Showing posts with label Cain Velasquez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cain Velasquez. Show all posts

Friday, January 2, 2015

Who will end 2015 as UFC champions?

With all of the big fights on the horizon this year, the championship situations (pending health) could get very interesting. So here are my, probably bold predictions about who ends 2015 holding UFC gold.

HEAVYWEIGHT - Cain Velasquez
This is one of the easier ones to predict. Cain will clash with Fabricio Werdum soon to get rid of that fake, pops up to often, interim belt. Werdum is a solid heavyweight but I don't think he can compete with the champ. Honestly, give Mark Hunt more time to train and I think he takes Werdum in that interim bout. I think the massive weight loss hurt Hunt more than Werdum could have. I only see Cain fighting twice in 2015 and those will be wins over Werdum and one more decisive victory over Junior Dos Santos, which could be JDS' final shot at gold. It also clears the way for new challengers for Velasquez in 2016, which will include Stipe Miocic, Mark Hunt, Andrei Arlovski and.....see below.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT - Alexander Gustafsson
Four. That is how many times the UFC Light Heavyweight title will be defended in 2015. The first comes tomorrow where I think Daniel Cormier will outclass Jon Jones and take the title from him. After that, Bones will clearly get an immediate rematch and as much as I do not like him, he clearly will deserve one and I think he takes the title back in that rematch, which leaves a clear cut need for a trilogy bout, but not so fast. Gustafsson will take out Anthony Johnson and while Cormier/Jones II pushes him back out of a shot, he will take on and defeat Rashad Evans and Dana White won't be able to ignore the Swede anymore. Gustafsson will get Jones and beat him by decision to take the title. This will send Jones to the heavyweight division for a clash with Cain Velasquez in 2016. Cormier will opt to heal up for the rest of 2015 while Gustafsson beats Ryan Bader for this final defense of the year.

MIDDLEWEIGHT - Anderson Silva
This contradicts my hope for the Silva/Diaz fight this month as I really want Diaz to win and I may even pick him to win before that weekend. But for arguments sake, I really have to go with Silva winning that fight because of his size and experience at 185 pounds. After the win over Diaz, it is silly to make any fight other than Weidman/Silva III after Chris soundly puts away Vitor Belfort. There are plenty of other challengers in the division, but none that stand out. That said, I think Silva KO's Weidman in a rematch, even if it is by fluky strike. Weidman has also been too lucky to avoid the injury bug, so I think after a loss to Silva he will find himself on the shelf for the rest of 2015, having to wait out a title rematch until 2016. Silva will defend the belt one more time to close the year by flattening Jacare Souza. Weidman will be next in line for 2016, followed by Luke Rockhold.

WELTERWEIGHT - Kelvin Gastelum
This was the hardest choice to make in this entire field with a pretty even array of fighters in the division. And so, I am going to go big here. Robbie Lawler will decisively end his feud with Johny Hendricks by knocking him out in the trilogy finale. Shortly after that, the attention of the division will switch to the news that Georges St. Pierre will be making his return to the UFC, but Dana White, still unhappy with GSP, will make him fight someone else first and in turn, Lawler will then successfully defend the title against GSP mate Rory MacDonald. GSP's will want to time his return out right and a warm up fight against Matt Brown won't happen until October, which will keep the longtime division kingpin from a shot at the belt in 2015 even after he defeats Brown. In the meantime, 2015 will see a still unlikely contender feast on Tyron Woodley and Hector Lombard and the year will end is the most unlikely fashion as Kelvin Gastelum will secure an out-of-nowhere rear naked choke that force Robbie Lawler to tap out in the second round and relinquish his title around the holidays.

LIGHTWEIGHT - Anthony Pettis
No lightweight in the world is going to touch Anthony Pettis and I will go even farther and say he will stay healthy in 2015 and go on to defend his title five times to really put him on top of the conversation as the best 155 pounder the UFC has ever seen. I think Rafael Dos Anjos will get the first shot and will get TKO'd in the second round because his defense is just not loose enough to handle the unorthodox striking of Showtime. Next up will be Khabib Nurmagomedov and it will be Showtime's toughest challenge all year. The fight will go five rounds and Showtime will win 48-47, 48-47 and 49-46 after Khabib abandons his takedown plans when Pettis throws on a couple of tight, but barely escapable submissions. Defense three will be against the undefeated Myles Jury who will be coming off a win over Benson Henderson. Pettis stops Jury in this one. The fourth defense will be the returning TJ Grant and and the rust will be apparent for Grant. The fifth defense could be a toss up. For ratings sake, I am saying it is a rematch with Donald Cerrone that will end the same as the first one, But my heart wants this fifth defense to be against Michael Johnson, who could shoot up the 155-rankings this year with some big wins. It all sets up 2016's super fight for Pettis against Jose Aldo.

FEATHERWEIGHT - Frankie Edgar
Why Frankie? Because Jose Aldo leaves the division after one more fight. It is clear what is next for Aldo: Conor McGregor, who will demolish Denis Siver to get a title shot, but will get caught with something spinning in the fifth round of an absolute war with Aldo. McGregor will break his jaw in the loss and sit out almost all, if not all of 2015 to recover, but don't worry he will have UFC gold eventually. In the mean time, the UFC needs a new featherweight champion after Aldo declare the division cleared out and heads to the lightweight division (though an injury will scrap him from a December meeting with Pettis, hence setting up Cerrone for the title shot). The UFC turns to Frankie Edgar/Chad Mendes to crown a new champ and Edgar comes across the victor on the close scorecards. He'll defend the belt one more time to close out 2015 by TKO'ing Ricardo Lamas and setting up a showdown with the returning McGregor in 2016.

BANTAMWEIGHT - TJ Dillashaw
Get used to the look of a little kid on Christmas. Because that is exactly what TJ looks like as he grins at his UFC title belt. But trust me, he's not nice little innocent kid and Dillashaw is going to get vicious this year. He will start the year by finishing an overzealous Renan Barao in the second or third round, then go on to defeat Raphael Assuncao pretty clearly in their long awaited (to Raphael anyway) rematch. With Dominick Cruz still on the shelf for a while longer, John Dodson will make the jump up to 135 for a rematch of their Ultimate Fighter finals fight, but this time Dillashaw is quicker to the draw and gets the TKO in the fifth round. The win will be a great benchmark for Dillashaw's year as a top tier pound for pound fighter and again set up a battle with Alpha Male hater Cruz for 2016. And about Urijah Faber? The Alpha Male leader will leave the 135 pound division and head back up to featherweight to avoid having to fight Dillashaw.

FLYWEIGHT - Demetrious Johnson
A year of rematches awaits Mighty Mouse, who has already cleared out this division. First up will be John Dodson, who has given Johnson his best fight so far at 125 but this one ends the same: a lot of great moments for Dodson, but not enough as Johnson retains by non-controversial decision. He will follow it up by pushing back Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez in back to back fights that don't make the challengers look like they have anything at all for the 125 pound kingpin. Those fights will finish out the year for Johnson, who will head back up to 135 sometime in 2016 after clearing out the division for a second time with one or two more early defenses in 2016. So there will eventually be a second ever UFC Flyweight champion, I just don't see it happening this year.

WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT - Ronda Rousey
Because honestly, who is going to beat her? Dana White sees the draw in the Cyborg fight and I think eventually money talks and Rousey, who isn't the crazy hot head that Santos and Ortiz are, will move up and either have a catchweight fight or the UFC will add a Featherweight Women's Title just so Rousey/Cyborg can happen and then there can be a second ever UFC Bantamweight Women's Champ. But like with the men's 125-pound title, 2015 isn't that year. Instead, Rousey will take out Cat Zingano in the second round via armbar after isolating Cat's punching power. Rousey will then TKO Bethe Correia, who really doesn't deserve a title shot to begin with. Even though she will want a break to film a movie, I can see the UFC talking Rousey into one more defense for the year and if that happens, it will be a big money fight with Holly Holm.

WOMEN'S STRAW WEIGHT - Rose Namajunas
This title will see three champions in 2015 as the first champion, Carla Esparza will lose the title in her first ever defense to Jonna Jedrzejczyk, who will then go on to successfully defend against Tecia Torres in a wild affair. Esparza will win the belt back, but turn around to lose it to Namajunas almost exactly one year to the date of their first meeting. I expect Namajunas to tackle Jessica Penne and Tecia Torres on her road to another shot and her confidence and striking game will be at all time high so she can take advantage of her second shot at UFC gold. This is an interesting division and I can see the title bouncing around a lot, ala the Light Heavyweight title before Jon Jones first won it from Shogun Rua.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS FOR 2016:
Cain Velasquez vs. Jon Jones
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Daniel Cormier
Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman IV
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Georges St. Pierre
Anthony Pettis vs. Jose Also
Frankie Edgar vs. Conor McGregor
TJ Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz
Rondo Rousey vs. Cyborg Santos
Rose Namajunas vs. Joanna Calderwood

Sunday, February 2, 2014

The next title fights the UFC should make

It has become a common theme on MMA websites that I frequent to try and play matchmaker. As if Joe Silva or Sean Shelby have it easy. And while those are all good and such, I found myself reading one today and having my own strong feelings on some fights that need to be made for UFC gold.

And no, I don't give a single care about the UFC's rankings when determining this, simply what would be best for business, what would draw interest based slightly on said ratings.

Women's Bantamweight
Who cares? And no that has nothing to do with the gender of the division. Nobody currently in the UFC is going to stop Ronda Rousey. Her next fight is already set and it will end, in my expert opinion, via arm bar. Like all of them. The only draw for a fight she really could have outside of Miesha Tate (and we all knew how that would end), is Cyborg. And that fight isn't happening. The weight classes are different, Dana White isn't risking a Ronda loss and as long as Cyborg has Tito Ortiz representing her, she won't sniff the UFC. What makes this even tougher? The only other fight I could care about is Julianna Pena. Being Tate's right hand woman, her and Rousey's displeasure for each other and her skill level made Pena a clear choice to challenge Ronda had she not torn her entire leg off it's bone (theoretically) and won her next fight.
Next Fight: Ronda Rousey vs. Cat Zingano

Flyweight
I have no...and I mean no desire to see Demetrious Johnson fight a "super fight" in a division he was just part of not too long ago. He was better than almost everyone there, but not good enough to take the title from a guy who Renan Barao would "dominate" (see the pun?). The tough part for Mighty Mouse is that it doesn't take much to clear out this division. The top three contenders have fallen to Johnson and while I think another Dodson fight would be entertaining, I don't see it going any differently. So this is where I split off and say that someone needs to drop down from 135 to face him and the most logical person is someone I see to be between the biggest rock and hard place at said weight.
Next Fight: Demetrious Johnson vs. TJ Dillashaw

Men's Bantamweight
The way last night's fight ended leads to only one conclusion: give the guy ONE MORE SHOT. No one is clamoring to see Raphael Assuncao fight for the title. It would be worse than Ricardo Lamas' featherweight fight last night. And the dude barely (and by barely, I mean not really) beat Dillashaw. McDonald has lost 2 straight, Cruz is still out, Barao just beat Wineland. I see no interest in this division other than rematching what we barely saw last night (thanks Herb Dean).
Next Fight: Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber 3

Featherweight
So the kingpin has left for 155-ier pastures. Good. Now the next two guys in line without a fight booked can fight for the title right? Think about it, the next featherweight champion of the world is the winner of Chad Mendes and Cub Swanson! Not so fast....I mean, Mendes is ok and I have really grown to like Cub Swanson. But as champion, neither one of them has much more drawing power than stale grilled cheese. We have enough vanilla champions and contenders (see Weidman, Chris and Hendricks, Johny) that we don't need Mendes and I don't think Swanson is championship caliber or would win that fight. There is only one featherweight fight that I am excited about currently, it is already booked (date TBD), so let's make it for the crown. Why not? It may not be the right thing to do, but it will be the most exciting. And hell, at least one of them is ranked high in the division. Time to fill Aldo's impending vacancy.
Next Fight: Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn 3

Lightweight
We already know what the next fight is and it is by far the right one. I lend no credence to any thought that says we need Anthony Pettis/Benson Henderson 3....TJ Grant or Josh Thomson would just make me not care...and while Gilbert Melendez getting a shot is interesting (after all, when WEC and Strikeforce were there, one could make an argument that they had the best lightweights in Pettis and Gil), I think anyone who shays away from Pettis/Aldo is crazy. What is also crazy is that we are more than likely about to see that fight for Pettis' 155-pound title a year after we were supposed to see it for Aldo's 145-pound crown. And honestly, I'd like to see the winner be a duel champion. If Aldo wins, don't make his drop the belt at 145 or if Pettis wins, let him drop down to fight the winner of the vacancy. OR!!!! How about old school WWF title vs. title? Winner take all?
Next Fight: Anthony Pettis vs. Jose Aldo

Welterweight
Here is another division where we already know the next fight, again to fill a vacancy. So I again am just going to skip ahead and pretend that I know that Johny Hendricks is going to win the title. I don't think Dana White dares to not let him. Unless Robbie Lawler knocks him clean out cold, there is no way that Lawler leaves their contest with the belt. And even if he does, there is only one top contender because the rest of the division is just kind of eh. And either way, Hendricks or Lawler get beat down by the top contender in my mind.
Next Fight: Johny Hendricks vs. Carlos Condit

Middleweight
Where to begin. I think Chris Weidman is boring. I think he beat Anderson Silva by doing the thing we all knew would beat Anderson Silva, he caught him not being serious. Demian Maia could have beat Anderson Silva if he wasn't acting dumber. The only other way, which Weidman could also have easily done, is to wrestle Anderson Silva. Chael Sonnen could have beat Anderson Silva if he was paying attention at the end of their fight. And in the second fight, well yeah...fluke. Behind him, I care so little to see Vitor Belfort win the title, but at least he would be exciting. Behind them, nobody cares and Ronaldo Souza, Lyoto Machida shouldn't be ranked so high in a division he's never fought in. So if you are going to make Souza/Machida, then you'd have an ok contender. But you aren't. Souza is facing Francois Carmont, for some reason. And Machida is facing the ninth ranked 205-pounder because why not. So call it homer, call it confusion on the UFC's middleweight booking, but give the Michael Bisping/Tim Kennedy winner the next shot. Because at least their fight makes sense.
Next Fight: Vitor Belfort vs. Michael Bisping 2

Light Heavyweight
This is a stupid question.
Next Fight: Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson 2

Heavyweight
This is a moot point for a while until the champion is healthy again. And even then, the UFC is currently in a funk that it will continue to be in for a while. That funk: Junior Dos Santos is better than everyone in the division not named Cain Velasquez. So what do you do with that. There are no heavyweight fights or contenders to clamor for. So we might as well get on the hype train.
Next Fight: Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Diego Sanchez needs to stop taking punishment

Diego Sanchez is likely always going to have a job in the UFC.

On top of being the original Ultimate Fighter, by winning a 185 pound bloat off with Kenny Florian, he always has and always will deliver high octane and exciting fights.

But, that isn't always a good thing for Diego. Saturday night highlighted once again why it may be time for him to leave those gloves laying in the middle of the cage, remembered for what he was while he can still remember anything.

Early victories over Nick Diaz and Joe Riggs showed that a younger, thriving Diego was capable of a lot. After his setbacks to Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck and a drop down to the Lightweight division, he plowed through back to back Fight of the Night honors against Joe Stevenson and an all-time great fight with Clay Guida. Including his 155 pound debut against Stevenson, he was won 5 of his last 9, with six Fight of the Night honors during that stretch. So there is no doubt that entertainment is his forte with his particular style.

The many faces of Diego Sanchez post fight.
They usually have a lot of (red) things in common.

I was excited about his return to 155 pounds, where he had his most success, culminating in a title shot again BJ Penn. It was in that title fight that he was mutilated. But going into Friday's weigh ins for his UFC 166 battle with Gilbert Melendez, Diego looked cut and like he could make another run at the top at 155. What happened after is being considered a fight of the year candidate, but to me that is just surface talk.

The reality, and a sad one to me, is that Gilbert trounced Diego all over that cage. While both men came forward with flurries worthy of being on UFC fight highlights and show openings for years, Melendez landed quicker and more precise. Diego himself, the instigator of the flurries, barely landed.

Instead he left after another decision, this one a loss, with a familiar combination of a massively swollen face and a fountain of blood running into every crevasse on that face. It's years of abuse, it's a lot of scar tissue and it's just in his DNA to bruise easy and bleed heavily.

But it's hard to watch, sad to see and makes me question whether now is the time for Dana White, or somebody else close to Diego, to say that enough is enough. Clearly Dana White has no issue making known how he feels about fighters taking too much punishment. He virtually pushed Chuck Liddell and Matt Hughes into retirement, hinted vigorously at Forrest Griffin and after that same UFC 166 card, he was straight forward in how Junior Dos Santos' corner should have thrown in the towel midway through yet another beating at the hands of Cain Velasquez.

So why not feel the same about Diego? Just because the fight was entertaining? Dana has said many times things along the lines of Diego having a heart matched only by his chin. But both having a lot of heart and having a steel chin really only translate to one, similar thing, in MMA: you have, often, gotten the total crap kicked out of you.

When all is said and done, Diego's role in the UFC's development and his credit as perhaps the most entertaining fighter in the sports history, should be enough for Hall of Fame consideration. He will retire, whenever that is, as one of the very better fighters to never wear UFC gold.

But now is the time. Diego has taken too much punishment and is no longer doing himself or anyone else any favors.


13-6 is a respectable mark inside the Octagon, but I would really like to see his 20th UFC fight as his swan song. Diego deserves a proper sendoff and as one of the guys who really set the UFC off (as much as Griffin and Stephan Bonnar get the most attention for that front, that night and that season of TUF), he absolutely deserves better than what he has been getting.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

>UFC 121 Quick Picks

Past Predictions (UFC 100-102, 104-111, 113-114, 117-120, UFC on VERSUS 1-2): 104-91-2
Last Card: 4-5-1

Prelims
Jon Madsen def. Gilbert Yvel
Chris Camozzi def. Dong Yi Yang
Paul Taylor def. Sam Stout
Mike Guymon def. Daniel Roberts

Spike TV Prelims
Patrick Cote def. Tom Lawlor
Court McGee def. Ryan Jensen

Main Card
Gabriel Gonzaga def. Brendan Schaub
Tito Ortiz def. Matt Hamill
Diego Sanchez def. Paulo Thiago
Jake Shields def. Martin Kampmann
Cain Velasquez def. Brock Lesnar to become NEW UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION

Thursday, February 18, 2010

UFC 110 Predictions (Aussie Time!)

UFC Predictions (100-102, 104-109) 45-51-1 - last card: 7-4

The UFC 110 card is stacked! Very intriguing matches from top to bottom of the main card and still, there is not much slack, lack of name recognition or interest on the undercard with the exception of the opener.

(Edited on 2/19 due to injuries and replacements)

James Te Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac
~I know little about these guys, but what I do know tells me that Te Huna will get the kind of reaction in this country that Bisping gets in England.
Te Huna by 3rd Round TKO

C.B. Dollaway vs. Goran Reljic
~We all know I dislike Dollaway, but this pick is based more on Reljic's submission game compared to CB's lack of a submission defense. It's a clear one to me and boy hasn't CB been a dissapointment from all his hype on The Ultimate Fighter?
Reljic by 2nd Round Submission (armbar maybe?)

Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster
~This could be a slug fest or a very methodically paced one. If Lytle pushes the pace, he's in the drivers seat, but will he hold back in fear of getting caught by the sneakier Foster? Nah.
Lytle by 1st Round KO

Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
~It is not "loser leaves town" but both of these guys have had a ton of potential, decent momentum and were considered a couple of the best fighters to not win their seasons on TUF. Now, they both need a win to stay relevant. While Forrest Griffin is main eventing (he beat Bonnar in the TUF1 finale) and Ryan Bader (the winner of K-Sos' division on TUF) is on the main card of this show, these two are headlining the prelims. If they aren't careful here, they won't even be doing that. It will be a close one no matter if they push the pace or not.
Soszynski by Unanimous Decision

MAIN CARD
Mirko Cro Cop vs. Ben Rothwell (make that Anthony Perosh)

~If Rothwell lost, he was likely Strikeforce bound because he's been a dissapointment so far. Well, he's out so who cares. And instead of Cro Cop just getting Sinosic's opponent, we get a new guy...two days out from a fight and someone who wasn't on the card or training to fight Saturday is stepping up to take on Cro Cop? Moron. New opponent but the end results doesn't change in my mind, thought for entirely different reasons.
Cro Cop by 1st Round KO (kick in the head!)

Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader
~This is what I have been waiting for since his TUF win...Ryan Bader is going to have to throw. Leaving nothing behind and just swing because Jardine is NO joke. I like Bader, he's one of my top 15 favorite fighters period, but I don't know if he's on the right level yet, sadly.
Jardine by 3rd Round TKO

Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropolous
~So much momentum in this fight, it is a shame to see some of it slowed down. But really, if you are Joe Daddy, why would you ever take THIS fight in THIS location?
Sotiropolous by 2nd Round Submission

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping
~While I would love to say that Bisping is going to knock Silva out (like I said about Dan Henderson), it just isn't going to happen. Note to Bisping: don't circle into his strong hand! Bisping showed tremendous heart and work against Denis Kang in a much needed rebound. If this goes the distance, Silva will get the nod...if this ends in a one punch knockout, Silva will get the nod...this won't end in submission so it doesn't really matter here...but if this ends because one guy catches another with hit, jars him, knocks him down and then pounces on him causing the ref to step in..well.....
Bisping by 2nd Round TKO (ref stoppage)

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
~This is where we learn if Cain really is ready. A win here should put him first in line for the Winner of the Mir/Carwin/Lesnar fight-off that is coming this spring/summer. Though in reality, Big Nog will be in the same position if he wins. Velasquez CAN afford this loss, Nog can't and that should make all the difference in the world and make Nog charge forward like a bulldozer...too bad Cain's a tank that will just blow your ass up.
Velasquez by 2nd Round KO

Friday, October 23, 2009

> UFC 104 Predictions

So yeah, I skipped 103 and that was probably for the best considering how terrible my prognostication was for UFC's 100, 101 and 102! But, today as I am actually pretty excited that a new Gracie (Rolles) will be stepping into the UFC cage, I decided to give a brief prediction list for UFC 104 that takes place tomorrow night.

UFC Predictions (100-102): 8-25 - last card: 2-9

UFC 104 PreLims
Razak Al-Hassan def. Kyle Kingsbury
Second Round TKO

Chase Gormley def. Stefan Struve
Unanimous Decision

Jorge Rivera def. Rob Kimmons
Split Decision

Chael Sonnen def. Yushin Okami
Unanimous Decision

Spike TV Televised
Antoni Hardonk def. Pat Barry
First Round KO

Ryan Bader def. Eric Schafer
Third Round TKO

MAIN CARD
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
This has all the potential to be the fight of the night by far. Yoshida has some impressive wins and devestating losses, but can be a beast. The fact that 'Rumble' is cutting up to 50 pounds to fight Yoshida could be bad or good. If he cut right, he's going to a beastly welterweight, if he cut wrong he will be fatigued. Either way, his knockout power of highlight reel proportions is not questioned.
-Anthony Johnson by Second Round KnockOut

Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher
It is a must win for them both to not backslide at all. And as much as I like Fisher's heart and determination overall, it can't outweigh Stevenson's current drive.
-Joe 'Daddy' Stevenson by Unanimous Decision

Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer
Least interesting main card fight to be and I'd honestly rather see the Ryan Bader fight on the show. I don't think it is as close as most people are saying.
-Josh Neer by by Third Round Submssion

Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
This is the ultimate test for Cain, who is on the fringe of a title fight, possibly against the winner of Lesnar/Carwin. If he wins, he has to get that shot. But he has yet to face off against someone with the skill level of Rothwell, who is pretty technical in heavyweight standards. If they stand and slug, this is Velasquez' match, but Rothwell was undefeated in the IFL for a reason and thats because he will not play to his opponents' strengths. That said, I like to go against the grain of most other predictors and honestly, Cain has that cocky swagger for a reason.
-Cain Velasquez by First Round KO

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
(UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout)
I was dead wrong about Lyoto Machida when he found Rashad Evans. My thoughts then were if it goes the distance, Machida wins and if it ends early it will be by KO and it's the heavy handed Evans. So imagine my surprise when Machida knocked Rashad out. So how will the fight with Shogun go? If it goes the distance...it's Machida's fight and if not, Rua will look to upset. Why stick with this same formula I was wrong with before? Rua hasn't had to go deep lately and I don't know if he can sustain for five full rounds. His best bet to win the title is to go hard early to look and catch Lyoto. Easier said that done, right? Well if there is a current Light Heavyweight that can do it, it's not Rashad Evans, it's not Forrest Griffin, it's not....Rampage Jackson....it IS Shogun Rua. Conventional wisdom aside:
-Mauricio Shogun Rua by 3rd Round TKO to become the NEW UFC LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION