Showing posts with label Miami Heat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami Heat. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Redrafting the 2008 NBA Draft

Welcome to the official rollout of the world of one-and-dones. No longer will kids be coming straight from high school, but instead going to campus for a school year, attending classes for four months (or just long enough to stay eligible) and then going to make a pay day.

That was the story of this draft. No more high school run wild and the foreign picks have tapered off. Four of the first five and five of the first seven picks were college freshmen, making this the start of a new trend that has taken over (note that three of the biggest prospects in the 2014 Draft are all freshmen).

It was also a nice look at how poorly the Miami Heat were run for a long time. After missing out on the number one pick, which should have statistically belonged to them after the most horrendous of seasons, the team passed on at least two future Hall of Fame players to select Michael Beasley. Geez.

This was also a tough one as I legitimately saw 18 guys for these top 15 positions (sorry George Hill, JJ Hickson and Ryan Anderson.)

Also, it is the first class where my analysis doesn’t and doesn’t have to run as deep because, well, we all know about these guys and what they do. We see it every day during the NBA season and we don’t need to look back so deeply.

Pick 1: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Derrick Rose
Who they should have took: Kevin Love (5th pick)
Why: Love is perhaps the most purely dominant player from this draft class. His size and agility make him hard to guard no matter where he is on the floor. In a class that is pretty damn good today, Love shines because he is such a complete players. Teaming him with Joakim Noah and other complimentary players would have made the Bulls the team to beat in the East almost every year since this draft.

Pick 2: Miami Heat
Who they took: Michael Beasley
Who they should have took: Russell Westbrook (4th pick)
Why: Westbrook is a standalone prospect that hasn’t been give the opportunity to stand alone. He and Durant are too much alike, outside of size, that they will succeed on talent, but there isn’t much room for co-existence in Oklahoma City. Still, he is the best overall point guard from this draft and combined with a more subtle talent like Dwayne Wade in Miami, he would be a MVP candidate today without Miami losing much of a step. However, the reality here too is that if you would have drafted and kept Westbrook, adding LeBron wouldn’t have worked out because of the same type of personality clashes. Still, a ‘big three’ of Russell, Dwayne and Chris Bosh would be pretty damn good.

Pick 3: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: OJ Mayo (traded to Grizzlies)
Who they should have took: Derrick Rose (1st pick and keep the pick)
Why: Ok, injuries do hurt Rose’s stock here, but he would still be a huge pick up for the Timberwolves and would have saved them from their forthcoming Ricky Rubio/Jonny Flynn/Wayne Ellington point guard pileup draft. I don’t believe that D.Rose would be longed to stay in Minnesota, so maybe you still take Rubio so he arrives from Europe as Rose leaves the first chance he gets in free agency, but picking Rose here allows you to play more with your future drafts than the crazy David Kahn and company had the luxury to do. And again, injuries aside, Rose is an amazing talent and the third of these top three guys who is likely bound for the Hall of Fame. He is truly one of the best score first point guards in the modern era, possibly ever, of the NBA.

Pick 4: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Russell Westbrook
Who they should have took: Brook Lopez (10th pick)
Why: Look, Lopez hasn't been healthy for the majority of his career it feels like. But when he is, he certainly can lay claim to being a top 5 center in the league. It sure would have left Oklahoma City without a critical piece at point guard, but would have made them so strong on the interior that they could have taken later money used for the Serge Ibakas and Kendrick Perkins' of the world and still brought in a quality point, who maybe could get along better with Durant? Lopez can rebound with anyone in this league is strong on defense, the pick would be a no brainer to me as his value certainly soared from the 10th pick after he actually played in the league.

Pick 5: Memphis Grizzlies
Who they took: Kevin Love (traded to Minnesota)
Who they should have took: Eric Gordon (7th pick and keep the pick)
Why: Gordon never has been the player he was in high school. It was a stretch, mostly due to his size, to believe that he could be. But he still proved a valuable scorer at Indiana and has become a reliable second option in the NBA. For Memphis, with Rudy Gay and Mike Conley in the fold, Gordon could have had more flexibility without so much reliability. As a true shooting guard, he could have flourished. A lineup today (had they kept the team intact) of Conley, Gordon, Gay, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph would be a tough squad to beat out West. Taking that pressure off Gordon in Memphis, which didn't happen in LA, would have done wonders for his career, which isn't too shabby at all anyway.

Pick 6: New York Knicks
Who they took: Danilio Gallinari
Who they should have took: OJ Mayo (3rd pick)
Why: Mayo is a headcase, hence his drop off here. Nobody can deny his talent, but the problem is that as he gets more disciplined in his career, his production drops off. This past season, as the least ball hogging he's been. he scored a career low. But Mayo is still a prolific scorer and athlete that the Knicks coveted at a time where they had none before the Carmelo acquisition.

Pick 7: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Eric Gordon
Who they should have took: DeAndre Jordan (35th pick)
Why: I don't know who could have expected the meteoric rise of DeAndre, but I think too a lot can be credited to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. If you look at his numbers, you wouldn't think Jordan would be a top 10 pick, but the reality is that he is an absolute game changer. Physicality, mentality, leadership, explosiveness, defensively, if I was building a team he would probably be the fourth guy from this draft I would actually take behind Love, Westbrook and Rose. He finally averaged in double digits in scoring this past year, but his rebounding numbers exploded from 7.2 rpg to a league high 13.6, all while leading the league in shooting percentage for a second straight year. The Clippers ended up with their man anyway, but in a redraft, he certainly wouldn't be there at #35.

Pick 8: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Joe Alexander
Who they should have took: Danilio Gallinari (6th pick)
Why: Because he isn't Joe Alexander? Gallinari was a highly touted prospect who really isn't looked at as a success. Why? I am not sure. He didn't perform well as a rookie in New York but steadily improved his numbers to the point that he was a key centerpiece on the New York side in a trade that brought the Knicks Carmelo Anthony. If it had not been for him and his consistency, the Knicks may have not had the assets to bring in Melo. Since then, he has been a leader in a generally decent Nuggets organization and just had his best year as a scorer and one of his best as a rebounder and passer. 

Pick 9: Charlotte Bobcats
Who they took: DJ Augustin
Who they should have took: Nicholas Batum (25th pick)
Why: Batum came into the league with a lot of hype from Europe. He has been a critical piece for the thriving Trail Blazers and the Bobcats were still searching for a personality. And DJ Augustin wasn't it. Batum would have come in and immediately been a young prime time scorer at a time when Charlotte was relying heavily on a seemingly ever changing rotation of veterans who were not reliable in the long term.

Pick 10: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Brook Lopez
Who they should have took: Goran Dragic (45th pick)
Why: His production in the last two years is why I would see Dragic soar to this spot. While Deron Williams has been great in New Jersey/Brooklyn, could you imagine a world where they didn't need him and could spend his money elsewhere (hello Carmelo?). Dragic's assist per game went down last year, but only to see his scoring clip surpass 20 ppg and his shooting percentage soar above .500.

Pick 11: Indiana Pacers
Who they took: Jerryd Bayless (traded to Blazers)
Who they should have took: Roy Hibbert (17th pick and keep the pick)
Why: The Pacers ended up with Hibbert anyway, but you actually need to make this choice earlier. Yes, he faltered a lot this past postseason, but he is still over 7-feet with a huge upside. His inconsistency keeps him out of the top 10, but his size and ability (if he ever fully uses it) make him a guy you absolutely have to take here and Indiana is way better off with him than had they gone in any other direction in 2008 with this pick.

Pick 12: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Jason Thompson
Who they should have took: Courtney Lee (22nd pick)
Why: Lee is a steady scorer to come off a bench. He's already been with five teams and will probably always be a journeyman add-on in trade. But he still fills his role no matter where he goes and that is really all you can ask most of the time from anyone picked outside the top 10.

Pick 13: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Brandon Rush (traded to Pacers)
Who they should have took: Michael Beasley (2nd pick and trade the pick)
Why: Beasley isn't a bad player, he's just a role player in the league and not the star that Miami wanted or that he was at Kansas State. But let's face facts, there is a huge difference between Kansas State and the NBA. But his biggest detriment are six off the court issues, including being kicked out of the rookie camp shortly after the draft. On the court, he could fill a void in Portland and give them more of an edge, both then and now.

Pick 14: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Anthony Randolph
Who they should have took: Serge Ibaka (24th pick)
Why: Ibaka has ended up being what Golden State thought they were getting originally in Randolph. He's a shot blocking machine, already leading the NBA in blocks on two separate occasions and his rebound and scoring numbers are often on the increase.

Pick 15: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Robin Lopez
Who they should have took: Mario Chalmers (34th pick)
Why: Chalmers probably didn't need the 'big three' yelling at him for years in Miami while being relegated to the bench in favor of Norris Cole. Phoenix has been without a real point guard since Steve Nash and today they could really use a nice point guard. Meanwhile, the lesser Lopez has been nothing but trade fodder.


Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Redrafting the 2003 NBA Draft

Let's face it, this was the greatest draft in the modern era on the NBA. It provided countless All-Stars and award winners already and will produce at least three Hall of Famers.

There isn't much you can say about this draft. It was a four man draft thought to be a five man draft. There was LeBron, Carmelo, Wade and Bosh....and then there was Darko. Poor, poor Darko.

Pick 1: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: LeBron James
Who they should have took: LeBron James
Why: This is a no brainer. For as much as I have never been a fan of LeBron, there is no denying his talents and how it has translated to the pro game. There a lot of reasons to hate on LeBron, some justified and others not. He is as polarizing as any player in professional sports today. However, his talent is on another level (and some, not me, believe that to be a level of its own). Any other pick here would have been ALMOST as bad as Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan.

Pick 2: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Darko Milicic
Who they should have took: Carmelo Anthony (3rd pick)
Why: You will read more about my feelings on Dwayne Wade shortly, but Carmelo is the pick here because of what he did different than anyone Detroit had. With Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton as a steady guard core, someone would have gotten lost in the shuffle had D-Wade gone with this pick. I think that is partially why Detroit gambled with “can’t miss” European prospect Darko. The pick itself was one of the biggest busts, as going with Darko made more sense to the franchise than risk losing Carmelo or someone else in their bountiful collection of wing players. However, Carmelo ended up being more dynamic than expected, so they missed out. Imagine adding a prolific scorer like Melo to the group that Detroit had at this point. I doubt they would have only won a single title.

Pick 3: Denver Nuggets
Who they took: Carmelo Anthony
Who they should have took: Dwayne Wade (5th pick)
Why: I will say, without reservation, that I believe a healthy and at the top of his game Dwayne Wade is the best player in the NBA. Period. To me, and likely not many other people I am aware of. And I am ok with that. Add that and his demeanor (and how it differs from Melo’s) and I think Dwayne Wade could have taken Denver to new heights. With Allen Iverson, with Kenyon Martin, with Chauncey Billups…I think that they could have put together a legacy in Denver, much the same as they have in Miami, but with less gap in between titles. Wade would likely still have been enough to draw Shaq, this time to Denver. And what if LeBron and Chris Bosh took their talents to the Rocky Mountains instead of South Beach. But even if nobody else came in blockbuster moves, Wade would still have blossomed and would still be every bit as likely to take the Nuggets to a crown or two.

Pick 4: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Chris Bosh
Who they should have took Chris Bosh:
Why: Bosh wasn’t the best player available and Toronto missed out huge by not taking Wade. But here, he is the best. He is not smooth in my opinion, but he does work hard and do good things. He’s a strong interior defender and has found range in his shot in recent years. Toronto took a gamble with a big man and it wasn’t a bad one, Bosh has just never been a stand alone talent, hence why his greatest success and best play has come as part of Miami’s trio. Even if you know he still leaves if you are Toronto, you still take the gamble for him to elevate your organization for a few years.

Pick 5: Miami Heat
Who they took: Dwayne Wade
Who they should have took: David West (18th pick)
Why: West has proven himself, especially in recent years, to be among the elite of today’s posts. He can score both inside and with a little range and he is an excellent, strong, defender. Is this the golden era of post players? No. But what West does is exceptional. It is hard to say what Miami would have done with him in the fold, as they still needed a go-to guard like Wade was, but he surely would have helped position the Heat to be a free agent destination, even if it wasn’t THE free agent destination.

Pick 6: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Chris Kaman
Who they should have took: Kendrick Perkins (27th pick)
Why: Perkins is tough because has always been what I would classify as helpful. With Boston’s NBA title, with runs in OKC the last few years. Perkins helps and that is something that until very recently, that the Clippers needed more than anything. If the people in LA could have figured out how to get the Boston versions’ work ethic and effort combined with the sleeker, more athletic build of the OKC version, Perkins would have been a huge steal right here at six.

Pick 7: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Kirk Hinrich
Who they should have took: Chris Kaman (6th pick)
Why: It’s hard to call Chris Kaman “not a success story.” After all, he didn’t come from a big time college program and he has been an All-Star. If anything, he would have been a bruiser in a Bulls area without any. No big man they drafted in the Bulls post player years was a physical guy at that point in their career. Tyson Chandler was still thin and while he didn’t fight inside, Kaman would have been a big help on the court and in practice toughening Chandler up a little earlier when it still would have helped Chicago.

Pick 8: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: TJ Ford
Who they should have took: Kyle Korver (51st pick)
Why: Korver has the unfortunate honor of being one of the first (let’s face it) Caucasian stars coming from a mid-major program. Where we now have Doug McDermott, there was once Kyle Korver. Did he have the athleticism to perform in the NBA? Was he more than a shooter? More than a one trick pony? Most people said no, hence why he almost went undrafted. The reality is that yes, Korver can do a lot for teams. He’ll still shoot the lights out but he has endeared himself to fans, to other players and has learned to better create off the dribble. And now, his career serves as a blueprint for those McDermott type of players looking to adapt to a higher level.

Pick 9: New York Knicks
Who they took: Michael Sweetney
Who they should have took: Jose Calderon (undrafted)
Why: Not much was known about Calderon at this point coming from overseas. He has made a silent, but solid career mostly in Toronto, where he averaged 12.8 points and 8.9 assists per game in 2008-2009, while also leading the league and setting a NBA record shooting .981 from the free throw line. Setting league records isn’t bad for a guy who didn’t even get picked up. For comparison, actual pick Michael Sweetney shot a career high .749 from the line his second season but was only a career .689 guy. Oh yeah, he was out of the league two full seasons before Calderon set that record.

Pick 10: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Jarvis Hayes
Who they should have took: Kirk Hinrich (7th pick)
Why: Hinrich got that nod at #7 originally because he was significantly taller than the other option (TJ Ford). Hinrich’s understanding of fundamentals would have been perfect in Washington where they were already trying to clean up the mess of the Kwame Brown debacle. While Hinrich never has developed into a “prolific” player on either side of the ball, he has great court vision and is one of the few above average natural passers in the league still today.

Pick 11: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Michael Pietrus
Who they should have took: Nick Collison (12th pick)
Why: No knock on Pietrus (even though you won’t see him mentioned again in this blog), but Collison was a rare NBA-ready back to the basket post. A prototypical power forward guy, he was never going to give you flare, but sure could work and was highly coordinated for a college center. That alone made him worth a pick. But his ability to work well on either end of the post was superb in 2003 and while he still has never given much flare, he has stayed a steady contributor in most aspects of the game. Bonus: he’s loyal. He has only played for two teams in his career and that only happened because the Sonics moved and took him to OKC with them.

Pick 12: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Nick Collison
Who they should have took: Boris Diaw (21st pick)
Why: Letting Diaw slip out of the lottery was a bad move by NBA teams. He was an athletic freak when he came out in 2003 after twice making the educated decision to withdraw his name in 2001 and 2002 because he didn’t feel his game was ready. Like several mentioned in previous blogs, he was a key piece in the Mike D’Antoni run and gun Suns teams, who had they stayed together, could have logged a Spurs like push because of late foreign pick ups like Diaw. And in all fairness, that is probably why he is having a mini-revival in San Antonio now, scoring the best he has since 2011.

Pick 13: Memphis Grizzlies
Who they took: Marcus Banks (traded to Celtics)
Who they should have took: Steve Blake (38th pick)
Why: And kept him. Blake was a question mark going into the league. He was clearly a strong shooter at Maryland, but his question marks following him are still ones that haunt smaller shooters, even at big schools: could he diversify his game on the next level. Blake did so in droves and took some of the pressure off for future guys and some succeed (JJ Redick) and some fail (Adam Morrison). Blake has turned out to be one of the most consistent second rounds on the new millennium, no matter where he traveled. While it’s unlikely he’d still be in Memphis, he would be a tough back up for Mike Conley.

Pick 14: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Luke Ridenour
Who they should have took: Leandro Barbosa (28th pick)
Why: Speaking of Suns key to their mid-2000s runs, here is where you have to take Barbosa, giving Seattle and redraft duo of those former Suns. Barbosa was so much the same players as Diaw out of the draft, but the way the two worked together was always fun and explosive. Taking Diaw, it was a no brainer to want to take his athletic equal and mirror. Barbosa also adds a little better three-point game and was a less talented template of what Kevin Durant would eventually bring to the table for the organization.

Pick 15: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Reece Gaines
Who they should have took: Dahntay Jones (20th pick)
Why: Jones is a guy who has quietly been helpful even though he was never really a good fit with the teams he was with, possibly outside of Denver. He’s done well to try to change that in Atlanta. His upside is his freaky athletic ability once out on the break. The downside: he’s so inconsistent (hence the often trades and releases). A highlight of that inconsistency: he shot 17% from three point range in 07-08 in Sacramento, only to head to Denver the following year and hit 65% of his long range shots.