usual. This time it's educated and it's because BJ's making me do it. Sorry champ, you never run at the rhino that's about to gore you. Time for a change.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
> UFC 101 Predictions
How does the UFC follow up "the greatest card in the company's history"? Well, they have set the bar pretty high with UFC 101: Declaration. My UFC 100 predictions weren't so spot on (sorry, Michael Bisping) and even if these are equally as wrong...at least I am pretty sure this will be one hell of an event. Last time out I was 4-7 with my picks with two being spot on (unanimous decisions for Jim Miller and Georges St. Pierre).
>PRELIM FIGHTS
Jesse Lennox Vs. Danillo Villefort
Should be a strong welterweight fight with WEC guys making their UFC debuts. Considering the pace that is natural in WEC, I (like most people) expect a slugfest here.
-Villefort by TKO in Round 1
George Sotiropoulos Vs. George Roop
A lot of former TUF competitors on the card tonight, including three winners on the main card. In this match of of TUF 6 and TUF 8 fighters, I'm going to take the old Team Serra favorite just because he has so many more tools than Roop at this point even though I think Roop will enjoy more longterm success.
-Sotiropoulos by TKO in Round 2
Matthew Riddle Vs. Dan Cramer
These two guys both need the win and will want it since the loss will be a first for either of them in their short careers. Experience has most giving the edge to Riddle, but for some reason I just have never been able to see him as a serious fight. Cramer WILL make the most of this chance while Riddle only 'might.'
-Cramer by Unanimous Decision
Thales Leites Vs. Alessio Sakara
Quick and to the point: Sakara is boring.
-Leites by KO in Round 1
Tamdan McCrory Vs. John Howard
Howard must be six shades of stupid to accept a fight with a guy who is NINE inches taller and likely in his last welterweight fight before moving up to middleweight. No slugfest, just a smashfest. With the reach advantage huge here, it's hard to not expect a KO, McCrory likes his ground game and I don't think it will take him long to stop Howard.
-McCrory by submission in Round 1
Shane Nelson Vs. Aaron Riley
Because of the ending of their previous fight, I would assume there is no lack of dislike between these two here and that may be the difference. At the end of the day, Nelson seems like the more poised person and fighter who can't put all other things aside and just fight.
-Nelson by submission in Round 3
>MAIN CARD
Josh Neer Vs. Kurt Pellegrino
This is an interesting fight in the fact that both men have so much to win and also so much to lose in this fight. Neer however is just more talented on the ground and if this one goes there, he's top dog. But Kurt won't be so easy to be taken down, even if Neer is a bit bigger.
-Neer by submission in Round 2
Kendall Grove Vs. Ricardo Almeida
No secret to anyone I talk MMA with, I am a huge Kendall Grove fan. That said, this opinion (kind of unlike my UFC 100 predict of Michael Bisping) has nothing to do with that fandom. Many people have analyzed this fight as what Grove has to do either on the ground or to avoid getting hit hard in his sometimes questionable chin. But nobody is analyzing it how it should be: what is Almeida going to do to outwork Kendall Grove? Grove is an amazing striker who uses his intense reach to his advantage especially with high kicks and cutting knees out of his clinch. On the ground, he's long and flexible and hard to submit. All of that aside, Grove is right up there as one of the best workers in the fight game period. Alemeida just does not have enough for the old Kendall Grove (c. 2006) and he sure as hell doesn't have anything for the guy who's last fight ended in a highlight reel knockout. It may not be dominant for Kendall like his last two fights, but he doesn't need to be.
-Grove by Unanimous Decision
Amir Sadollah Vs. Johny Hendricks
Sadallah has a habit of facing guys calmly even though that guy talks way too much...and then submitting them (see CB Dollaway and...well, CB Dollaway again). Amir has been waiting a long time for a true, non-TUF, UFC debut and I'm going against the grain in the thought that Hendricks will frustrate and finish Amir. Mostly because I just don't see Sadollah getting frustrated ever. Hendricks is underestimating him.
-Sadollah by submission in Round 2
Anderson Silva Vs. Forrest Griffin
Forrest Griffin likes getting hit and hitting back...Anderson Silva will hit him. It's widely believed that it will take a miracle upset for anyone in the UFC to beat Anderson Silva...Forrest Griffin loves being a miracle upset. What does this mean? Hell if I know because this is a toss up. If Silva needs a highly contested wake up fight, he's got the right guy. No matter what, this won't go anywhere near a decision.
-Silva by TKO in Round 2
BJ Penn Vs. Kenny Florian
We might as well call this Penn/Florian I because I see this becoming a staple over the next several years. Fact is with the recent influx of Affliction heavyweight fighters, the lightweight division may be the UFC's weakest. So, other than Diego Sanchez, I don't see any other real possible challengers arise for the winner of this fight for a while. While that's nice and I see the third fight being the rubber match in the long run if it goes that route, nothing changes that Kenny Florian has worked too hard to get here. I believe that BJ Penn woke up after the GSP fight and isn't just resting on his laurels now, but I still think that KenFlo has put more effort, more passion and more drive into this run. This is so so so far from the Season One TUF runner-up Kenny Florian, it's unbelievable. You want BJ's belt? You get BJ's belt.
-Florian by submission in Round 4 to become the new UFC Lightweight Champion
>PRELIM FIGHTS
Jesse Lennox Vs. Danillo Villefort
Should be a strong welterweight fight with WEC guys making their UFC debuts. Considering the pace that is natural in WEC, I (like most people) expect a slugfest here.
-Villefort by TKO in Round 1
George Sotiropoulos Vs. George Roop
A lot of former TUF competitors on the card tonight, including three winners on the main card. In this match of of TUF 6 and TUF 8 fighters, I'm going to take the old Team Serra favorite just because he has so many more tools than Roop at this point even though I think Roop will enjoy more longterm success.
-Sotiropoulos by TKO in Round 2
Matthew Riddle Vs. Dan Cramer
These two guys both need the win and will want it since the loss will be a first for either of them in their short careers. Experience has most giving the edge to Riddle, but for some reason I just have never been able to see him as a serious fight. Cramer WILL make the most of this chance while Riddle only 'might.'
-Cramer by Unanimous Decision
Thales Leites Vs. Alessio Sakara
Quick and to the point: Sakara is boring.
-Leites by KO in Round 1
Tamdan McCrory Vs. John Howard
Howard must be six shades of stupid to accept a fight with a guy who is NINE inches taller and likely in his last welterweight fight before moving up to middleweight. No slugfest, just a smashfest. With the reach advantage huge here, it's hard to not expect a KO, McCrory likes his ground game and I don't think it will take him long to stop Howard.
-McCrory by submission in Round 1
Shane Nelson Vs. Aaron Riley
Because of the ending of their previous fight, I would assume there is no lack of dislike between these two here and that may be the difference. At the end of the day, Nelson seems like the more poised person and fighter who can't put all other things aside and just fight.
-Nelson by submission in Round 3
>MAIN CARD
Josh Neer Vs. Kurt Pellegrino
This is an interesting fight in the fact that both men have so much to win and also so much to lose in this fight. Neer however is just more talented on the ground and if this one goes there, he's top dog. But Kurt won't be so easy to be taken down, even if Neer is a bit bigger.
-Neer by submission in Round 2
Kendall Grove Vs. Ricardo Almeida
No secret to anyone I talk MMA with, I am a huge Kendall Grove fan. That said, this opinion (kind of unlike my UFC 100 predict of Michael Bisping) has nothing to do with that fandom. Many people have analyzed this fight as what Grove has to do either on the ground or to avoid getting hit hard in his sometimes questionable chin. But nobody is analyzing it how it should be: what is Almeida going to do to outwork Kendall Grove? Grove is an amazing striker who uses his intense reach to his advantage especially with high kicks and cutting knees out of his clinch. On the ground, he's long and flexible and hard to submit. All of that aside, Grove is right up there as one of the best workers in the fight game period. Alemeida just does not have enough for the old Kendall Grove (c. 2006) and he sure as hell doesn't have anything for the guy who's last fight ended in a highlight reel knockout. It may not be dominant for Kendall like his last two fights, but he doesn't need to be.
-Grove by Unanimous Decision
Amir Sadollah Vs. Johny Hendricks
Sadallah has a habit of facing guys calmly even though that guy talks way too much...and then submitting them (see CB Dollaway and...well, CB Dollaway again). Amir has been waiting a long time for a true, non-TUF, UFC debut and I'm going against the grain in the thought that Hendricks will frustrate and finish Amir. Mostly because I just don't see Sadollah getting frustrated ever. Hendricks is underestimating him.
-Sadollah by submission in Round 2
Anderson Silva Vs. Forrest Griffin
Forrest Griffin likes getting hit and hitting back...Anderson Silva will hit him. It's widely believed that it will take a miracle upset for anyone in the UFC to beat Anderson Silva...Forrest Griffin loves being a miracle upset. What does this mean? Hell if I know because this is a toss up. If Silva needs a highly contested wake up fight, he's got the right guy. No matter what, this won't go anywhere near a decision.
-Silva by TKO in Round 2
BJ Penn Vs. Kenny Florian
We might as well call this Penn/Florian I because I see this becoming a staple over the next several years. Fact is with the recent influx of Affliction heavyweight fighters, the lightweight division may be the UFC's weakest. So, other than Diego Sanchez, I don't see any other real possible challengers arise for the winner of this fight for a while. While that's nice and I see the third fight being the rubber match in the long run if it goes that route, nothing changes that Kenny Florian has worked too hard to get here. I believe that BJ Penn woke up after the GSP fight and isn't just resting on his laurels now, but I still think that KenFlo has put more effort, more passion and more drive into this run. This is so so so far from the Season One TUF runner-up Kenny Florian, it's unbelievable. You want BJ's belt? You get BJ's belt.
-Florian by submission in Round 4 to become the new UFC Lightweight Champion
Saturday, June 20, 2009
> Diego proves himself legit
I don't care what anyone else says, including the judges in tonight's split decision...Diego Sanchez is legit.
I don't mean he was just legit tonight in his mostly one sided slugfest with Clay Guida.
I don't mean he is just legit at his semi-new home of the 155 weight class.
I mean he is legit as one of the world's best pound-for-pound fighters.
On tonight's Ultimate Finale Live, Diego opened up running through Guida like a machine. He swung and swung and swung until he busted Clay up and probably broke his nose. Then Diego delivered a vicious head kick that put Guida on his ass and forced commentators Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg to proclaim what a "great chin" Guida had for taking that kick. Great chins are nice and all, but the only way you ever find out who has one is if they are taking shots.
Me personally, I don't know what kind of a chin Diego Sanchez had tonight. Because even when he was not controlling the fight, only in the second round, he was landing cutting elbows from the bottom that made Guida bleed like a stuck pig.
Now, Diego is likely on to challange the winner of this Fall's BJ Penn/Kenny Florian title fight and both of those guys should be worried for the Lightweight division's real top dog. Penn is solid, but aging. Florian is GREATLY improved from the guy Sanchez toppled for the original Ultimate Fighter crown. But neither is as explosive, hungry, deep and relentless as Diego Sanchez. Right now, I may only rank Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva as people who I know could beat Diego (taking into consideration they are close in weight class and/or Diego's non-fighting weight...I know he wouldn't fare well against heavyweights but only because they are so much bigger).
In the latest edition of Fight! Magazine, they have a new reader poll for the Top 10 Pound-for-Pound fighters. Next month, Diego should be on it. I question the additions to this list of Frank Mir (9) and even Fedor Emelianenko (2), the second of which doesn't even face the stiffest competition in his weight class seeing as how Affliction is weak.
He has won four straight, is 10-2 in the octogon and is now coming off two straight Fight of the Night performances. The man is legit and I feel bad for whoever has to stand in his way next.
I don't mean he was just legit tonight in his mostly one sided slugfest with Clay Guida.
I don't mean he is just legit at his semi-new home of the 155 weight class.
I mean he is legit as one of the world's best pound-for-pound fighters.
On tonight's Ultimate Finale Live, Diego opened up running through Guida like a machine. He swung and swung and swung until he busted Clay up and probably broke his nose. Then Diego delivered a vicious head kick that put Guida on his ass and forced commentators Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg to proclaim what a "great chin" Guida had for taking that kick. Great chins are nice and all, but the only way you ever find out who has one is if they are taking shots.
Me personally, I don't know what kind of a chin Diego Sanchez had tonight. Because even when he was not controlling the fight, only in the second round, he was landing cutting elbows from the bottom that made Guida bleed like a stuck pig.
Now, Diego is likely on to challange the winner of this Fall's BJ Penn/Kenny Florian title fight and both of those guys should be worried for the Lightweight division's real top dog. Penn is solid, but aging. Florian is GREATLY improved from the guy Sanchez toppled for the original Ultimate Fighter crown. But neither is as explosive, hungry, deep and relentless as Diego Sanchez. Right now, I may only rank Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva as people who I know could beat Diego (taking into consideration they are close in weight class and/or Diego's non-fighting weight...I know he wouldn't fare well against heavyweights but only because they are so much bigger).
In the latest edition of Fight! Magazine, they have a new reader poll for the Top 10 Pound-for-Pound fighters. Next month, Diego should be on it. I question the additions to this list of Frank Mir (9) and even Fedor Emelianenko (2), the second of which doesn't even face the stiffest competition in his weight class seeing as how Affliction is weak.
He has won four straight, is 10-2 in the octogon and is now coming off two straight Fight of the Night performances. The man is legit and I feel bad for whoever has to stand in his way next.
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