What an interesting last couple of weeks to lead into the 2014 NBA Draft. Contract opt outs, prospects injured, prospects retiring, prospects signing with European teams. All of these things have added interesting components to a draft that is honestly just as wide open as last year's, when a seemingly unknown Anthony Bennett was the top overall pick.
Biggest difference? This year is more talented and talented deep.
But those changes have made the draft different. Joel Embiid's injury changed the top 3 and quite possibly the first overall pick. Dario Saric's new European contract changed the top 10. Isaiah Austin's retirement changed the first round. The contract opt outs of Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James will have effects on the league, and therefore the draft, that remain unknown. But what we do know is that they will have an impact on this draft.
So without further pause, after weeks of redrafts, here is the official In All Directions 2014 NBA Mock Draft:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jabari Parker - Duke
Why?: I think the exit of Embiid makes this one a no brainer. Parker fills far more of a need for Cleveland* (yes, that is an asterik) than Andrew Wiggins does. Should the Cavs keep this pick, Parker will slide nicely into the starting rotation. With Tristan Thompson in the middle and Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters at the guard sports, the implementation of Parker as a power forward allows Luol Deng to move down the the 3-spot and give Cleveland a dangerous starting five.
*And here is the asterik: Absolutely the best trade package I have seen rumored so far would be Cleveland sending this pick and Jarrett Jack to Utah for No. 5, Derrick Favors, Alec Burks and possibly the 23rd pick. If this trade is on the table, I absolutely see it being made. My choice for #1 overall stays, but I believe that this is Utah's pick or at least being made for Utah. Parker, a mormon, would be an amazing poster child with the Jazz where he and Trey Burke could be this era's answer to Stockton and Malone for the Jazz.
2. Milwaukee Bucks: Joel Embiid - Kansas
Why?: I do not think a team takes long to gamble. Wiggins is basically another OJ Mayo and Exum is not needed when you have Brandon Knight and Ramon Sessions at the point. In fact, while I have seen a lot of draft boards with Exum here, it would be a downright stupid choice unless they move one of the other two point guards, specifically Brandon Knight. They have talent inside, but it is still one of the areas with less talent overall, so they will take the gamble on Embiid and hope that he heals quickly and well. I think its a bad move for anyone to make this pick in the top 10 and potentially in the lottery. I, if I were a GM, wouldn't take him in the first round. Yes, he has talent. But we've seen this story end before (Greg Oden?) and I don't see it worth the pick. However, I think the Bucks will see it or at least try to.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: Andrew Wiggins - Kansas
Why?: Philly has coveted Wiggins all along and I absolutely think he falls to them here no matter who goes #2 overall (unless there are trades in the top 2). Philadelphia needs all of the help they can get and plenty of draft picks to make that happen. Taking Wiggins is the best option, even if they weren't in love with him. He can be a dynamic scorer and will play well off of Michael Carter-Williams.
4. Orlando Magic: Dante Exum - Australia
Why?: When Embiid went down, Orlando cried. All of them. But I still think they also get their guy here in Exum. Jameer Nelson's time has ended and Exum completes a solid starting lineup and will create insane mismatches because of his length. It also frees Victor Oladipo up to stay strong at a natural 2-guard spot.
5. Utah Jazz: Julius Randle - Kentucky*
Why?: Whether this pick is for Utah (or as I suspect for Cleveland) they both covet a small forward. Unfortunately there is a bit of a drop off between the top guys who can play that spot (Parker and Wiggins) and the next highest rated one (probably Doug McDermott). So instead, you have to take the next best option, which is Randle, who is also a guy who can play a little swing forward or play natural power forward to free up Luol Deng (Cleveland) or Marvin Williams (Utah) to play their natural small forward position.
6: Boston Celtics: Aaron Gordon - Arizona
Why?: I'd love for Boston to get Randle, but even if he is available, they seem to have a love affair with Gordon. They see him as a Kevin Garnett-like big man who can move and scorer off the dribble. They better hope they are right.
7. Los Angeles Lakers: Marcus Smart - Oklahoma State
Why?: The Lakers need to pull the trigger on rumored trade to sent Steve Nash to the 76ers for draft picks. It gets them options and prospects and frees up the point guard position where change is needed. Smart can feed the ball to Kobe when he's healthy and be a score-first guy when Kobe isn't.
8. Sacramento Kings: Noah Vonleh - Indiana
Why?: About the only hole in the Kings lineup is at power forward. If they get Vonleh and he pans out, they should be a playoff team out west with a bevvy of young talent. If they aren't, this pick will be the one that everyone comes back and looks at. After all, Vonleh couldn't help his college team even make the NCAA Tournament, so why wouldn't he be the one to blame?
9. Charlotte Hornets: Adreian Payne - Michigan State
Why?: Especially if Josh McRoberts blots, Charlotte should covet another big man more than anything in this draft and that could help Payne jump a lot because of Dario Saric's new contract which will keep him away from the NBA for at least two years, even if drafted. That loss to the draft could be Payne's gain with the new look Charlotte organization.
10. Philadelphia 76ers: Zach LaVine - UCLA
11. Denver Nuggets: Dario Saric - Croatia
Why?: This is the first team that probably can gamble on Saric. He fills a need when (and if) he comes, but they have a lot of talent still without him. They may not make the gamble, but honestly they are the first team to come up with a pick that could have that option.
12. Orlando Magic: Tyler Ennis - Syracuse
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: Rodney Hood - Duke
Why?: With the likelihood of Love's loss, you really need to fill his shoes as best possible with this pick, even if you get a good return for him. Hood can't fill Love's shoes, but he can put on his socks. He is a long swing forward who can rebound well and shoot the ball with good consistency.
14: Phoenix Suns: Doug McDermott - Creighton
15. Atlanta Hawks: Gary Harris - Michigan State
16. Chicago Bulls: Jusuf Nurkic - Bosnia
17. Boston Celtics: James Young - Kentucky
18. Phoenix Suns: Nik Stauskas - Michigan
19. Chicago Bulls: Glenn Robinson III - Michigan
20. Toronto Raptors: Shabazz Napier - UCONN
21. Oklahoma City Thunder: TJ Warren - North Carolina State
22. Memphis Grizzlies: Kyle Anderson - UCLA
23. Utah Jazz: Bogdan Bogdanovic - Serbia
24. Charlotte Hornets: Elfrid Payton - UL-Lafayette
25. Houston Rockets: KJ McDaniels - Clemson
26. Miami Heat: PJ Hairston - Texas Legends (D-League)
27. Phoenix Suns: Jordan Adams - UCLA
28. Los Angeles Clippers: Jerami Grant - Syracuse
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Cleanthony Early - Witchita State
30. San Antonio Spurs: Mitch McGary - Michigan
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
Redrafting the 2013 NBA Draft
Pick 1: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Anthony Bennett
Who they should have took: Michael Carter-Williams (11th pick)
Pick 2: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Victor Oladipo
Who they should have took: Victor Oladipo
Pick 3: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Otto Porter
Who they should have took: Tim Hardaway Jr. (24th pick)
Pick 4: Charlotte Bobcats
Who they took: Cody Zeller
Who they should have took: Trey Burke (9th pick)
Pick 5: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Alex Len
Who they should have took: Mason Plumlee (22nd pick)
Pick 6: New Orleans Pelicans
Who they took: Nerlens Noel (traded to 76ers)
Who they should have took: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th pick and keep the pick)
Pick 7: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Ben McLemore
Who they should have took: Ben McLemore
Pick 8: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Kentavius Caldwell-Pope
Who they should have took: Cody Zeller (4th pick)
Pick 9: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Trey Burke (traded to Jazz)
Who they should have took: Kelly Olynyk (13th pick and keep the pick)
Pick 10: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: CJ McCollum
Who they should have took: Steven Adams (12th pick)
Pick 11: Philadelphia 76ers
Who they took: Michael Carter-Williams
Who they should have took: Nerlens Noel (6th pick)
Pick 12: Oklahoma City Thunder
Who they took: Steven Adams
Who they should have took: CJ McCollum (10th pick)
Pick 13: Dallas Mavericks
Who they took: Kelly Olynyk (traded to Celtics)
Who they should have took: Ryan Kelly (48th pick and trade the pick)
Pick 14: Utah Jazz
Who they took: Shabazz Muhammed (traded to T-Wolves)
Who they should have took: Gorgui Dieng (21st pick and trade the pick)
Pick 15: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Who they should have took: Dennis Schroder (17th pick)
Redrafting the 2012 NBA Draft
The final two redraft blogs will be quick picks. Because I'm running out time? Kind of. But more than anything because we all know these guys well and these last two especially are based more on opinion than numbers. It is hard to quantify a "WHY" field for each of these picks. So enjoy as we redraft the Kentucky exile of 2012, a draft loaded with guys who already look like they could be superstars of tomorrow.
Pick 1: New Orleans Hornets
Pick 1: New Orleans Hornets
Who they took: Anthony Davis
Who they should have took: Damian Lillard (4th pick)
Pick 2: Charlotte Bobcats
Who they took: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Who they should have took: Anthony Davis (1st pick)
Pick 3: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Bradley Beal
Who they should have took: Bradley Beal
Pick 4: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Dion Waiters
Who they should have took: Harrison Barnes (7th pick)
Pick 5: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Thomas Robinson
Who they should have took: Dion Waiters (4th pick)
Pick 6: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Damian Lillard
Who they should have took: Andre Drummond (9th pick)
Pick 7: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Harrison Barnes
Who they should have took: Jared Sullinger (21st pick)
Pick 8: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Terrance Ross
Who they should have took: John Henson (14th pick)
Pick 9: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Andre Drummond
Who they should have took: Kendall Marshall (13th pick)
Pick 10: New Orleans Hornets
Who they took: Austin Rivers
Who they should have took: Terrance Ross (8th pick)
Pick 11: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Meyers Leonard
Who they should have took: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2nd pick)
Pick 12: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Jeremy Lamb
Who they should have took: Miles Plumlee (26th pick)
Pick 13: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Kendall Marshall
Who they should have took: Jeremy Lamb (12th pick)
Pick 14: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: John Henson
Who they should have took: Tyler Zeller (17th pick)
Pick 15: Philadelphia 76ers
Who they took: Mo Harkless
Who they should have took: Mo Harkless
Redrafting the 2011 NBA Draft
The Cavaliers had the chance to make out like bandits, and although they didn't end up maximizing having the first and fourth picks, they still did alright with a blockbuster first pick and a reliable role player at four. They snuck into the top pick in a trade for Baron Davis. Needless to say, they won that trade.
Their top pick, Kyrie Irving, was a whole other tale when it came to the one-and-done trend. He, due to injury, barely played any games while attending Duke University. It was a dice role, however calculated for the now LeBron-less Cavs.
A lot of these picks are based far more on expectation and what we know about their NBA talent so far than on stats, where as previous drafts I looked at more objectively when it comes to stats. While they do play some role here, it is just as important to take into consideration what they could and can do based on what we know so far about their professional career.
Pick 1: Cleveland Cavaliers
Their top pick, Kyrie Irving, was a whole other tale when it came to the one-and-done trend. He, due to injury, barely played any games while attending Duke University. It was a dice role, however calculated for the now LeBron-less Cavs.
A lot of these picks are based far more on expectation and what we know about their NBA talent so far than on stats, where as previous drafts I looked at more objectively when it comes to stats. While they do play some role here, it is just as important to take into consideration what they could and can do based on what we know so far about their professional career.
Pick 1: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Kyrie Irving
Who they should have took: Kyrie Irving
Why: Irving today stands as still the most clearly explosive player in this draft and has proven any doubters wrong since he was all but straight out of high school due to injuries at Duke. He's been an All-Star already and as Cleveland continues to add prospects around him, including the top pick in this year's draft, he may be the guy to lead Cleveland back to title contention in the coming years and he is more than capable of handling that weight on his back if he says healthy.
Pick 2: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Derrick Williams
Who they should have took: Kawhi Leonard (15th pick)
Why: A NBA title and Finals MVP to cap off the 2014 season more than justifies Leonard's jump here. He can get to the basket, score in traffic, shoot the ball well and rebound with ferocity. I bet Indiana is really wishing they hadn't given him up in 2011 essentially for George Hill.
Pick 3: Utah Jazz
Who they took: Enes Kanter
Who they should have took: Kemba Walker (9th pick)
Why: Questions surrounded Walker a lot in 2011 like they surround fellow ex-UCONNer Shabazz Napier in this year's draft. Is he a NBA player? Walker has more than answered that by becoming the go-to guy on a Bobcats team that went to the playoffs (yes, the Bobcats actually made they playoffs). He will continue to be the face of the organization as they flip back to the Hornets, a face that Utah sure wishes they had these days as they hang out in limbo.
Pick 4: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Tristan Thompson
Who they should have took: Isaiah Thomas (60th pick)
Why: 59 picks before Thomas went. Was he undersized? Not in what we've seen. And I know what you are thinking, I recently blasted the Timberwolves for taking two point guards in the first five picks of a draft, but this is a little different. Why? Partially because Kyrie can have questionable health and Thomas is coming off a 20.3 ppg, 6.3 apg season that probably landed him the honor of the best last pick in draft history. The other reason, if Kyrie stays healthy, then Thomas is one hell of a trade piece.
Pick 5: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Jonas Valanciunas
Who they should have took: Kenneth Faried (22nd pick)
Why: Faried is a beast who will be the catalyst in any run that Denver can make in coming years. While Jonas is developing in Toronto, one of the things they haven't been able to do is match up inside. Faried would have been a great pick here and is bordering on being a double-double player 12.1 ppg and 8.6 rpg for his career.
Pick 6: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Jan Vesely
Who they should have took: Klay Thompson (11th pick)
Why: Thompson has proven his worth by becoming virtually untouchable this off season. After an 18.4 ppg year, Thompson's potential involvement seems like it has all but vetoed a trade that would bring Kevin Love to Golden State. Yes, the Warriors may be passing on KEVIN LOVE because they don't want to lose Thompson. That is high praise. He would be an excellent piece next to John Wall and far better of an asset than the essentially useless Vesely.
Pick 7: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Bismack Biyombo (traded to Bobcats)
Why: Parsons is one of the best trade pieces possible for this summer. He is averaging 14.1 ppg for his career and has shown he is more than just a one dimensional shooter in the professional game.
Pick 8: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Brandon Knight
Who they should have took: Nikola Vucevic (16th pick)
Why: It seemed like a questionable pick at the time, but Vucevic has hit a high mark for his young career but becoming a double-double machine (14.2 ppg, 11 rpg) this last season and believe it or not, is probably the best piece to build around in Orlando.
Pick 9: Charlotte Bobcats
Who they took: Kemba Walker
Who they should have took: Brandon Knight (8th pick)
Why: Knight's drop is more of a testament to how well lower picks have performed so far. He can score in bunches and has shown that he can perform well when he has higher expectations. With not adding Kemba in the redraft, Knight would be a more than adequate replacement to help the Bobcats to Playoff land.
Pick 10: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Jimmer Fredette (traded to Kings)
Who they should have took: Jonas Valanciunas (5th pick and keep the pick)
Why: In the coming years, Jonas may be higher than this, but he has had a slower progression and didn't play in the league the year after his drafting. He is already a 10 and 7 guy, but has shown a progressive toughness inside, which is something that Milwaukee could use. Jonas would be a great piece right next to Larry Sanders.
Pick 11: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Klay Thompson
Who they should have took: Tristan Thompson (4th pick)
Why: Thompson wasn't quite the 4th pick, but he has been solid as a role player in Cleveland. His role could be even bigger in Golden State where his career 10.8 ppg and 8.6 rpg numbers would easily inflate with Steph Curry drawing defenders away from the posts.
Pick 12: Utah Jazz
Who they took: Alec Burks
Who they should have took: Jimmy Butler (30th pick)
Why: Butler could very well be the NBA's 6th Man next year in Chicago. He was a major diamond in the rough, often overlooked and has slowly improved his game. He is a great defender and would be one of the very best players on Utah's roster today.
Pick 13: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Markieff Morris
Who they should have took: Reggie Jackson (24th pick)
Why: Oklahoma City snagged a good pick late in Jackson, who would thrive from the move and score quick environment in Phoenix.
Pick 14: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Marcus Morris
Who they should have took: Norris Cole (28th pick)
Why: Cole is a good point guard, who could be great. He has benefited from playing with great players in Miami and his real value will be tested in the coming years IF the big three leave and he has to become a big scorer and not just big helper. Never the less, he is a strong point guard who can distribute as good as almost anyone.
Pick 15: Indiana Pacers
Who they took: Kawhi Leonard (traded to Spurs)
Who they should have took: Iman Shumpert (17th pick and trade the pick)
Why: Iman's production has dropped off since his surprising rookie year, but I am calling that more environmental than anything. In Indiana, he would be a good guy to take the ball out of Lance Stephenson's hands some (when needed) and would be a terrific role player. Unfortunately, in New York and based on his rookie year, his expectations were too high too quick.
Redrafting the 2010 NBA Draft
Bleeding blue. That is what the 2010 NBA Draft was all about. Five players from the University of Kentucky set a record by all being drafted in the first round, including top pick John Wall. What made it so important, other than that fact, is that four of the five all came out after just one year of college. If the one-and-done trend had hit two years earlier with Derrick Rose leading the way, it had officially arrived as THE THING during this draft. Never before had essentially an entire team departed together. It has happened a couple of times since, with UK doing it once again since 2010 and the school likely would have seen it happen again in 2014 had they not lost the National Title game.
Outside of that, there are a lot of great prospects who are in line for big paydays in the league soon, including little Indiana boy Gordon Hayward, the once darling of the NCAA Tournament, who should be one of the most sought after free agents this summer.
Pick 1: Washington Wizards
Outside of that, there are a lot of great prospects who are in line for big paydays in the league soon, including little Indiana boy Gordon Hayward, the once darling of the NCAA Tournament, who should be one of the most sought after free agents this summer.
Pick 1: Washington Wizards
Who they took: John Wall
Who they should have took: John Wall
Why: Wall was the perfect choice for a team without a star that was just going through the rotation of over hyped players. He has been the model for consistency while being a very mature player immediately in the NBA. 0.5 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.5 spg and 3 ppg are the only fluctuations in his career season highs and lows. He may not be the best point guard in the league, but for sure one I would want on my team.
Pick 2: Philadelphia 76ers
Who they took: Evan Turner
Who they should have took: Paul George (10th pick)
Why: I really wanted to put George at number one, but I guess I just am not sold on him yet. He has the potential to be a top 10 player in the NBA, but I don't know that he has the heart and enthusiasm to do so. Never the less, he is a super talented get to the basket scorer who can slash through practically any defense, if not all of them. Philly thought they were getting that in Turner (see pick #5). To see his scoring average go up 14 ppg in three years shows just what George is capable of on the offensive end.
Pick 3: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Derrick Favors
Who they should have took: Demarcus Cousins (5th pick)
Why: New Jersey needed their new Kenyon Martin, a raw and vicious post who would help them to the promised land by just being a wrecking ball. Favors was surprisingly soft and Cousins has just never cared about who he runs over. He has always been a huge presence inside and just had career best numbers in EVERY statistical category as a fourth year player last year. Imagine adding him to today's Brooklyn Nets lineup with Joe Johnson, Deron Williams, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and a healthy Brook Lopez.
Pick 4: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Wesley Johnson
Who they should have took: Gordon Hayward (9th pick)
Why: I didn't know if Hayward could make it as a pro. Yes, he was great in high school. Yes, he was great on a team like Butler (coming literally an inch of a roll in the other direction from a national title for the relatively small school). But, did he have the size or the versatility? Was he JJ Redick or was he Adam Morrison? Reality shows he was probably neither, but better than both. With such recent draft picks, we can afford to play the what if game (as you have seen and will continue to see), so what if you put Hayward with Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love? Think the Timberwolves would still be looking at another down slide?
Pick 5: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Demarcus Cousins
Who they should have took: Evan Turner (2nd pick)
Why: While Turner did well early in his career in Philly, he never was the player he was in college before his back injury. He still is a pretty strong offensive player, but has shown he can't succeed as a role player at this point, as seen by his production dropping significantly in his move to Indiana last season. At least with the Kings, he would have been able to be THE significant contributor.
Pick 6: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Ekpe Udoh
Who they should have took: Greg Monroe (7th pick)
Why: Monroe has quietly been an old-school beast of a center in Detroit. He is quiet, unassuming and still physical without being overly aggressive. Though he hasn't done it yet in a single season, he has all of the potential to be a career double-double guy and would be the missing link inside that Golden State needs and have been trying to add with potential trades for Kevin Love in this 2014 off season.
Pick 7: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Greg Monroe
Who they should have took: Lance Stephenson (40th pick)
Why: There is no bigger spark plug in this draft than Lance Stephenson and if you watched the 2014 NBA Finals, you can't possibly disagree with that. Unfortunately, he can also be a challenge in some degrees. But to me, the juice is worth the squeeze and you can't replicate Stephenson's desire and passion. If you have read past blogs of mine, you will know that I would restructure the current Pacers as more of a 1980's Detroit Bad Boys teams, so what better fit would there be for Lance than Detroit?
Pick 8: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Al-Farouq Aminu
Who they should have took: Eric Bledsoe (18th pick)
Why: I felt at the time like Bledsoe was the most raw of the five Kentucky players coming out, but didn't end up being so. I am sure the Clippers, who ended up with him via draft day trade, would have liked to get him anyway without giving anything up. While he never was the production guy in LA he has become, you take the chance that you can keep him in the long term and pick him over Aminu, who has never been much of anything and probably never will be.
Pick 9: Utah Jazz
Who they took: Gordon Hayward
Who they should have took: Derrick Favors (3rd pick)
Why: Favors will never live up to his hype because quite frankly, when the opponents were as big as him, he wilted. He is still a very strong and muscular force as a swing forward, but he will never be a dominant rebounder or post production guy. With that, he has learned to work great in a pick and roll position and has thrived moving like that in Utah anyway in recent years.
Pick 10: Indiana Pacers
Who they took: Paul George
Who they should have took: Avery Bradley (19th pick)
Why: Bradley is a solid score-first point who can rise to the occasion. As Boston's need for his production has risen, so has his game. He would be a valuable piece for the building Pacers and a true point guard, who even though he is a score-first guy, can and will pass the ball.
Pick 11: New Orleans Hornets
Who they took: Cole Aldrich (traded to Thunder)
Who they should have took: Jeremy Lin (undrafted and trade the pick)
Why: Then, there wasn't going to be a trade partner and today, there is still a smaller and shrinking aura of intrigue around Lin. Can he catch lightning in a bottle twice. Make the pick and use it as an asset when the time is right because Lin is an "OK" basketball player and has some trade value to help build up the now Pelicans.
Pick 12: Memphis Grizzlies
Who they took: Xavier Henry
Who they should have took: Larry Sanders (15th pick)
Why: Sanders won't knock your socks off, but one of Memphis' downfalls is the lack of a quality post behind Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Sanders could be that guy as he is more suited for that role than that of leading man, which they are trying to make him be in Milwaukee.
Pick 13: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Ed Davis
Who they should have took: Greivis Vasquez (28th pick)
Why: Consistency is a key for draft picks after 10 and after his rookie year, Vasquez has been that. Toronto has him now, but would have loved to have his consistency while they built the playoff team they have today.
Pick 14: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Patrick Patterson
Who they should have took: Landry Fields (39th pick)
Why: Fields is terrible. BUT, he wasn't early. Fields appeared to be THE STEAL of this draft and really was his first two years in the league. This is another draft and dump guy. If the Rockets could have taken Fields and dumped him off during the second year of his contract before he bounced in free agency (like he did to the Knicks), then they could have gotten another good piece for the Dwight Howard/James Harden duo. That is your end game with this pick, even if you don't know it yet.
Pick 15: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Larry Sanders
Who they should have took: Jordan Crawford (27th pick)
Why: Of course, you want the early career Jordan Crawford who looked like he was going to be one of those draft day steals. You don't however want the current day Jordan Crawford who plays like the 27th pick. Business boomed for him in Washington and he did OK in Boston before becoming a trade chip. He would have been more featured in Milwaukee and they could have gotten the most out of his early career peak.
Redrafting the 2009 NBA Draft
The draft where David Kahn went crazy. We can look at the super freak athlete that Blake Griffin is or the monumental flop pick of Hasheem Thabeet. We can be in awe of Stephen Curry's shooting or James Harden's beard. But for me, 2009 will always be about the draft where Minnesota Timberwolves president David Kahn actually drafted four point guards in the first round including two with back-to-back picks at #5 and #6.
The decisions that Kahn made (or didn't make) in 2009 still haunt Minnesota today and are part of a string of events that would be the catalyst for the clearly pending Kevin Love exit which will mirror Kevin Garnett's 2007 exit and lead to the once-again downfall of the organization.
As no matter how good this class was and is today, I will always look at 2009 as the year that the Minnesota Timberwolves' prospect laden rise started to decline...again.
Pick 1: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Blake Griffin
Who they should have took: Blake Griffin
Why: As smaller as the answers to this question get the more recent we get we these drafts, this is one I really feel like I should leave blank. It may be the biggest no brainer in the modern era of the NBA draft because I feel I have no reason to have to justify this. But in case I do, 18 points and 8.3 rebounds. Those are the lowest single season marks for Griffin in his short, yet successful NBA career. Lows.
Pick 2: Memphis Grizzlies
Who they took: Hasheem Thabeet
Who they should have took: James Harden (3rd pick)
Why: Harden is what we thought he was. Unfortunately, Oklahoma City had too may other (two to be exact) stars to notice. He is not a sixth man, he is a prolific scoring first option that you build an entire organization around. Would Memphis be able to see that, already loaded down with Rudy Gay and Mike Conley? Maybe not, but you still don't pass on a guy like Harden here who people follow like his game is the gospel.
Pick 3: Oklahoma City Thunder
Who they took: James Harden
Who they should have took: Stephen Curry (7th pick)
Why: People kind of cringed as Curry dropped down the draft board. But none of those people seemed to be executives with early picks. While Harden was built, in the eyes of OKC, as too much like Russell Westbrook to play alongside him all of the time, Curry was basically built for a role as a 2-guard in OKC. Imagine the defense worrying about how Kevin Durant will abuse them in the post, forcing them to halfway double him always, then collapse on a driving Westbrook, only for him to kick it out to WIDE open Steph Curry. Ouch.
Pick 4: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Tyreke Evans
Who they should have took: Ricky Rubio (5th pick)
Why: In the downfall they were in at that point that they could have afforded to wait a couple years for a player of Rubio's ability. He is absolutely a guy you could build around and would be great in a modern Sacramento where he, Demarcus Cousins and Ben McLemore could all work off of each other.
Pick 5: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Ricky Rubio
Who they should have took: DeMar DeRozan (9th pick)
Why: DeRozan can fly. In my opinion, if you can nail down a good point, a true wing and solid big man, you can fill in those last two spots around them. Knowing that you can still get a point guard with the next pick (so I guess these two are interchangeable), you need to take that wing as you already have Kevin Love inside. DeRozan is the most long term scoring option at this point and has a natural athletic ability (I say that a lot, don't I?). His scoring prowess has steadily rose to over 22 ppg and is currently a go-to guy for the surging Raptors. In Minnesota, he would have taken a lot of heat off Love and vice-versa.
Pick 6: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Jonny Flynn
Who they should have took: Ty Lawson (18th pick)
Why: They actually picked him anyway at 18 before trading him away (might have had something to do with the other two point guards they had already drafted that night). Lawson has become easily the second best point guard from this draft by being able to adapt from being a score first guard to a pass first guard on any given night depending on what is need of him. Proof in the pudding? Last season, he put up career best 17.6 ppg and 8.8 apg numbers.
Pick 7: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Stephen Curry
Who they should have took: Brandon Jennings (10th pick)
Why: The question on Jennings was how does one adapt from the high school game to the European game and back to the pro game. Even scarier, he averaged only 5.5 ppg in Europe and proved why the two games were so different. Good news? He's never averaged lower than 15.5 ppg in the NBA. He wouldn't have been the same player Curry was, but he would still have helped a Golden State revival. This is one of those ones where I don't trade him on draft night, but I still pick him with every intention of trading him down the line, be it a year or two away.
Pick 8: New York Knicks
Who they took: Jordan Hill
Who they should have took: Taj Gibson (26th pick)
Why: Gibson was one of those guys who you thought you wanted, but maybe thought was too raw, but he was so strong...probably close to every team in this draft had a love/hate relationship with the idea of drafting Taj Gibson. The Knicks really could have used him here, because he has been the defensive power that they wanted from Hill, who never lived up to anywhere close to his hype. Gibson will never been a big scoring or rebounding guy, but he does enough to be a game changer on defense and that is what New York desperately needed when they took Hill. That and a prime time scorer that they missed out on by ONE SPOT when Golden State took Steph Curry.
Pick 9: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: DeMar DeRozan
Who they should have took: Tyreke Evans (4th pick)
Why: Evans is a prolific ball handler and assuming the Raptors still built up the same way they have, they could have used someone with his court sense. His drop is attributed to the fact that he isn't a prime time scorer in the league as expected, but his quickness, court vision and ball handling are all still major assets.
Pick 10: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Brandon Jennings
Who they should have took: Jrue Holiday (17th pick)
Why: Holiday needed another year at UCLA to develop. Let's get that out of the way first. And while that is the case with a lot of these guys, it really is with Jrue. He proved over time in Philadelphia that he can be a number one or two scorer and can rebound when needed. Hopefully he can find his role in New Orleans, but should he have gone here, he would have immediately been the top dog in Milwaukee in pretty much the exact same way Jennings was.
Pick 11: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Terrence Williams
Who they should have took: Jeff Teague (19th pick)
Why: New Jersey wanted an interior defender here but you can't pass on Teague, who has quietly become one of the more intriguing wings in the last couple of years. He shoots the ball well (.447 for his career) has really developed a great get-to-the-basket game which has helped him become the primary guard scoring option in Atlanta and has him lined up for a big free agent contract soon.
Pick 12: Charlotte Bobcats
Who they took: Gerald Henderson
Who they should have took: Wesley Matthews (undrafted)
Why: In recent years, has there been a better UNDRAFTED prospect than Matthews? He was a very solid player for four years at Marquette, which made his draft status questionable. He made sure people understood why by averaging 9+ ppg as a rookie and has seen his scoring and rebounding improve almost every year since. Like with pretty much always, Charlotte was looking to stockpile guys who could be of any help and Matthews could have been much more so than Henderson.
Pick 13: Indiana Pacers
Who they took: Tyler Hansbrough
Who they should have took: Danny Green (46th pick)
Why: There are a lot of very naturally gifted, athletic scorers in this draft and that is the only reason I have Green as far down as 13. He's today's Robert Horry, minus a few pounds (though still about the size of Horry during the Houston Rockets' mid-90s title runs). He can contribute, is unassuming and a crafty clutch three point shooter, all of which Indiana could use right now and in the past several years while they were looking for those intangible pieces to help topple Miami.
Pick 14: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Earl Clark
Who they should have took: Darren Collison (21st pick)
Why: I don't have a great answer here. Collison is the best player today left on the hypothetical draft board at this point.
Pick 15: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Austin Daye
Who they should have took: Demare Carroll (27th pick)
Why: Carroll has always been a really strong guy, which fits into the Pistons style. Last year in Atlanta, he proved he could score often in the NBA, which is something the Pistons are lacking, despite a constant rotation of those "physical" players over the last several years.
Redrafting the 2008 NBA Draft
Welcome to the official rollout of the world of
one-and-dones. No longer will kids be coming straight from high school, but
instead going to campus for a school year, attending classes for four months
(or just long enough to stay eligible) and then going to make a pay day.
That was the story of this draft. No more high school run
wild and the foreign picks have tapered off. Four of the first five and five
of the first seven picks were college freshmen, making this the start of a new
trend that has taken over (note that three of the biggest prospects in the 2014
Draft are all freshmen).
It was also a nice look at how poorly the Miami Heat were
run for a long time. After missing out on the number one pick, which should
have statistically belonged to them after the most horrendous of seasons, the team
passed on at least two future Hall of Fame players to select Michael Beasley.
Geez.
This was also a tough one as I legitimately saw 18 guys for
these top 15 positions (sorry George Hill, JJ Hickson and Ryan Anderson.)
Also, it is the first class where my analysis doesn’t and
doesn’t have to run as deep because, well, we all know about these guys and
what they do. We see it every day during the NBA season and we don’t need to
look back so deeply.
Pick 1: Chicago
Bulls
Who they took: Derrick Rose
Who they should have took: Kevin Love (5th pick)
Why: Love is perhaps the most purely dominant player from
this draft class. His size and agility make him hard to guard no matter where
he is on the floor. In a class that is pretty damn good today, Love shines
because he is such a complete players. Teaming him with Joakim Noah and other
complimentary players would have made the Bulls the team to beat in the East
almost every year since this draft.
Pick 2: Miami
Heat
Who they took: Michael Beasley
Who they should have took: Russell Westbrook (4th
pick)
Why: Westbrook is a standalone prospect that hasn’t been
give the opportunity to stand alone. He and Durant are too much alike, outside
of size, that they will succeed on talent, but there isn’t much room for
co-existence in Oklahoma City .
Still, he is the best overall point guard from this draft and combined with a
more subtle talent like Dwayne Wade in Miami ,
he would be a MVP candidate today without Miami
losing much of a step. However, the reality here too is that if you would have
drafted and kept Westbrook, adding LeBron wouldn’t have worked out because of
the same type of personality clashes. Still, a ‘big three’ of Russell, Dwayne
and Chris Bosh would be pretty damn good.
Pick 3: Minnesota
Timberwolves
Who they took: OJ Mayo (traded to Grizzlies)
Who they should have took: Derrick Rose (1st pick
and keep the pick)
Why: Ok, injuries do hurt Rose’s stock here, but he would
still be a huge pick up for the Timberwolves and would have saved them from
their forthcoming Ricky Rubio/Jonny Flynn/Wayne Ellington point guard pileup
draft. I don’t believe that D.Rose would be longed to stay in Minnesota ,
so maybe you still take Rubio so he arrives from Europe
as Rose leaves the first chance he gets in free agency, but picking Rose here
allows you to play more with your future drafts than the crazy David Kahn and
company had the luxury to do. And again, injuries aside, Rose is an amazing
talent and the third of these top three guys who is likely bound for the Hall
of Fame. He is truly one of the best score first point guards in the modern
era, possibly ever, of the NBA.
Pick 4: Seattle
Supersonics
Who they took: Russell Westbrook
Who they should have took: Brook Lopez (10th
pick)
Why: Look, Lopez hasn't been healthy for the majority of his career it feels like. But when he is, he certainly can lay claim to being a top 5 center in the league. It sure would have left Oklahoma City without a critical piece at point guard, but would have made them so strong on the interior that they could have taken later money used for the Serge Ibakas and Kendrick Perkins' of the world and still brought in a quality point, who maybe could get along better with Durant? Lopez can rebound with anyone in this league is strong on defense, the pick would be a no brainer to me as his value certainly soared from the 10th pick after he actually played in the league.
Pick 5: Memphis
Grizzlies
Who they took: Kevin Love (traded to Minnesota )
Who they should have took: Eric Gordon (7th pick
and keep the pick)
Why: Gordon never has been the player he was in high school. It was a stretch, mostly due to his size, to believe that he could be. But he still proved a valuable scorer at Indiana and has become a reliable second option in the NBA. For Memphis, with Rudy Gay and Mike Conley in the fold, Gordon could have had more flexibility without so much reliability. As a true shooting guard, he could have flourished. A lineup today (had they kept the team intact) of Conley, Gordon, Gay, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph would be a tough squad to beat out West. Taking that pressure off Gordon in Memphis, which didn't happen in LA, would have done wonders for his career, which isn't too shabby at all anyway.
Pick 6: New York
Knicks
Who they took: Danilio Gallinari
Who they should have took: OJ Mayo (3rd pick)
Why: Mayo is a headcase, hence his drop off here. Nobody can deny his talent, but the problem is that as he gets more disciplined in his career, his production drops off. This past season, as the least ball hogging he's been. he scored a career low. But Mayo is still a prolific scorer and athlete that the Knicks coveted at a time where they had none before the Carmelo acquisition.
Pick 7: Los Angeles
Clippers
Who they took: Eric Gordon
Who they should have took: DeAndre Jordan
(35th pick)
Why: I don't know who could have expected the meteoric rise of DeAndre, but I think too a lot can be credited to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. If you look at his numbers, you wouldn't think Jordan would be a top 10 pick, but the reality is that he is an absolute game changer. Physicality, mentality, leadership, explosiveness, defensively, if I was building a team he would probably be the fourth guy from this draft I would actually take behind Love, Westbrook and Rose. He finally averaged in double digits in scoring this past year, but his rebounding numbers exploded from 7.2 rpg to a league high 13.6, all while leading the league in shooting percentage for a second straight year. The Clippers ended up with their man anyway, but in a redraft, he certainly wouldn't be there at #35.
Pick 8: Milwaukee
Bucks
Who they took: Joe Alexander
Who they should have took: Danilio Gallinari (6th
pick)
Why: Because he isn't Joe Alexander? Gallinari was a highly touted prospect who really isn't looked at as a success. Why? I am not sure. He didn't perform well as a rookie in New York but steadily improved his numbers to the point that he was a key centerpiece on the New York side in a trade that brought the Knicks Carmelo Anthony. If it had not been for him and his consistency, the Knicks may have not had the assets to bring in Melo. Since then, he has been a leader in a generally decent Nuggets organization and just had his best year as a scorer and one of his best as a rebounder and passer.
Pick 9: Charlotte
Bobcats
Who they took: DJ Augustin
Who they should have took: Nicholas Batum (25th
pick)
Why: Batum came into the league with a lot of hype from Europe. He has been a critical piece for the thriving Trail Blazers and the Bobcats were still searching for a personality. And DJ Augustin wasn't it. Batum would have come in and immediately been a young prime time scorer at a time when Charlotte was relying heavily on a seemingly ever changing rotation of veterans who were not reliable in the long term.
Pick 10: New Jersey
Nets
Who they took: Brook Lopez
Who they should have took: Goran Dragic (45th
pick)
Why: His production in the last two years is why I would see Dragic soar to this spot. While Deron Williams has been great in New Jersey/Brooklyn, could you imagine a world where they didn't need him and could spend his money elsewhere (hello Carmelo?). Dragic's assist per game went down last year, but only to see his scoring clip surpass 20 ppg and his shooting percentage soar above .500.
Pick 11: Indiana
Pacers
Who they took: Jerryd Bayless (traded to Blazers)
Who they should have took: Roy Hibbert (17th pick
and keep the pick)
Why: The Pacers ended up with Hibbert anyway, but you actually need to make this choice earlier. Yes, he faltered a lot this past postseason, but he is still over 7-feet with a huge upside. His inconsistency keeps him out of the top 10, but his size and ability (if he ever fully uses it) make him a guy you absolutely have to take here and Indiana is way better off with him than had they gone in any other direction in 2008 with this pick.
Pick 12: Sacramento
Kings
Who they took: Jason Thompson
Who they should have took: Courtney Lee (22nd
pick)
Why: Lee is a steady scorer to come off a bench. He's already been with five teams and will probably always be a journeyman add-on in trade. But he still fills his role no matter where he goes and that is really all you can ask most of the time from anyone picked outside the top 10.
Pick 13: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Brandon Rush (traded to Pacers)
Who they should have took: Michael Beasley (2nd
pick and trade the pick)
Why: Beasley isn't a bad player, he's just a role player in the league and not the star that Miami wanted or that he was at Kansas State. But let's face facts, there is a huge difference between Kansas State and the NBA. But his biggest detriment are six off the court issues, including being kicked out of the rookie camp shortly after the draft. On the court, he could fill a void in Portland and give them more of an edge, both then and now.
Pick 14: Golden State
Who they took: Anthony Randolph
Who they should have took: Serge Ibaka (24th
pick)
Why: Ibaka has ended up being what Golden State thought they were getting originally in Randolph. He's a shot blocking machine, already leading the NBA in blocks on two separate occasions and his rebound and scoring numbers are often on the increase.
Pick 15: Phoenix
Suns
Who they took: Robin Lopez
Who they should have took: Mario Chalmers (34th
pick)
Why: Chalmers probably didn't need the 'big three' yelling at him for years in Miami while being relegated to the bench in favor of Norris Cole. Phoenix has been without a real point guard since Steve Nash and today they could really use a nice point guard. Meanwhile, the lesser Lopez has been nothing but trade fodder.
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Redrafting the 2007 NBA Draft
One year after the draft lottery kicked them squarely in the
balls, the Trail Blazers got their retribution….and then pissed it away.
According to statistics, they should have picked seventh and instead the ping
pong balls placed them with the first pick. So they had a choice. And while the
draft has some solid first round prospects, the choice was simple. The massive
center that brought Ohio State Texas
forward that could wow with his shooting on the right night.
That Texas
forward, Kevin Durant, was the league MVP this past season.
That Ohio State
Long story short, the Trail Blazers still didn’t get their Jordan .
But they got themselves another Sam Bowie.
And oh yeah, the Celtics changed the game, probably forever.
On and around draft night, the Celtics made trades that would bring Ray Allen
and Kevin Garnett to Beantown to team with Paul Pierce. The original ‘Big
Three’ of this era culminated their first season with a NBA title, starting the
possibly dangerous trend of star players pooling together.
Pick 1: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Greg Oden
Who they should have took: Kevin Durant (2nd
pick)
Why: Because he is one of the most singularly dominant
players in the league today. Durant is a star and while a lot of #1 picks
shouldn’t be number one picks, you don’t normally see a huge superstar like
Durant not go first. I can’t compare this 100% to Michael Jordan going 3rd,
but it is the closest equivalent in my opinion. Pairing Durant with LaMarcus
Aldridge and then adding a point guard at some point shortly down the line and
the Trail Blazers would have multiple NBA Titles today.
Pick 2: Seattle
Supersonics
Who they took: Kevin Durant
Who they should have took: Joakim Noah (9th pick)
Why: Noah has become one of the very best stoppers around
the rim and that is something Seattle
needed when they took Durant. He wouldn’t be the same scoring presence, but who
would. He can score and his rebound and assist numbers were at an all-time high
this past season when he was named to the All-NBA First Team and was the
Defensive Player of the Year. Noah does everything on defense with a controlled
reckless abandon that works so perfectly for him.
Pick 3: Atlanta
Hawks
Who they took: Al Horford
Who they should have took: Mike Conley (4th pick)
Why: Conley is a score first point guard and while the Hawks
were in search of size in this offseason, they could have got it in other ways
to add a player of his caliber. His scoring rises every year and he has
developed into a reliable floor leader who is devoted in a city like Memphis
so there is no doubt he would have stayed in Atlanta
too as the Hawks developed around him. Also, with his winning ways and a true
point guard, perhaps the likes of Joe Johnson and Josh Smith would still be in
town. Not only has he gotten better during the season, Conley’s career playoff
scoring average is 2.7 points higher than his regular season scoring average,
showing his ability to step up in big moments. From the moment I first saw them
both live, I never understood why anyone would consider Greg Oden the better of
this tandem.
Pick 4: Memphis
Grizzlies
Who they took: Mike Conley
Who they should have took: Marc Gasol (48th pick)
Why: I guess the Grizz got their man anyway, but Gasol now
looks way more like an equal to his brother, Pau ,
than the lesser player. It would be fun to see what it would be like had the
Memphis-Lakers trade never happened and Marc stated in LA while Pau
was with the Grizzlies. But never the less, you take him here if you are Memphis .
He has done the club right, slimming down from Pau ’s
younger, wider brother and pairing with Zach Randolph to become a force and was
actually an immediate contributor as a rookie, quite rare for the 48th
pick.
Pick 5: Boston
Celtics
Who they took: Jeff Green (traded to Sonics)
Who they should have took: Al Horford (3rd pick
and trade the pick)
Why: Injuries have plagued Horford lately; playing in just
29 games this past season and 11 two seasons ago, hence his slight drop off.
None the less, he is a strong interior presence and has good awareness. He
would be perfect to run either side of a high-low, which is what he would have
done in Seattle with Kevin Durant
(in reality) or Joakim Noah (in the redraft). I say reality because if you are Boston ,
I don’t care who you pick at this spot, you still make the trade and get Ray
Allen because that trade directly helped you win a NBA title. If we go with the
redraft, repairing Horford and Noah (Florida Gator teammates) in Seattle
would have helped the Sonics and later Thunder dominate the inside game no
matter that they played.
Pick 6: Milwaukee
Bucks
Who they took: Yi Jianlian
Who they should have took: Jeff Green (5th pick)
Why: A different kind of injury, heart issues, briefly
slowed Green but don’t take away from his immediate impact and comeback (he
scored over 10 ppg as a rookie and is coming off his best offensive year in
2013-14). Green is a Kevin Garnett like player who works hard pretty much all
of the time. Milwaukee was headed
into a horrible season and league washout Jianlian was no help. The Bucks could
have used Green immediately, likely in a starting role, to help keep them out
of the gutter at least a little bit.
Pick 7: Minnesota
Timberwolves
Who they took: Corey Brewer
Who they should have took: Arron Afflalo (27th
pick)
Why: The trade of Kevin Garnett netted the T-Wolves a whole
lot of young prospects and a 22-win season of sadness. Corey Brewer didn’t help
much more as a rookie than Afflalo theoretically would have, but Afflalo would
have been more likely to want to be part of the rebuild than the moody Brewer.
Afflalo’s steady increase from 3.7 ppg as a rookie to 18.2 ppg this last season
in Orlando is a testament to having
patience and being in the right system. He was immediately a better fit in Denver
than Detroit and has shown signs of
growing every year since.
Pick 8: Charlotte
Bobcats
Who they took: Brandan Wright (traded to Warriors)
Who they should have took: Rodney Stuckey (15th
pick and keep the pick)
Why: Stuckey can score. He averaged over 20 ppg both years
in college and 32 ppg in the summer league before his rookie year. Then, he broke
his hand in the preseason and saw his shooting touch get healed over too.
Making the pick is a no brainer for the Bobcats, but keeping it all depends on
how much you believe that hand break never happens in Charlotte .
By not making the trade to Golden State Richardson .
He still averages over 13 ppg for his career and hasn’t missed too many games
since his rookie season.
Pick 9: Chicago
Bulls
Who they took: Joakim Noah
Who they should have took: Wilson Chandler (23rd
pick)
Why: Ok, so the Bulls lucked out big time. But, with no such
luck in a redraft, Wilson Chandler’s 7.3 ppg in minimal time as a rookie would
suffice. Chandler didn’t even
appear in half of the games his rookie year, but his work ethic and defensive
prowess still landed him in the starting lineup late in the season with the
Knicks. He would have played quicker (thus letting him develop quicker) in Chicago
where they were still relying way too much on the aging Ben Wallace inside.
Pick 10: Sacramento
Kings
Who they took: Spencer Hawes
Who they should have took: Ramon Sessions (56th
pick)
Why: The impact on and off the ball that Sessions has had in
the league is often overlooked. He was a late pick and by his second year in
the league he was averaging more points than his last year of college. Not to
mention, he came out as a rookie and averaged over 7 assists per game over just
17 games, where his assist total would rank fifth on the struggling Kings. He’s
moved around a lot, but is back in Milwaukee
now, averaging almost 16 ppg.
Pick 11: Atlanta
Hawks
Who they took: Acie Law
Who they should have took: Marco Belinelli (18th
pick)
Why: Because he can just shoot the basketball. He did so, in
personal record breaking fashion this past season from everywhere on the court,
while helping San Antonio to a NBA
title. Only three Hawks from 2007-08 shot better from deep than Marco, where he
would have been valuable off the bench on the guard weak team. His ability to
also get out on the break and pull up has been valuable too and had the Hawks
taken Mike Conley in the redraft, Marco would have been a fun pairing.
Pick 12: Philadelphia
76ers
Who they took: Thaddeus Young
Who they should have took: Aaron Brooks (26th
pick)
Why: Brooks is another pick that isn’t nice and shiny, but
still effective. By his third year in the league, when Philly was barely
winning 20 games, he was averaging 19.6 ppg in Houston .
Philly had holes to fill where they could have relied on Brooks and if you look
at his record, the more Brooks is relied on, the better he does.
Pick 13: New Orleans
Hornets
Who they took: Julian Wright
Who they should have took: Corey Brewer (7th
pick)
Why: Brewer can be a scorer. He can also be a jerk. New
Orleans could afford to take a chance on him and that
is why this is the best place for him. Because Minnesota
really didn’t have the option to cut their losses when his attitude took over
because they had nobody to replace anything he did with. New
Orleans was ripe with talent, could have used another
small forward and at the end of the day, didn’t need Brewer’s 5.8 ppg as a
rookie if he stayed a head case. He also did just score 51 points in a game
this past season, showing that he can put the ball in the basket decently.
Pick 14: Los Angeles
Clippers
Who they took: Al Thornton
Who they should have took: Tiaggo Splitter (28th
pick)
Why: Besides being Skip Bayless’ favorite player, Splitter
has a lot of raw talent that will likely finally be getting used more in San
Antonio as the careers of their “big three” wind down.
He didn’t come into the league until 2010 but would still have been a valuable
pick for the Clippers, even if he stayed overseas. He would have come in to a
Clippers team ripe with talent from Blake Griffin to Eric Bledsoe, from Baron
Davis to Eric Gordon, and helped make Los Angeles
the deepest team in the league. The guy can flat out shoot and score from
inside the three point line and is a career 59-percent shooter.
Pick 15: Detroit
Pistons
Who they took: Rodney Stuckey
Who they should have took: Josh McRoberts (37th
pick)
Why: Detroit had
a great season in 2007-08, but they sure could have used another body to take
some of the pressure off aging Rasheed Wallace, who handled the load inside. It
made Stuckey a questionable choice then. This for me came down to Glen Davis or
Josh McRoberts, but the two have had comparable contributions and I’m going to
be a homer by taking the Indiana born kid who played at Duke. It took him a
couple of years to get his wheels turning, but he was also in a place (Indiana )
that really didn’t need his contributions inside. In Detroit ,
he would have been able to play the physical style that has done him right in
recent years, especially in Charlotte .
There is a reason after all that he was once touted as a lottery pick, because
he had good court vision, could score well and would put you on your butt if he
wanted, even if it meant hitting the showers early.
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Redrafting the 2006 NBA Draft
I am pretty sure that then-NBA commissioner David Stern
traded his mother at some point during this draft. It really was like one big
game of “Let’s make a Deal.” 19 trades that happened anytime before this draft
ended up affecting this draft. On draft night alone, there were 14 trades (6 of
which were with lottery picks). Just look at how things may have been with no
redraft but with no trades. Lamarcus Aldridge a Bull? Rudy Gay a Rocket? Rajon
Rondo a Sun?
And at the forefront of those trades were the Portland Trail
Blazers. Going strictly by odds, they should have landed the top choice in this
draft. They didn’t and instead scrambled to make the best deals they could. Had
the draft choices stayed their course, Portland
would have ended up with an overrated (again, often referred to as busy)
Italian named Andrea Bargnani. Instead, they had to make some other moves and
ended up with organizational foundation Lamarcus Aldridge and longtime team
leader Brandon Roy. Not too shabby for a team who felt like the world was
against them weeks earlier when the ping pong balls fell Toronto ’s
way for the first time in franchise history.
No Portland
didn’t get their Jordan
this time. But they also didn’t up with another Sam Bowie.
Pick 1: Toronto
Raptors
Who they took: Andrea Bargnani
Who they should have took: Rudy Gay (8th pick)
Why: Joining Andrew Bogut from a year earlier, Bargnani was
not so much a bust as he is often described, just not a sure fire player or a
top pick. That is why I would instead choose to take Rudy Gay if I was Toronto
today. And that isn’t to say there aren’t several other valid options for this
pick. But Gay brings acumen for getting to the basket and a shooting IQ that
combined is unrivaled in this draft class. Toronto
was looking for a killer to replace what they had lost with McGrady and Vince
Carter in recent years and Gay knew how to do that from the word go. The team
won the Atlantic Division following this draft, but not because of their pick.
Needless to say that Gay’s 10.8 ppg as a rookie (and career best 20.1 ppg as a
2nd year player) would have netted the Raptors more of a punch with
Chris Bosh than Andrea did.
Pick 2: Chicago
Bulls
Who they took: Lamarcus Aldridge (traded to Blazers)
Who they should have took: Lamarcus Aldridge (and kept the
pick)
Why: The Chicago Bulls post player carousel had made a full
rotation the team had ran out of options outside an aging Ben Wallace, a past
his prime PJ Brown and a never very good Andres Nocioni. They decided (via
trade) that Tyrus Thomas would be the answer. He wasn’t. Aldridge had a NBA
ready body and the Bulls let the Blazers steal him right out from under them.
His rookie year numbers of 9 ppg and 5 rpg are the lowest of his career and
he’s never averaged fewer than 17.8 or 7.5 again. He is one of the most
talented, athletic and high motor forwards in the game today and has been a
huge centerpiece for a Blazers team currently experiencing somewhat of a
revival. If the Bulls could have kept him long term like Portland
did, he’d currently be teamed up inside with Joakim Noah. Imagine that.
Pick 3: Charlotte
Bobcats
Who they took: Adam Morrison
Who they should have took: Rajon Rondo (21st
pick)
Why: Charlotte
had a lot of self destructive behavior in their early days. Adam Morrison was
the worst of it. Morrison was the 2000’s version of that highly hyped, white,
strong college athlete that just never stood a chance until the pros. Jimmer
Fredette is today’s version. Instead, they could have had a small kid from Kentucky
who has turned into one of the league’s most prolific playmakers. For any
knocks (size, temperament) anyone has on Rondo, he’s got a play to shut you up.
He’s twice led the league in assists and also led it in steals as a 4-time
All-Star and former All-NBA performer. Easily a top five point guard in the
league today, scoring Rondo to help build your franchise around would have been
a major coup for a Bobcats team that used Morrison’s ability as their 4th
best player (what does that say about their other players?!?) to a 33-49 record.
Pick 4: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Tyrus Thomas (traded to Bulls)
Who they should have took: Brandon Roy (6th pick
and kept the pick)
Why: In reality, they ended up getting Roy in a couple picks
via trade, but with no trade here to land Aldridge, you take the next best
playmaker (if not all around player). Before his degenerative knee situation
took full effect, Roy was the one
that looked like he could lead the Blazers back into contention. He immediately
went for broke, averaging 16.8 ppg as a rookie and peaked in his third year
with 22.6 ppg. He only had four good years in the league, but they were very
good and if you are Portland , you
still build on that foundation. Had his knees not gone so, so bad and he was
still in the league today performing at the level he was capable of, he easily
tops this list.
Pick 5: Atlanta
Hawks
Who they took: Shelden Williams
Who they should have took: Paul Millsap (47th
pick)
Why: 46 times, someone passed on future all-star Paul
Millsap. That was a hurter when he has that All-Star year just this last
season. What’s worse is that he was still a 2nd team rookie
performer right after they all passed. He has always been nimble on his feet
and it’s shocking that teams didn’t take a chance on him earlier. He played in
all 82 games three of his first four years in the league and has made steady
progress every year. Atlanta , still
desperate for one more piece inside, really could have used that growth
earlier, though they are happy they have Millsap now during his All-Star year
and those that are still to come.
Pick 6: Minnesota
Timberwolves
Who they took: Brandon Roy (traded to Blazers)
Who they should have took: Kyle Lowry (24th pick
and kept the pick)
Why: Lowry is probably not one you take for the initial
appeal but rather for what he blossoms into. And considering the Timberwolves
(still reeling from years without a pick due to the Joe Smith debacle) traded
away one of the best players in this draft, you have to keep the pick here and
hope Lowry pans out long term while still in Minnesota
where you can pair him with Kevin Garnett briefly and later with Kevin Love. His
numbers have grown every year and he has been an outstanding leader for Toronto .
So if Minnesota could wait (which
they may as well have by ending up with Randy Foye), then Lowry would have been
a gem.
Pick 7: Boston
Celtics
Who they took: Randy Foye (traded to Timberwolves)
Who they should have took: Randy Foye (and kept the pick)
Why: Knock Foye with one pick and take him in the next. Yup.
Boston should have taken Foye to
sweeten the Kevin Garnett deal the following year. He ends up a T-Wolve anyway
that way. It would have allowed Boston
to keep another young piece, preferably Ryan Gomes or Gerald Green while giving
up Foye.
Pick 8: Houston
Rockets
Who they took: Rudy Gay (traded to Memphis )
Who they should have took: J.J. Redick (11th pick
and traded to Memphis )
Why: It is not as good of a move as Rudy Gay and Houston
made a mistake by trading him specifically. But with Gay off the board, I think
you take Redick and actually still trade the pick to Memphis .
If you are Houston , you still get
Shane Battier, a player you covet and if you are Memphis ,
you another piece to be a true shooter until he develops. He fills Battier’s
shoes adequately and opens up Mike Miller to be a scoring point.
Pick 9: Golden State
Who they took: Patrick O’Bryant
Who they should have took: Andrea Bargnani (1st
pick)
Why: I reiterate Bargnani is not a bust. He never scored
less than 10 ppg in a season; he just simply didn’t become Dirk 2.0 as the
Raptors wanted. He is still a solid pick at 9, more so than most people are with
the ninth pick and clearly better than O’Bryant, who washed out quicker than
you can say his name. His shooting hasn’t been exceptional, but he scored 21.4
ppg midway through his current career stretch and would have filled some of the
scoring needed in Golden State
Pick 10: Seattle
Supersonics
Who they took: Mouhamed Sene
Who they should have took: Ronnie Brewer (14th
pick)
Why: Brewer has bounced around a lot after spending his
first 4 years in Utah mostly
because of his significant tumble in production. This is a pick Seattle
makes for immediate relief in the time leading to and of early Kevin Durant.
Brewer helped the Jazz to three straight playoff appearances in his first three
years, the hallmark of which being his 2nd and 3rd years
where he averaged 12 and 13.7 ppg while starting all 156 games of the regular
season and 17 playoff games that he played in. After he left Utah ,
not so much and I don’t expect him to be in the league next year after
averaging 0.9, 0.3 and 0.0 ppg in the last three years over 38 total games. But
if Seattle could get 4 years out of
him like Utah did, it is a good
deal.
Pick 11: Orlando
Magic
Who they took: J.J. Redick
Who they should have took: Shannon Brown (25th
pick)
Why: Orlando
brings Brown in to be a clutch shooter, plain and simple. It’s the same role they
initially brought Redick in for, so this is not a bad move, though not exactly
lateral either. Brown does almost everything in an “OK” way and that is alright
for what service he would have provided in Orlando
and ultimately did provide with the Lakers.
Pick 12: New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Who they took: Hilton Armstrong
Who they should have took: JJ Barea (undrafted)
Why: Did you even know that JJ Barea was on the Mavericks
roster before their championship run in 2010-2011? No. He slid under the radar
and was a valuable commodity without anyone really knowing it. He averaged 7.8
ppg for two years in Dallas ,
missing just 7 total games before people started paying attention. He would
have been a motor guy to backup Chris Paul with the Hornets and one that could
have helped where the Hornets lacked (depth).
Pick 13: Philadelphia
76ers
Who they took: Thabo Sefolosha (traded to Bulls)
Who they should have took: Thabo Sefolosha (and kept the
pick)
Why: Sefolosha is a minute man. Give me 20-25 minutes a
night, shoot the ball at a pretty respectable clip and get hustle points (loose
balls, pass deflections, etc.). And Philly needed someone like him in the worst
way. Iguodala had no interest in hustling, Kyle Korver could only do so much,
Allen Iverson fell asleep while he was still there. Thabo would get you Kevin
Ollie numbers, but would still put in more work and effort than anyone on this
club.
Pick 14: Utah
Jazz
Who they took: Ronnie Brewer
Who they should have took: Jordan Farmar (26th
pick)
Why: A suitable backup for Derek Fisher, which is what
Brewer was. Farmar was never the player that he was at UCLA, but he still shot
the ball well and gave Kobe and
Smush Parker some breaks with the Lakers. He could have done so with a bigger
chance to make an impact in Utah .
Pick 15: New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Who they took: Cedric Simmons
Who they should have took: Leon Powe (49th pick)
Why: Powe was an enforcer every year he was in the league.
His career wasn’t long but he was one of the critical elements on a deep
Celtics team in just his second year that won the NBA title. And again, the
Hornets needed depth, depth and more depth.
Redrafting the 2005 NBA Draft
A guard heavy year overall, 2005 wasn’t a bad draft at all.
While you see a significant drop off from the draft’s two best players (guards
Chris Paul and Deron Williams) to the rest of the field, nobody was really too
horrible in terms on lottery picks. There were guys that didn’t pan out, but
the draft as a whole had a lot of guys even going late first round and in the
second round who were sustainable and helpful. An easy argument could be made
for who should be on this list between pick 10 and picks into the low 20’s as
there is a lot of talent (i.e. Brandon Bass, Jason Maxiell, Ryan Gomes) who I
did not make part of the top 15 of a redraft.
To show the depth, there were 24 undrafted players from
2005’s eligibility list that have gone on to play in the NBA at some point,
including recognizable (to NBA fans) names like Will Bynum or Chuck Hayes.
Yet at the top stood two and that helps this draft’s stock
in the history of drafts. Because both of those top players are likely headed
some day to the Hall of Fame.
Pick 1: Milwaukee
Bucks
Who they took: Andrew Bogut
Who they should have took: Chris Paul (4th pick)
Why: This is a no brainer. CP3 is in a class of his own from
this draft. Court vision, scoring aptitude, the way he runs the floor. In all
of those areas, Paul looks more like NBA2K than reality. He’s a smooth scoring
point who should be considered a top 10 player in today’s league. Thanks to time
with the NBA-owned Hornets and the recent Clippers ownership debacles, he has
been on his fair share of controversial rides, but has always come out cleaner
on the other end. With a lot of time left on his career, he is a lifetime 18.6
ppg and 9.9 apg guy who has led the league in assists on three separate occasions.
Pick 2: Atlanta
Hawks
Who they took: Marvin Williams
Who they should have took: Deron Williams (3rd
pick)
Why: Maybe not directly behind (but close to) Chris Paul in
ranking the league’s point guards, Deron took a steady growth to the top of his
game and then cashed in for a major payday. He developed in Utah
and became one of the top young points in the league before cashing out and
heading to New Jersey where he
didn’t let up, posting a career high in assists per game in his first year as a
Net. Atlanta made a critical
mistake by missing out on Williams (and then Chris Paul too). They took
Williams to help an inside game that didn’t need help. They had everything they
needed in the ATL except a point guard (because Tyronn Lue and Royal Ivey
weren’t getting it done, combining in the 2005-06 season for less points and
less assists than four of their teammates). Williams would have taken Atlanta
over the top and changed the trajectory of the organization immediately. And
that isn’t easy.
Pick 3: Utah
Jazz
Who they took: Deron Williams
Who they should have took: Raymond Felton (5th
pick)
Why: This may come as a shocking choice. And I will openly
admit that I initially was thinking Felton at #4, but when you look at the
needs in Utah , Andrew Bynum would
have made no sense. Utah needed a
solid swing guard and with Paul and Deron off the board, Felton would have had
to have been the pick. Felton doesn’t have the flash of the other two and never
has. But he has been consistent wherever he has gone, averaging below 10 ppg
for the first time just this last season. He was what kept Charlotte
afloat in his first five years in the league, maxing out at 14.4 ppg and 7.4
apg in his third year, while never missing more than four games in a season.
Although he missed some time when he left for New York ,
he posted career highs in minutes (38.4), points (17.1) and assists (9). In a
world where Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko were doing the heavy lifting,
Felton would have been a more than adequate accessory point guard.
Pick 4: New Orleans
Hornets
Who they took: Chris Paul
Who they should have took: Andrew Bynum (10th
pick)
Why: This is where you just bite the bullet. Although the
Hornets also needed a guard, you have to just go ahead and take Bynum here and
pray he stays healthy. Because a healthy Andrew Bynum (both physically and
mentally) could possibly have been the best big man in the modern NBA. He
struggled as a rookie, when he was the youngest person to ever play in a NBA
game, but struck the next year, playing in all 82 games (which is nice since
he’s played in 26 combined the last two years with three teams). In his final
season as a Laker, he finally showed what he could do when (mostly) healthy, by
averaging 8.7 ppg and 11.8 rpg while being an All-Star and an All-NBA 2nd
team selection. If you are New Orleans ,
you have to take this gamble and hope he doesn’t get hurt, because a
Bynum/David West combo would have been very powerful even without adequate
guard play.
Pick 5: Charlotte
Bobcats
Who they took: Raymond Felton
Who they should have took: Danny Granger (17th
pick)
Why: Granger has become another sad tale of injury lately,
but before he played 46 games in three years, he was a prolific scorer and
considered amongst NBA elite. Just four seasons in and passed on by 16 teams;
he posted back to back years of 24+ ppg. Charlotte
needed that hallmark of consistency and Granger was that and more when healthy.
With a scorer like him, maybe they wouldn’t have been held playoff less for so
long and avoided being the laughing stock of the league.
Pick 6: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Martell Webster
Who they should have took: David Lee (30th pick)
Why: Portland
was set in the guard position going into the 2005-06 season and Lee would have
been a perfect second punch inside with a young Zach Randolph. Especially at
this point in his career, David Lee was much more versatile and didn’t play as
flat footed as his aging body does today. It would have afforded the Blazers
cap space as well as they could have easily parted ways with Joel Przybilla to
use the cheaper Lee in the same role.
Pick 7: Toronto
Raptors
Who they took: Charlie Villanueva
Who they should have took: Monta Ellis (40th
pick)
Why: The only reason Ellis comes this low is because he is
known to have a terrible attitude and has been some form of a cancer in many
different places at many different times. His personality upside is limited,
but his basketball upside is terrific. Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady were no
longer options and the Raptors were flat out terrible. How they won as many
games as they did is one of life’s great mysteries. The only help they had was
a young Chris Bosh, who was still coming into his own and Villanueva scored
over 1000 points strictly because they needed him to on a team where the go to
guy was Mike James or Morris Peterson. And while Ellis did very little in his
first year, this would have been an excellent pick to say “it can’t get any
worse” and let him grow. In fact, he has averaged 10 or more points higher
every single season than he did his rookie year, peaking with 25.5 ppg in his
fifth year and even hitting 19 ppg last year, his 10th in the
league.
Pick 8: New York
Knicks
Who they took: Channing Frye
Who they should have took: Andrew Bogut (1st
pick)
Why: Bogut shouldn’t have been the top pick, but that
doesn’t mean he hasn’t had a valuable and productive NBA career, making an
All-NBA team as recently as 2010 and leading the league in blocks in 2011. He
has not had the scoring punch he did in college, but has been a strong
defensive presence, averaging a block or more a game in all but two seasons and
has never had a worse rebounding career than his first. With lifetime 11.6 ppg
and 9.3 rpg marks, he won’t set the world on fire, but he has been an integral
option in both Milwaukee and Golden
State
Pick 9: Golden State
Who they took: Ike Diogu
Who they should have took: Gerald Green (18th
pick)
Why: Green always has been the tail of about 14 different
players. His only consistency has been his inconsistency. Since his drafting 9
years ago, he has been part of 8 different NBA teams, three foreign teams and
three NBA Developmental League teams. But the fact is that when he is on, he
can be explosive and not just as one of the game’s best dunkers. His game and
mentality has adapted to the NBA level, something that the straight out of high
school version didn’t have. He was skinny and cocky and brash and he dropped in
the draft because of it. But years later, he has found a foot hold in Phoenix
where he set career high marks in every significant statistical category but
rebounds per game (and he was 0.1 off of that mark) and field goal percentage
(though .445 isn’t shabby). If you are the Warriors, you pass on flame out
Diogu and take the raw talent, hoping to make him mature earlier.
Pick 10: Los Angeles
Lakers
Who they took: Andrew Bynum
Who they should have took: Marcin Gortat (57th
pick)
Why: Before the Lakers latched onto Pau Gasol, they were
searching for any kind of big man. Kwame Brown, Chris Mihm, Ronny Turiaf. They
thought (and kind of did) hit a jackpot (planned big, reality small) with
Bynum. But with him gone, you go to the next strongest long term post. Gortat
would be a steal today even though he didn’t play in the NBA for two full
seasons after being drafted, instead staying with his German team. Though he
doesn’t have the upside of Bynum, he also doesn’t have the downside of Bynum.
By his second season in the league, he found his footing as a role player in Orlando .
By the time the Lakers were running out of steam and the Heat was becoming the perennial
favorites, Gortat was averaging over 15 ppg and 10 rpg in Phoenix .
Imagine those numbers backing up what an older Gasol was lacking instead of
relying on an emotionally unstable Bynum.
Pick 11: Orlando
Magic
Who they took: Fran Vazquez
Who they should have took: Jarrett Jack (22nd
pick)
Why: Orlando was
a great combination of young possible future stars and aging, but helpful
veterans like Grant Hill and Stacey Augmon. It’s still odd that they didn’t
break through at this point, but even more guard depth from Jack would have
been great, especially when their actual pick still hasn’t played a NBA game.
Jack could have backed up Deshawn Stevenson and bolstered the team by playing
alongside point guards Steve Francis, Jameer Nelson and Keyon Dooling. An additional
6.7 ppg doesn’t seem like much, but the athleticism Jack brings to the game
would have been a lot.
Pick 12: Los Angeles
Clippers
Who they took: Yaroslav Korolev
Who they should have took: Nate Robinson (21st
pick)
Why: Because why not? Sadly, I think Robinson’s place in NBA
history will be more of a circus act. And while his numbers fluctuate, this is
still a guy who averaged 17.2 ppg and 1.3 spg as a fourth year player in New
York . And he is 5-FOOT-9! He did well in half a
season in Denver last year and is
still averaging 11.4 ppg for his career. He is dynamic, but often wrongly
overlooked.
Pick 13: Charlotte
Bobcats
Who they took: Sean May
Who they should have took: Marvin Williams (2nd
pick)
Why: Williams is considered a pretty big bust, but mostly
because he went before Deron Williams and Chris Paul. He still is averaging a
career 10+ ppg and 5+ rpg, so he is not as much a bust as just not good enough
to be a #2 overall pick. Still Williams would have helped this Bobcats team
still (eternally?) looking to find their footing. If nothing else, he has been
consistent, playing in almost every game every season and averaging that
lifetime scoring number because he hovers almost right at 10 ppg per season.
Pick 14: Minnesota
Timberwolves
Who they took: Rashad McCants
Who they should have took: Ersan Ilyasova (36th
pick)
Why: Few probably though Ilyasova would ever stick in the
NBA. He’s not a knock your socks off kind of guy. But as is the trend most of
the time in these redrafts, you need a guy between 11-15 who will just work and
give you solid, consistent numbers. He has done that in Milwaukee ,
an organization seemingly always in a state of flux. He missed his initial year
in the league, but has spent his last three seasons putting up the best numbers
of his career while averaging a fair 27 minute per game off the bench.
Pick 15: New Jersey
Nets
Who they took: Antoine Wright
Who they should have took: Channing Frye (8th
pick)
Why: Frye is another guy who flies under the radar because
of not living up to initial expectations. He even put up 12.3 ppg as a rookie
in New York before falling off.
Then he landed in Phoenix and has been steady, averaging between 10.5 and 12.7
ppg, shooting near 43-percent from the field and as high as 89-percent from the
foul line.
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