UFC Fight Night: McGregor v. Siver Predictions

Prediction Watch
UFC 182: 5-6
2015 Overall: 5-6
2015 Title Matches: 0-1

Now on to the next event!

The undercard
Matt Van Buren vs. Sean O'Connell
Van Buren really is one of those Luke Cummo-esque silent assassins from The Ultimate Fighter. This is a really tight matchup that is fairly evenly matched overall. In the end, I think that reach will be the advantage in a fight that will like stay standing. Van Buren by decision

Tateki Matsuda vs. Joby Sanchez
Sanchez has finished every fight he has won, with a 6-1 record but I think this really is a tossup fight. Matsuda by decision

Charles Rosa vs. Sean Soriano
Soriano has some great experience but Rosa is a finisher with a high submission rate. Rosa is very slick anywhere this fight takes place, even off his back. Rosa by submission

Johnny Case vs. Frankie Perez
Perez is making his UFC debut and Case has a growing fan base of those in the industry in the know. The kid has 23 fights at 25 years old and his experience on all levels. His guillotine in his UFC debut was a thing of beauty and I think he has a future, though probably not at his current weight. Case by TKO

Patrick Holohan vs. Shane Howell
Howell is a strong underdog and I don't care about anything in this fight but the crowd. I am still not sold on Holohan as a prospect with longevity, but this night...in Boston...he rules this one. Holohan by TKO

Zhang Lipeng vs. Chris Wade
Where does this fight go? My guess is that Lipeng does not have the ability to keep it off the ground and he gets in trouble often. Not that I think Wade is a finisher. Wade by decision

John Howard vs. Lorenz Larkin
Can I please get a slugfest? Popular opinion here is that this goes to a decision but I think that is because too many prognosticators won't commit. This one could, should and hopefully will get nasty and violent. However, Howard has me doubting that because of his high-five fest with Uriah Hall that could have been awesome. My guess is he won't let that happen twice and Larkin will also have to throw bombs. Someone is going night-night. Howard by KO

Cathal Pendred vs. Sean Spencer
The UFC so badly wants Pendred to be a power at 170 that can match McGregor's draw. He isn't and he won't be. But they gave him a quite favorable matchup here. Pendred, like all the Irish, will feed off the Boston crowd. He desperately needs an impressive performance and probably a finish here to keep fans interested in the hype. Pendred by decision 

Main card
Norman Parke vs. Gleison Tibau
This is a huge opportunity for Parke and also to show that the entire TUF: The Smashes season was not a waste. He's coming in as the underdog because Tibau has loads and loads of experience in 49 pro fights and still has massively heavy hands. This one too could be a grind them out type of war and could see both men in loads of trouble. While I don't doubt Tibau's strength, I have always been a fan of Parke's versatility. Parke by decision 

Uriah Hall vs. Ron Stallings
Who is Ron Stallings? Does it matter. Hall knows that he has to stop caring about people again. If he can do that mentally, then he is a head smashing machine with cringe inducing power. Hall by KO

Benson Henderson vs. Donald Cerrone
As much as I looked forward to the Alvarez fight, this one should be great too. UFC card #2 for 2015 and Cerrone fight #2 of 2015. He is on the way up, Henderson is on the way down. Bendo needs to win this fight to stay relevant at the top of this division or if he does actually move up to Welterweight. Unfortunately for Cerrone, a win here still probably leaves him a win away from a title shot because of the log jam at 155. I think Bendo gets desperate and Bendo desperate is Bendo reckless. Plus, I made a crucial mistake in not picking 'Cowboy" a couple of weeks ago against Myles Jury. Cerrone by TKO

Conor McGregor vs. Dennis Siver
We know what this. Dennis Siver isn't supposed to win. He can't win, can he? He has been in the UFC since 2007 when McGregor was 19 and had not had a pro fight. In that time, Siver has only lost to six guys and a collection that includes Cub Swanson, Donald Cerrone, Ross Pearson, Melvin Guillard and Gray Maynard isn't so bad. But those names also show that Siver wilts under the pressure. McGregor hasn't lost since 2010 and regardless of who is better here, he would ride the hype, the momentum and the Boston crowd into the night. Lucky for him, he is just better at this stage of his career. Siver is a hulking fighter at any weight, especially 145, but he doesn't have the speed, stamina or youth to keep up with McGregor. Expect Siver to land something, to remind McGregor he is in a fight and not a side show. But that strike won't be significant enough, not even by a little bit. McGregor is just too good for Dennis Siver with a Jose Aldo title shot looming. McGregor by TKO

UFC 182 Predictions

Once upon a time, I tried to predict each UFC event. I wasn't that good at keeping up and actually doing it, so here I am again years later with the goal of keeping up and predicting every event in 2015, starting this weekend's 2015 showcase event: UFC 182: Jones/Cormier.

The undercard
Alexis Dufrense vs. Marion Reneau
I know little about these two, but I know that Dufrense is diverse in her game and can catch you from all angles. Dufrense by TKO

Omari Akhmedov vs. Mats Nilsson
Stumped here. Nilsson by Decision

Evan Dunham vs. Rodrigo Damm
I really want Dunham to win, he was so close to the top of the 155-pound division once, but that seems so long ago now. Damm is a dangerous, dangerous opponent and although Dunham has slipped, this would still be a good name for Damm's resume. For Dunham, a loss likely means a trip to Bellator. Damm by TKO

Shawn Jordan vs. Jared Cannonier
Jordan has some of the heaviest hands in the division and is in a bad mood. Jordan by KO

Marcus Brimage vs. Cody Garbrandt
This one could be a show stealer (minus the main event). Garbrandt is making his UFC debut and is a vicious finisher at 5-0, all by stoppage. Brimage is a grinder who can also throw bombs. He had four straight wins before losing an acceptable loss to Conor McGregor and a sketchy one to Russell Doane. He is already back in the win column and really wants to move up the bantamweight rankings. This one ends early, ends violently. But you have to at least guess experience in one like this. Brimage by TKO

Danny Castillo vs. Paul Felder
Like Brimage/Garbrandt, this fight is free on FS1 and probably one you don't want to miss since it is free. Felder is undefeated and has finished 2/3 of his fights. Castillo can be dangerous, but is the lesser of all of the Alpha Male guys and sometimes just doesn't bring his 'A' game. That could get dangerous. Felder by TKO

Main card
Hector Lombard vs. Josh Burkman
There is a reason Burkman has not been in the UFC for a while and this will showcase it. He is a top notch guy on lower levels but he just can't withstand something that Lombard will bring at him. Lombard by KO

Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Louis Gaudinot
UFC is pushing flyweights down our throat here on the main card to make us care about someone who may someday challenge unsuccessfully for Demetrious Johnson's title. Neither will. And I still won't care. Horiguchi by Decision

Brad Tavares vs. Nate Marquardt
Tavares needs this win to do avoid something that 'Nate the Great,' has already done: become irrelevant. Tavares will never be a top contender but staying ranked has to be a goal here to get more and more high profile match ups. Marquardt is more past his prime than Tank Abbott. Tavares by Decision

Donald Cerrone vs. Myles Jury
Jury has been on a tear, but this is by far his biggest match up. Cerrone's 2014 was stellar and a win here could get him Anthony Pettis sometime in 2015, even though he is about third in line right now. If you read my last blog, you will know I think both of these guys end up with title shots this year, but I don't think Cerrone is taking Jury seriously enough heading into this one. In Cerrone's eyes, Jury isn't undefeated, but I think he's about to find out just how long ago that close decision exhibition loss to Al Iaquinta really was. Jury by TKO

UFC Light Heavyweight Title
Jon Jones (C) vs. Daniel Cormier
If you aren't excited for this, you don't have a pulse. I think this is a very even meeting in that they both do very different things very well. The difference maker here to me is that while both will fight with emotion and anger at different times and maybe the same times, I believe Cormier will be able to harness it more and Jones will get caught being too cocky and too angry. His cockiness almost got the best of him against Vitor Belfort and I think Jones has never been cockier than he will be tomorrow night. Someone is going to get caught slipping either way. Cormier by submission