Friday, May 30, 2014

Redrafting the 2001 NBA Draft

In no way shape or form was the 2001 NBA Draft as bad as the year before. It was a bright outlook inching the league closer to that benchmark 2003 draft. This draft with ripe with potential, but still in the era of high school to the pros and international appeal, there was a lot of underdeveloped as well as untapped potential.

But it was still close to 2000 and there was still little draft hangover (see Brown, Kwame and Griffin, Eddie). The highlight of this draft was what the Chicago Bulls tried to do. They traded franchise centerpiece Elton Brand for the second pick Tyson Chandler and drafted a second high schooler in Eddy Curry. It was a bold move that paid some dividends, but not enough for having the second and fourth picks, especially looking as some of the talent that was left in the wings.

The year was also another eye opener with high school kids. And not just because only one of the three from the lottery panned out, but because of a high school kid going 43rd, therefore having no guaranteed contract. That pick, Ousmane Cisse would ultimately never play in the NBA after forgoing his high school eligibility.

Pick 1: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Kwame Brown
Who they should have took: Pau Gasol (3rd pick)
Why: My only thought is that Washington knew Michael Jordan was planning on coming back and that is why they gambled. However, when you have the greatest ever playing past his prime and Rip Hamilton…and that’s it….you should probably plan better. The season after this draft produced the Wizards third best scorer as Chris Whitney. Yes, that Chris Whitney. Yes, the Chris Whitney that you have never even heard of before. And granted, I get the appeal of the big strong high school potential, but this is clearly where you take advantage of adding a guy who was just named the MVP of the Spanish National Cup. And that is even not knowing what we know now, which is that Gasol has become one of the more dominant and diverse big men of the modern era.

Pick 2: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Tyson Chandler (traded to Bulls)
Who they should have took: Tony Parker (28th pick)
Why: If you are the Clippers of 2001, you make this trade with Chicago no matter who you are giving in return. It was a wise move then, even if this pick had been Parker because of the (again, then) high level commodity that Elton Brand was. And the Bulls with Tony Parker? Intriguing. But what we know now if you are LA is that you take the Frenchman and you ride with him for years and years to come. Knowing Parker’s love of the Western Conference, his loyalty and his enjoyment of actresses, it is not a stretch to say that Parker would still be a Clipper today. Imagine adding him to the Griffin/Paul express? I doubt they would have fizzled out.

Pick 3: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: Pau Gasol (traded to Grizzlies)
Who they should have took: Joe Johnson (10th pick)
Why: You can’t blame Boston for shipping Joe out after a year, he was a dud. But if you are a pretty much always directionless Hawks club, you want to add one of your best players ever a little earlier. By the time Joe made his way to Atlanta in real life for his sixth season, he became a prolific scorer and only got better. This would have been a bad pick for Atlanta if Joe gave them the same 6.3 ppg/2.9 rpg effort he gave the Celtics, but if living in the ATL would have jump started him earlier in his career, this is the pick all the way.

Pick 4: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Eddy Curry
Who they should have took: Tyson Chandler (1st pick)
Why: Chandler was the right guy for the Bulls, just at the wrong spot. He was too lean and kind of meek for a kid from Compton to achieve early in the league. But he sprouted and became a force. He still is that force. Chicago was right in wanting him and going out and getting him. But, say they still make that trade for the 2nd pick, there were probably better instant impact guys to take to fill Brand’s role.

Pick 5: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Jason Richardson
Who they should have took: Zach Randolph (19th pick)
Why: Randolph’s knock was his weight coming out of Michigan State and in the age of the muscular big man (thanks Shaq), the doughy Randolph didn’t fit in, hence his drop in stock and draft pick. But what he went on to prove was that when used the right way, a little of that Charles Barkley ‘round mound of rebound,’ could work in today’s age. And while he hasn’t had the exact right people around him to make a big contender run, he’s done his part for years in Memphis and is the type of player that the Warriors keep failing in trying to develop (David Lee, Andrew Bogut, Erick Dampier, etc.)

Pick 6: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Shane Battier
Who they should have took: Jason Richardson (5th pick)
Why: Vancouver (weeks away from being Memphis) was lucky here that they weren’t trying to draft the face of their franchise because of their trade for the 3rd pick Pau Gasol. But in this redraft, Atlanta doesn’t trade Joe Johnson, so this has to be a guy to immediately delight in the new confines. Shane Battier is a lot of things (see the next pick), but Shane Battier is not THAT guy. Richardson was a delight in the Bay Area immediately, scoring 14.4 ppg in 80 games as a rookie and improved every year in Golden State save for his last, an injury shortened 2006-2007. The Grizzlies, with a lot of bad draft mojo (their best pick demanded an immediate trade) want a guy to lead the franchise into the future and Richardson could have slammed that future home.

Pick 7: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Eddie Griffin (traded to Rockets)
Who they should have took: Shane Battier (6th pick)
Why: Try to find a better “team” guy that Shane Battier. I dare you. Ignore the prolific shooting (I still say Miami has been lucky he’s been on the roster the last two NBA Finals) and look at how well Battier brings it all together. He is the glue for any organization, always has been. The day after this draft, the Nets traded troubled Stephon Marbury for Jason Kidd and Battier would have been a better mate than Richard Jefferson in my opinion. Battier’s shooting touch would have been essential on a Nets team that advanced to the NBA Finals the season following this draft and his outside game would have been a perfect compliment to Kidd’s slashing and Kenyon Martin’s inside presence.

Pick 8: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: DeSagana Diop
Who they should have took: Gilbert Arenas (30th pick)
Why: This is one of those areas where you just have to take a shot at Gilbert Arenas (no pun intended). Before he played shoot em up, or tried to, Arenas was a high motor guy who made three All-Star teams. He averaged over 10 ppg right out of the gate and built up to a fifth year averaging 29.3. Cleveland would have gotten a guy who was not peaking, but building his way to the peak at the same time LeBron James came in. And even if the balls hadn’t rolled the Cavs’ way in 2003 for Bron Bron, Arenas would have been a more than viable option to build the franchise around.

Pick 9: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Rodney White
Who they should have took: Gerald Wallace (25th pick)
Why: I’ve said this in previous blogs and I mean it. Detroit would have done well in building around guys who could have fit in with the Bad Boys of the 80’s and Wallace is one of those guys. Yes, they did win a NBA Title with the core they put together, but how many of those guys themselves would have fit in with Dumars and Mahorn? Wallace needed some fine tuning and used his years in Sacramento to grow the same way he should have used his remaining years of eligibility at Alabama. When he did reach his peak, he was a decent scorer that did the intangible things on the floor and got after the ball every possession.

Pick 10: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Joe Johnson
Who they should have took: Mehmet Okur (37th pick)
Why: Poor Boston. They sucked at the draft for so long. They finally took a good player in Johnson and he produced the worst year of his career. Okur could have been for them what they were looking for one year earlier with (shudder) Jerome Moiso. They had a who’s who of veteran garbage behind Paul Pierce and still managed to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals where they had to rely on a combo forward to handle the brunt of the rebounding. Okur, a career 7 rpg guy, would have helped in those finals to offset what Kenyon Martin was doing and given the Celtics another building block in the middle, something that was a constant struggle, even 8 years later when they won the NBA title.

Pick 11: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Kedrick Brown
Who they should have took: Richard Jefferson (13th pick)
Why: Kedrick Brown was supposed to be Kendrick Perkins before Kendrick Perkins was Kendrick Perkins. He was not. Picking up Jefferson here would have taken some of the load off Paul Pierce in the aforementioned Eastern Finals because Jefferson and Pierce were very similar in their play styles at this point. It also would have afforded Jefferson the proper time to grow behind Pierce instead of needing to be as prolific as he could be from the outset in New Jersey. Maybe he wouldn’t have washed out as quickly and become the mediocre veteran that he is, but shouldn’t be, today.

Pick 12: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Vladimir Radmanovic
Who they should have took: Jamaal Tinsley (27th pick)
Why: Ray Allen needed someone to pass him the ball correctly.

Pick 13: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Richard Jefferson (traded to Nets)
Who they should have took: Brendan Haywood (20th pick)
Why: This was a big man draft and the case would be the same here for the Rockets as it was for Cleveland when they draft him (and Orlando and Washington when they received him before he ever played a pro game): it was him or Zach Randolph. Randolph went one pick before him in the draft and the two had similar games. Ultimately Cleveland showed they wanted Randolph more and shipped Haywood out. But, in a post-Hakeem era beginning in Houston, Haywood would have been a solid pick up here, but not sensational. As Randolph separated himself, Haywood still played decent for many years in Washington as a key reserve.

Pick 14: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Troy Murphy
Who they should have took: Troy Murphy
Why: Murphy was a motor guy who would get on the floor. Golden State didn’t know their identity like they did during the RUN TMC era or today, and in trying to find it, they acquired blue collar guys. And Troy Murphy never let them down. He rebounded the ball well (five years in double digit average) for a guy who wasn’t a prototypical rebounder and bought himself a couple of extra stints in the league (in New Jersey, Boston, LA and Dallas) because of his stingy defense, which helped the Warriors (planned or otherwise), establish their mid-2000’s strong defensive philosophy.

Pick 15: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Steven Hunter
Who they should have took: Samuel Dalembert (26th pick)
Why: Lather, rinse, repeat. See 2000’s redraft #15. See the first sentence of 2001’s #13 pick. It was a big man draft. Dalembert had height, looked athletic and moved ok. Welcome to the selling point of players in this early-2000s time period.

Redrafting the 2000 NBA Draft

Orlando had three top-13 picks. Chicago had two top-7 picks. Yet neither emerged from the 2000 NBA Draft with a legit prospect to help turn them into a contender. But why?

Because the 2000 NBA Draft sucked, that’s why. Universally panned as the worst draft of the modern era (and if it isn’t considered as such, it should be), the draft produced ok, mediocre and cry-yourself-to-sleep why-did-I-pick-him results. Mark Madsen may be one of the most memorable people to come out of this draft. Yes, the guy who danced a lot as a Laker.

Six picks between seven and fifteen were traded before their rookie seasons, showing just how inconsequential this group was and how no team was really all that interested in anyone.

I come back to write this paragraph after I wrote the rest of this blog. And why? Because this was just plan sad and boring. It made me hate that I decided to do this series and I seriously can’t wait until I get the chance to write about the 2001 class just because they weren’t this pile of whatever this pile is.

Its all just…gross.

Pick 1: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Kenyon Martin
Who they should have took: Kenyon Martin
Why: Martin was instrumental early on and one of the only plays in this class to achieve any decent level of success. After averaging 12 ppg as a rookie, Martin would lead the Nets to the 2002 NBA Finals in his second season and then post career highs in scoring in seasons three and four, all while helping establish the Nets as an Eastern power. This was the right pick then and remains so now. Even after he left Jersey, Martin has been a helpful performer, posting a career high in field goal percentage during the 2012-2013 season.

Pick 2: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Stromile Swift
Who they should have took: Mike Miller (5th pick)
Why: Another guy in this series who ended up there anyway, Miller was a lights out shooter and still is when called upon. His best years were in Memphis, where he shot 50-percent from three-point range in 2003 and averaged 18.5 ppg in 2007. The Grizzlies could have used him earlier to ease their continued pain of bad picks.

Pick 3: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Darius Miles
Who they should have took: Jamal Crawford (8th pick)
Why: When he scores, he break records. 44 times Jamal Crawford has made four-point plays. It’s a record….because it’s 44 times! Crawford has been here, there and everywhere (including the Clippers) and is a 2-time sixth man award winner. Wherever he ends up, he helps and was a pretty prolific scorer during one of the sets of down years for the Knicks. He led the league in free throw shooting in 2012 in Portland and has averaged over 18 ppg five times, including this last season on a roster that boasts big time scorers Blake Griffin and Chris Paul. He has turned out significantly better than people thought he would and probably still doesn’t get the respect that he deserves.

Pick 4: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Marcus Fizer
Who they should have took: Hedo Turkoglu (16th pick)
Why: Because he wasn’t Marcus Fizer? No seriously, Hedo is a guy who can spread the floor and play pretty much any position other than point guard, especially in his younger days. With the Bulls pretty much needing everything right here, Hedo would have helped literally everywhere. He was a terrific role player early on in Sacramento (about the time the Bulls would have had him) and only got better as the contracts got bigger. And my guess is the Bulls would have tried harder to keep him on the payroll than the Kings did. And as good of an unlikely three-point shooter as he always has been, he posted his best numbers there (44%) just this last season.

Pick 5: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Mike Miller
Who they should have took: Deshawn Stevenson (23rd pick)
Why: Yup, he sure is a lifetime 7.2 ppg guy who didn’t even play in the league last year. But Stevenson has done so many intangible things in his career and has been reliable when a team shows him that he is relied on, playing in and starting all 82 games for three straight seasons from 2005-2008, all while averaging 11 or so points. He was a gifted natural athlete from the get go and true bruiser.

Pick 6: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: DerMarr Johnson
Who they should have took: Jamaal Magloire (19th pick)
Why: Magloire ended up being a bust that has been out of the league for 2 years but it seems much longer. But spent his first 5 years in the league (a big part of that rookie contract) as a possible long term All-Star, instead of a one-and-done All-Star (which is still way more than most this class can boast). He played, played often, played a lot of minutes and averaged 13.6 ppg and 10.3 rpg in his fourth season. Magloire would have been a band aid, not any long term care. But he was, at that time, a pretty damn good band aid.

Pick 7: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Chris Mihm (traded to Cavaliers)
Who they should have took: Michael Redd (43rd pick)
Why: For an Olympic Gold Medalist and NBA All-Star, Michael Redd’s name wasn’t on the tip of people’s tongues nearly as long as it should have been because of back-to-back torn ACLs. Before that ACL tear, he was one of the biggest steals in draft history with five seasons averaging 20+ ppg. Redd established himself, in the mid-2000s, as one of the best players in the NBA no only in scoring, but just working to get to the basket. On top of his ability to create, he was a great shooter, only shooting less than 40-percent from three-point range two seasons, including his rookie campaign. He could have been the fact of the Bulls in an era where they were so desperate for their “new Michael,” before Derrick Rose came in.

Pick 8: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Jamal Crawford (traded to Bulls)
Who they should have took: Quentin Richardson (18th pick)
Why: Expectation hurt Richardson early. That and his teaming with Darius Miles that forced that young guns expectation. But under that, Richardson was a charger and the Cavs essentially used this pick to take beat up and boring Chris Mihm. Cleveland was still limping to that light at the end of the tunnel that was a couple of years away and Richardson would have been a great person to have with some experience when LeBron came to town. His best season? LeBron’s rookie year where 17.2 ppg in Cleveland would have gone a long further than it did with the Clippers.

Pick 9: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Joel Przybilla (traded to Bucks)
Who they should have took: Keyon Dooling (10th pick)
Why: Because I am grasping at straws? No really, I am. The Rockets ended up with Jason Collier with this pick essentially and even though they didn’t know the best player in franchise history (Hakeem Olajuwon) was headed out the door, they really needed a scoring punch that they didn’t have. If it wasn’t for Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley, this team would have been awful. Worse than they were, which despite their 48-34 record in 2010-2011, was pretty bad. Dooling would have provided way more of a lift than Collier, who was the 13th best player on the team.

Pick 10: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Keyon Dooling (traded to Clippers)
Who they should have took: Joel Przybilla (9th pick)
Why: Pszybilla is functional. That function isn’t always solid, but it does exist. And that counts for something, right? Who am I kidding; he was a big body who wouldn’t have helped the Magic. Draft him, trade him while he has some stock in 2000 (before he went on to be a top 10 pick who averaged less than one point a game as a rookie)

Pick 11: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Jerome Moiso
Who they should have took: Eddie House (37th pick)
Why: Because he’s not Jerome Moiso. No seriously, I could put anyone’s name here and it would be valid. House went on to be a reliable third or fourth guy off the bench. That’s not usually worth an 11th pick, but in this draft it sure is. The Celtics loved him eventually when he was a big-time bench catalyst for their 2008 title team. He played for nine teams and even though he was only good enough to get mostly one-year contracts, there was a reason he kept getting picked up and that is because teams knew he wasn’t going to hurt you and he would work hard. Boston needed him in 2008 and really they could have used him much earlier.

Pick 12: Dallas Mavericks
Who they took: Etan Thomas
Who they should have took: Desmond Mason (17th pick)
Why: Mason was another solid out of the gate guy who didn’t pan out. After a rookie struggle, he did well in Seattle before being a pawn in the Ray Allen trade which helped him lift off in Milwaukee because while he was the second best name value heading from Seattle (behind Gary Payton), the Glove’s ability was dropping and someone needed to pick up the slack for losing Allen. He put up 17.2 ppg in 2004-05, earning a great contract with the Hornets, where his career started to flounder. Dallas was loaded for that time and he could have slide in nicely to help up backups Juwan Howard and Christian Laettner.

Pick 13: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Courtney Alexander (traded to Mavericks)
Who they should have took: Eduardo Najera (38th pick)
Why: As noted, Orlando was garbage and Najera was a work horse, though never the best scorer. He was a guy who was brought in for 15 minutes of mid range jump shots. But in this shallow pool, I’d take it.

Pick 14: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Mateen Cleaves
Who they should have took: Brian Cardinal (44th pick)
Why: This team had no short term prospects and they knew it. They were a year from putting together their best team and knowing that they were waiting for a good free agency boom, bringing in a misguided and overrated Mateen Cleaves was pointless. They needed a blue collar 20 minute guy who would throw around his weight and back up the emerging Ben Wallace better than the Jerome Williams/John Wallace dud farm.

Pick 15: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Jason Collier (traded to Rockets)
Who they should have took: Chris Mihm (7th pick)
Why: Because he was 7-feet tall and had some athletic ability. The end.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Redrafting the 1999 NBA Draft

1999 is almost a forgotten year when you talk about top draft classes, but this class really was loaded from top to bottom as the first and fifty-seventh picks each ended up being All-Stars and All-NBA performers during their careers. There were seven other All-Stars picked between them.

The letdowns there were, especially in the top 15 were both unfortunate and sad. Duke University saw four players go in the top 14 picks, but only two had extended NBA careers and only one (Elton Brand) had any high level of success. Trajan Langdon and William Avery both washed out in the league but had pretty great success overseas.

And the sad: Frederic Weis. Although Knicks fans still have a habit of booing their own draft picks when their names were called, this was perhaps the worst pick in the history of the draft, let alone in New York. Weis, best (and really only) known for being the victim of a Vince Carter leap-frog-your-opponent dunk in the Olympics, never played a single NBA minute. He became one of the highest picks ever, if not THE highest to never see the league.

Pick 1: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Elton Brand
Who they should have took: Manu Ginobili (57th pick)
Why: Had any single team had the slightest inkling about Manu, he would have been a locked in lottery pick. Had they known what we know now, he would have very clearly been the building block of Chicago’s post-Jordan reboot instead of Brand. He is quite possibly the best foreign player to ever play in the NBA and has shown his game and the level at which he plays has substantial longevity, especially when you consider that he had played professionally overseas for four years at this point. With a player like Manu to build around, Chicago could have made better roster decisions earlier.

Pick 2: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Steve Francis (traded to Rockets)
Who they should have took: Baron Davis (3rd pick)
Why: First of all, drafting Davis would have given Vancouver someone to build around, as opposed to giving up Steve Francis for a litany of garbage (Othella Harrington may have been their best piece of the Houston trade). Davis went on to be one of the most reliable, gritty and tough point guards in the modern age of the league. He averaged over 16 points and 7 assists during his career, three times averaging 20+ points per game. The trophy years for Davis were his 22.9 ppg, 2.4 spg, 4.3 rpg, 7.5 apg outing in 2003-2004. That same year, had he been in then-Memphis, he would have teamed with Shane Battier and Pau Gasol and possibly been a major threat out West.

Pick 3: Charlotte Hornets
Who they took: Baron Davis
Who they should have took: Elton Brand (1st pick)
Why: While not the best player in this draft now, anyone who sees Brand as near a bust doesn’t know much about the league. He never went on to be the most dominant post of the century as many believed he could, but he averaged 20+ six different years and could have been a foundation (as Davis became) for a soon to be relocating and rebuilding franchise. Elton Brand would have been a great face for the New Orleans Hornets. He is one of a handful of still active players from this draft and although his production has done down, his career point/rebound numbers still hover over 16 and 8. It’s a stretch to say he would have stayed in New Orleans through 2005, but had he, they would have benefited from back to back years of averaging over 20/10 and he instantly would have helped them in 1999, still stumbling over the Kobe debacle.

Pick 4: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Lamar Odom
Who they should have took: Shawn Marion (9th pick)
Why: The draft gets wide open for the next several picks as there may not have been a wrong choice in anybody I name from here through pick 10. But what Marion has provided in his career has been a winning attitude and nearly unparalleled effort. His numbers stay respectable, but Marion has been a guy who was clutch as a teammate. Could he have thrived as THE guy? Who knows. Maybe he wouldn’t have been that guy in LA anyway, but as a big puzzle piece, he was one of the guys who made Phoenix’s run and gun in the 2000s so efficient.

Pick 5: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Jonathan Bender (traded to Pacers)
Who they should have took: Richard (Rip) Hamilton (7th pick)
Why: Bender was a joke and so was his aged replacement Antonio Davis, so this is automatically and upgrade. Forget his 17.1 career points per game for a minute and remember that Richard Hamilton is one of the best face guarding players in the modern era of the NBA. There are very few guys I would rather have playing defense, especially off the ball. He made other guys work and work and work and work and then some. And I would much rather have Rip in the backcourt as a rookie than the aging Dell Curry or Muggsy Bouges.

Pick 6: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Wally Szczerbiak
Who they should have took: Steve Francis (2nd pick)
Why: Because the Stephon Marbury experiment was unsuccessful and Minnesota really needed a point guard. Something that made their pick of Szczerbiak odd anyway as Terrell Brandon (the player they got in the Marbury trade) was not a long term fix. Also, with hindsight as it is, we know that Minnesota was on the verge of losing first round draft picks for years to come. Francis may have been happier in Minnesota and it would have given the T-Wolves another chance to partner an explosive point man in a high-scoring combo with Kevin Garnett.

Pick 7: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Richard Hamilton
Who they should have took: Jason Terry (10th pick)
Why: Washington was hungry for a playmaker guard at this point and Terry looked more offensively ready than Rip at this point. And while his assist numbers have never quite added up as a point guard, he’s succeeded as a backup and an undersized shooting guard, hitting 38-percent for his career from long range. He’s also only had two seasons in single digit scoring (his first and 2013-2014) so he has shown consistency. Something that, for the most part, still lacks in Washington today. Also, with Terry on the roster, the Wizards may have never gotten involved with his college teammate Gilbert Arenas years later out of need, something that helped kill their franchise a little more.

Pick 8: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Andre Miller
Who they should have took: Lamar Odom (4th pick)
Why: For the sad joke that Odom has turned into, he was a stellar prospect and solid contributor for almost his entire career. Cleveland’s guard first approach to lottery life in the years before Lebron didn’t pan out, so taking a nice combo forward like Odom could have been a better avenue, even if it did leave them in the lottery or the smelly end of the playoffs.

Pick 9: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Shawn Marion
Who they should have took: Ron Artest (16th pick)
Why: It is hard to say what to do here. The Suns lost Jason Kidd during the following season with an injury, so maybe you want another point guard so the brunt of the work doesn’t go to Penny Hardaway. But I say go physical and bring in Artest. Before the real anger issues or name changes, Artest was just a brute force. He would have helped Phoenix initially in their eventual playoff loss to San Antonio and this pick could have changed the path of the franchise. Maybe Artest, teaming with Kidd or even if they still traded for Marbury, becomes what leads Phoenix and never brings Nash or Amare Stoudemire to town. Would it be better? Hard to say, but Artest’s intensity would have been good for a talented, yet pretty emotionless club in 1999.

Pick 10: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: Jason Terry
Who they should have took: Andre Miller (8th pick)
Why: You basically get the same thing in Miller as you got in Terry, with a little less scoring and little better court vision. In just his third season, Miller put up a 16.5 ppg/10.9 apg season that would have been useful in Atlanta where Terry was the leading scorer pretty quickly. Would this pick have changed anything? No, but it would be a lateral move for another emotionless franchise.

Pick 11: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Trajan Langdon
Who they should have took: Corey Magette (13th pick)
Why: Langdon was a prototypical Duke player. But there is a reason that old school look doesn’t breed much success for ex-Blue Devils and a reason that Magette lasted longer in the league. Magette and Odom would have been a fierce combo in Cleveland and led a youthful surge for a long ailing club. What Cleveland actually got from Langdon were two uneventful years where he never looked like the advertised “Alaskan Assassin.” Though he washed out and faded in obscurity recently, Magette was still a 16 ppg career scorer who at times looked like a dominant physical specimen capable of leading a franchise as their top guy.

Pick 12: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Aleksander Radojevic
Who they should have took: Andrei Kirilenko (24th pick)
Why: While Kirilenko has sadly never become the player he has the potential to be, he would have been an awesome player for Toronto to add to a roster that boasted Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady (and in the redraft version a better option than Antonio Davis with the earlier 5th pick). They were already a playoff team, so imagine this Raptors team dropping Davis’ 11.5 ppg and Radojevic’s three games played for Rip Hamilton and AK-47. Yes please.

Pick 13: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Corey Magette (traded to Orlando)
Who they should have took: Wally Szczerbiak (6th pick)
Why: Wally deserves to be graded with an incomplete for his career because injuries really prevented us from seeing what kind of longevity he could provide. He was a fresh face in Minnesota and a very different look from the KG run show, which helped him thrive. He averaged 20 ppg in the 2002 playoffs and peaked with 20.1 ppg in 2006 and while he would end up in Seattle eventually, they could have used his diversity, defensive enthusiasm and shooting (a career 40.6-percent shooter from downtown) at this point as they too looked for an identity in the early post-Kemp/Payton era.

Pick 14: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: William Avery
Who they should have took: Raja Bell (undrafted)
Why: Raja was never going to significantly turn heads, but he was another guy who (as a sixth man) was crucial to the mid-2000 Phoenix Suns teams that looked like they may win an NBA title. Bell would have been great relief for Garnett in Minnesota, especially in his 2005-06 and 06-07 seasons when he averaged career high 14.7 ppg for the Suns.

Pick 15: New York Knicks
Who they took: Frederic Weis
Who they should have took: James Posey (18th pick)
Why: Look, I know James Posey isn’t Michael Jordan. However, he also isn’t Frederic Weis. Thankfully. Posey averaged only 8.6 ppg throughout his career but was strong defensively and eventually a surprising revelation of a player during the Celtics’ ‘Big Three’ championship run. And he was consistent, providing about the same level of work until his final two seasons. He would have been the kind of blue collar player that the Knicks used years earlier at their peak and although he would have never been a star, he would have played harder than anyone else they really had at this point.

Friday, May 23, 2014

Redrafting the 1998 NBA Draft

Give me your Sam Bowie and your Greg Oden and I will laugh at your definition of bust. Meet Michael Olowokandi. He had a mediocre horror film inspired nickname (The Kandi Man), but that was about the only thing inspired about him or his career. The Clippers, the perennial draft choke artists, took a gamble. And they bust. As usual. This time, just bigger. Look at a draft with five All-Stars and with two or three Hall of Famers and they took a guy who scored a career with 12.3 points per game while shooting a near career low from the field.

The thought of that draft pick, with Vince Carter and Dirk Nowitski (both TRADED on draft night) and Paul Pierce just sitting there, it makes me cringe. It is another vibrant note of what the Clippers might have been had they drafted well. A franchise could have been stabilized with Nowitski or Pierce at the helm.

It was also a weird year for trades, with the 4th, 5th, 6th and 9th picks swapped. It was like teams knew what they wanted, but really didn’t.

And then there was Orlando. While the draft helped turn around the Mavericks, Kings and Raptors and set into motion a return plan for Boston, it was Orlando who could have potentially struck gold. Instead, they turned their three top-15 picks into Michael Doleac, Keon Clark and Matt Harpring. Tragic. Just tragic. They managed to be a 3-seed in the playoffs after a lockout shortened 1998-99 season, but when Penny Hardaway’s support system as these three, there is not question why Allen Iverson took them to the wood shed in the playoff’s opening round.

Pick 1: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Michael Olowokandi
Who they should have took: Dirk Nowitski (9th pick)
Why: This was a class it was hard to choose who should be the first pick, but Nowitski gets the nod. He was looked at as raw, but long enough to play either forward spots, or even center, once his body reached his potential. He did so quickly in Dallas (good job Milwaukee, trading him is almost like Charlotte trading Kobe). By far the best German born NBA player ever, maybe the best German basketball player ever and easily one of the best jump shooting 7-footers ever. He would have been a homerun for the Clippers instead of the debilitating strike out they went with instead.

Pick 2: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Mike Bibby
Who they should have took: Paul Pierce (10th pick)
Why: After his ex-Kansas teammate bombed in the draft the year before, there was probably some concern about Pierce. After all, Kansas was producing quality college players who were mediocre at best pros (see ‘Blue Devils, Duke’ for more reference on that). Pierce broke that mold. At a time where one player, one identity was what Memphis yearned for, Pierce could have been that like he became for the Celtics. Especially after a move to Memphis, Pierce could have been a Grizzlies lifer, forever altering their franchise and sadly the Celtics too, just not in a good way. And while Bibby was a good pick for Vancouver, they didn’t get his best years while Pierce would have proved to be the most valuable piece in franchise history and their first Hall of Famer.

Pick 3: Denver Nuggets
Who they took: Raef LaFrentz
Who they should have took: Vince Carter (5th pick)
Why: Even though he has fattened with age, Carter still is a terrific player as seen by his highlight reel buzzer beater in this year’s playoffs. But take that away and in 1998 you still have an explosive get-to-the-basket scorer who could glide through the air with ease. The next ‘Next Jordan’ was probably the closest thing to the original because of how he soared and the awe in which people were in when the man shortly dubbed ‘Air Canada’ took flight. NBA dunk contest win with some of the best dunks ever? Check. Leaping OVER a defender for Team USA to dunk? Check. And turning around the Raptors franchise? Check. They could have used any one of those rubs in Denver, where the Nuggets were continuing a pace of downright pathetic.

Pick 4: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Antwan Jamison (traded to Warriors)
Who they should have took: Mike Bibby (2nd pick)
Why: Bibby put up a hectic pace on the court, really picking up where he left off at Arizona and was a catalyst in the early years for the other Canadian club. Unlike most guys, especially of this era, I think that Bibby was right coming out after his sophomore year as the NBA was better development for his game than college would have been. While Carter, the eventual Raptor from this draft, was the perfect pick up, he realistically possibly wouldn’t be available here so Bibby would have been a pretty great pickup to team with Tracy McGrady in a drive and dish team.

Pick 5: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Vince Carter (traded to Raptors)
Who they should have took: Antwan Jamison (4th pick)
Why: They got him anyway. So it was the right pick all along. He was supposed to be Carter’s equal in the ever expanding line of freak UNC athletes (see ‘Stackhouse, Jerry’) and he never panned out in that manner but was still helpful every single place he landed from 1998 through this past season. He mustered together All-Star seasons in Dallas and Washington after he built up a reputation as a dangerous scorer in Golden State where he twice scored 51 points in a game. The Warriors made the right choice here, though I would like to re-free agency for them so they could try to hold onto the career 18.5 ppg scorer into his All-Star years.

Pick 6: Dallas Mavericks
Who they took: Robert Traylor (traded to Milwaukee)
Who they should have took: Brad Miller (undrafted)
Why: Dallas clearly needed to go big and they made the wrong choice to do that with before trading the same night for the way right choice. But with Nowitski off the board and Robert Traylor being a laughable choice today, Miller would have a perfect fit. The reality is, he wasn’t going to turn around the franchise like Nowitski did, but he was a guy who steadily improved each and every year, culminating with back-to-back All-Star appearances (yes, as an undrafted player) for two different teams. He only averaged 6.3 ppg and 3.1 rpg as a rookie (though still an undrafted one) in Charlotte, but never put up lower numbers except for in his final season once his body was pretty well done over his career low 15 games in 2011-2012.

Pick 7: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Jason Williams
Who they should have took: Rashard Lewis (32nd pick)
Why: In a draft with a lot of talent, it’s hard to drop down the draft for back-to-back picks but Lewis earned his spot higher in the draft with how quickly he exploded. He wasn’t ready to come straight out of high school in 1998, but unlike most that are not ready early, he quickly figured it out, going from scoring 2.4 ppg and putting down 1.3 rpg as a rookie to 14.8 and 6.9 numbers in his third year. All-Star appearances and 22.4 ppg in his final year in Seattle netted him a big paycheck from Orlando and while he was never as valuable again, he still is a critical role player in the league. Considering is longevity wanting to stay in Seattle, he probably would have long hauled it in Sacramento to and became a great additional inside threat with Vlade Divac and Chris Webber as they were starting their big run.

Pick 8: Philadelphia 76ers
Who they took: Larry Hughes
Who they should have took: Ricky Davis (21st pick)
Why: Ricky Davis and Allen Iverson would have either been the biggest clash of teammates in NBA history or been nasty together. Like late-80’s Detroit kind of nasty. The pick of the best player right here would be Jason Williams, but with a flashy, tough as nails point guard (Iverson) already in the fold, it wouldn’t make much sense. Davis ultimately proved too selfish for the league, but showed signs of actual brilliance before LeBron James stole his thunder in Cleveland. The year before James entered the league, Davis scored 20.6 ppg to lead the Cavaliers. And while all he led them to was the first pick in the draft, he showed he could play. Sadly, he now knew he could score in bunches, so giving up his touches to LeBron was not in his personal game plan. He never played the same again. However, if he could have found that rhythm without being “the guy,” like in Philly, he may have never lost his scoring swagger.

Pick 9: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Dirk Nowitski (traded to Dallas)
Who they should have took: Jason Williams (7th pick)
Why: The Milwaukee Bucks don’t even want to think about this draft. Not even a little bit, not even at all. This was Charlotte Hornets bad. They actually drafted Nowitski (who admittedly, isn’t Kobe) and traded him for ROBERT “TRACTOR” TRAYLOR (who still isn’t Vlade Divac good). Never pick a guy named after a semi. Always pick a guy who is nicknamed White Chocolate. Williams helped turn around the Kings, though he had more help. Milwaukee needed some flare and he had that by the buckets full.

Pick 10: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Paul Pierce
Who they should have took: Al Harrington (25th pick)
Why: The Celtics are like the Mavericks. Thank god there really is no such thing as going back in time and re-drafting. With the exception of Larry Bird, no pick in the history of their franchise has been as important as this one was for Boston (could that change this year?). And Al Harrington would have been downright disappointing in comparison, but not all together disappointing. Like a lot of the later drafted high school kids, his adjustment time was too long (in comparison to Pierce), but he still developed into a dynamic player for a while. He was long and physical and the Celtics were just throwing up draft picks at this point. Harrington wouldn’t stick like Pierce did, but he still would have provided a solid option for an ailing team. The downside? Without Pierce, no matter who this pick was, they may still be ailing (as opposed to ailing again).

Pick 11: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Bonzi Wells
Who they should have took: Cuttino Mobley (41st pick)
Why: Mobley is one of those guys that you know his name, but you don’t give him much second thought unless you are a Cuttino Mobley or Rhode Island fan. Detroit was seeing an end to the somewhat disappointing (and injury filled) Grant Hill era and was trying to make things click with a bevy of veterans to add some spice to whatever Grant could provide that particular year. Adding Mobley may have not paid initial dividends, but had he stayed in Detroit as long as he did in Houston (where he was drafted and still averaged almost 10 ppg as a rookie), then he would have been highly valuable in the thick of the Pistons’ championship run. He put up a career best 21.7 ppg and 1.5 spg in 2002 and then still put up 15.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.2 apg and 1.3 spg in the Pistons championship season, which would have made them even more unbeatable as another option.

Pick 12: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Michael Doleac
Who they should have took: Larry Hughes (8th pick)
Why: Orlando needed a lot and although the pickings are slimmer at this point, they sure aren’t Doleac-Clark-Harpring slim. Hughes was a hot shot freshman coming from Saint Louis, with a game very reminiscent of Penny Hardaway himself. It would have been like a younger, still a little raw version of Penny working side by side with him in Orlando, which could have been pretty fun to watch.

Pick 13: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Keon Clark
Who they should have took: Bonzi Wells (11th pick)
Why: Not a lot of career Muncie, Indiana guys finding success in the NBA, but Wells surely did. He would have played a lot as a rookie in Orlando (not sure why he didn’t in Portland, where he was traded to before he ever played a game) and therefore jumped up his scoring average quicker than he was allowed to do in 7 games as a rookie. In between his first and last years in Portland, he never played less than 66 games, never shot worse than 44 percent from the field and like Mobley was consistent in chipping in scoring, defense and rebounding.

Pick 14: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Michael Dickerson
Who they should have took: Raef Lafrentz (3rd pick)
Why: He wasn’t really a bust per say, but Lafrentz also wasn’t third pick material (Denver may have passed on Pierce, Nowitski, Carter, Jamison, Williams, etc.). Houston would have been a place for him to develop inside without pressure where Denver expected him to just take over after his success with Pierce at Kansas. And while he finished his college career only behind Kansas legend Danny Manning in scoring and rebounding, he sure wasn’t Danny Manning in the pros. With Clyde Drexler’s retirement and before the Yao Ming era began, Lafrentz could have helped make the Houston interior solid as he never averaged under 12 points or 7 rebounds in his first four seasons, all in Denver.

Pick 15: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Matt Harpring
Who they should have took: Sarunas Jasikevicius (undrafted)
Why: First of all, Orlando needed everything. Second of all, Jasikevicius was before his time. Before the basketball world required gun slinger point guards, Jasikevicius was doing it. His style never really fit at Maryland as a Lithuanian import and thus pro teams didn’t latch on to him. By the time an NBA team did (the Indiana Pacers in 2005), it was too late. And although he was still efficient, he had lost a step and couldn’t keep up with the new age, young gun slinger guards in the league. But had someone taken a chance on him at all in 1998, he himself could have been someone that revolutionized the league from a flashy point guard perspective, much how Jason Williams, of the same draft class, helped do. His leadership and ability have made him one of the best Lithuanian born players ever and a shot in Orlando would have been a perfect setting for him to get the chance before it was too late.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Redrafting the 1997 NBA Draft

Let’s call it a tale of one man. The 1997 NBA Draft produced just three future All-Stars and slew of never-was-beens. But at the top sat Tim Duncan, one of those, as we keep learning, oh-so rare transcendent players. Duncan was a game changer and the Spurs didn’t even need one. But with David Robinson and Sean Elliott injured in 1996-1997, there they found themselves with the first pick. Though I am betting the Celtics (with the best statistical chance of getting the pick) were more than upset, the Spurs were glowing.

And even they couldn’t have known all of what they were about to get. It would end up being perhaps their best draft pick ever. And that is saying something.

Pick 1: San Antonio Spurs
Who they took: Tim Duncan
Who they should have took: Tim Duncan
Why: San Antonio really doesn’t make a habit out of picking in the lottery, but when they made their one pick of the modern era, they sure made it count. For all of the talk of “NBA ready” bodies, Tim Duncan was truly that. They picked first in 1997 and won a title in 1999, in a LARGE part due to Tim Duncan. The fact that they (as of today) are two wins away from another NBA Finals (their 6th with Duncan) and have won 4 titles is a testament to just how ready Duncan was and still is at age 38.

Pick 2: Philadelphia 76ers
Who they took: Keith Van Horn
Who they should have took: Chauncey Billups (3rd pick)
Why: When Boston took Billups 3rd, it was a mistake. He proved that over a couple of years and stretches elsewhere. But he found a mentor and found his way and became the next best player out of this draft. It was a remarkable turnaround for a guy drafted 3rd who probably would have been a late second round pick if the redraft happened 3 years later. His work ethic and leadership propelled the Pistons to their 2004 title and he has been a peak performer mostly ever since except for the last couple of years. But his peak scoring season, few remember, came 12 years into his career.

Pick 3: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Chauncey Billups
Who they should have took: Tracy McGrady (9th pick)
Why: Frame. That is what McGrady lacked in 1997. The worries of high school kids were gone thanks to KG and Kobe. But for T-Mac, he didn’t have the size that most GMs wanted. He went on to be a seven-time All-Star and scorer until the day he left the NBA for a baseball career. But at his peak he was a two-time scoring champion in Orlando, taking the crown from Allen Iverson. Nobody in this class, even Duncan ever led the league in scoring.

Pick 4: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Antonio Daniels
Who they should have took: Stephen Jackson (42nd pick)
Why: Ok, I get you…Jackson is a jerk. But he is a jerk you want on your side on the court (or in the stands as the case may be). Jackson was one of the last old school NBA bullies and he made every shot (at the basket or his opponent) count. The Grizzlies, before they moved to Memphis needed a guy to make you scared. Jackson would have been that guy. Just not too many people knew about him as one of the rare draft picks out of community college.

Pick 5: Denver Nuggets
Who they took: Tony Battie
Who they should have took: Keith Van Horn (2nd pick)
Why: Van Horn is one of those guys who gets a bum rap. He wasn’t second pick material, but still managed over 16 ppg in nine years with four clubs. For the 1997-1998 Nuggets squad that flirted with being the worst team in the league’s history, any boost Van Horn could provide would have been nice.

Pick 6: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Ron Mercer
Who they should have took: Antonio Daniels (4th pick)
Why: With Rick Pitino taking over, why not take Mercer, who was a big letdown in the league. I can see how they thought they were taking the right guy at the time, but he didn’t provide the defensive game on the perimeter that Pitino and the Celtics wanted. Daniels would have been a solid pick, not a steal here. He made the most of a career full of moves, hovered around 9 ppg most seasons and was going to a disruptive on-ball defender at worst.

Pick 7: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Tim Thomas
Who they should have took: Derek Anderson (13th pick)
Why: Anderson was never the player he was at Kentucky, but in a draft of few guards, he ended up putting up some ultimately good numbers while he was young. He provided Cleveland scoring in his first two years and had his best seasons in years 3 and 4 with the Clippers (16.9 ppg) and the Spurs (started all 82 games). Outside of two seasons being rarely used, his production never slipped too far offensively. With a rebranding and Jayson Williams at his best in the post the coming season, a savvy guard like Anderson would have been helpful.

Pick 8: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Adonyl Foyle
Who they should have took: Bobby Jackson (23rd pick)
Why: Because he wasn’t Adonyl Foyle. Jackson slipped in the draft because of size, but flourished after his trade before his rookie season to Denver where he averaged 11.6 ppg. Golden State was in a state of flux, a then-constant rebuild and Jackson would have lended a lot of credibility to the product.

Pick 9: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Tracy McGrady
Who they should have took: Maurice Taylor (14th pick)
Why: Toronto was getting their footing and Maurice Taylor had some of that Fab Five flash in his system (and sadly for him, some of that Fab Five cash too). He never got his legs under him mostly because of his poor choices. His status and stature would have served Toronto well though for a couple of years before it all came falling down.

Pick 10: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Danny Fortson
Who they should have took: Brevin Knight (16th pick)
Why: The Bucks were trying everything and I do mean everything to win. They traded their All-Star (Vin Baker) for two hens and a yam and then drafted a guy who barely jumped to shoot the ball. Knight on the other hand was an explosive and undersized slasher who led Stanford in scoring, assists and steals while putting them back in a national spotlight.

Pick 11: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Tariq Abdul-Wahad
Who they should have took: Tim Thomas (7th pick)
Why: At the time, I was totally behind the original Kings pick. As Olivier St. Jean, the now Abdul-Wahad led an underdog San Jose State team into the NCAA Tournament and looked like he was primed to break out in the pros. Then he changed his name. And then he sucked. If Sacramento knew that one of their “helpful” recent draft picks in Brian Grant was leaving in free agency, I feel they would have gone bigger. And while Thomas wasn’t (shocker) as good as projected, his 11 points per game in 77 games as a rookie was far better than Abdul-Wahad’s six.

Pick 12: Indiana Pacers
Who they took: Austin Croshere
Who they should have took: Tony Battie (5th pick)
Why: This is a hard pick to want to change because Croshere was such an iconic face (in that, cult classic way) during the Pacer rebirth. With Chris Mullin, Reggie Miller, Rik Smits and host of mid-sized role players, the Pacers came within an eyelash of the NBA finals in 97-98 and Battie would have served them well as they really didn’t have a true backup to Smits.

Pick 13: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Derek Anderson
Who they should have took: Austin Croshere (12th pick)
Why: See above. Croshere was that guy you want on your team. He picks everyone else up. And maybe he could have flourished earlier in Cleveland, not with a contender like Indiana. With the Pacers, he didn’t get to play much early, peaking in his third season. In Cleveland he would have been relied upon early and I think he would have reacted. In a revamping offseason, the Cavs were more than happy to get Anderson, but I don’t think Croshere would have hurt either.

Pick 14: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Maurice Taylor
Who they should have took: Scot Pollard (19th pick)
Why: The slipping of Kansas’ two prospects from 1997 probably had something to do with a Sweet 16 loss to Arizona. Where, while the game was close, the Wildcats exposed a lot of weaknesses that didn’t look so weak the previous game against Purdue. Pollard was one of those two and his enigmatic behavior didn’t help. He was a wild card at Kansas and became more of one later, with it only really being a benefit during his time with the rag-tag Sacramento King contender teams.

Pick 15: Dallas Mavericks
Who they took: Kelvin Cato
Who they should have took: Jacque Vaughn (27th pick)
Why: See above (at least the “The slipping of Kansas’ two prospects from 1997 probably had something to do with a Sweet 16 loss to Arizona. Where, while the game was close, the Wildcats exposed a lot of weaknesses that didn’t look so weak the previous game against Purdue” part). Vaughn just didn’t have size on his side which hurt him because he was never too quick either. As the league was developing into a more fast paced game, he was out of place. In Dallas, where he could have learned an up tempo pace from Jason Kidd, he would have been better off. After all, he surely wasn’t learning run and gun from John Stockton in Utah.


Redrafting the 1996 NBA Draft

One of the best drafts, if not the best of the 90's, with four Hall of Famers and six more guys who were very good for what they did in their careers as quality NBA players. It was also a showcase for 12 of the biggest draft blunders ever. Those 12? The first 12 picks before the Charlotte Hornets drafted this kid named Kobe. But I guess you can count them as blunder #13 since they shipped him to Los Angeles for Vlade Divac.

After a share of forward and center heavy drafts, this was the guard draft that a lot of teams had been salivating for and when you look at the names selected, you can see why.

Pick 1: Philadelphia 76ers
Who they took: Allen Iverson
Who they should have took: Kobe Bryant (13th pick)
Why: Why? Do I even need to fill this out? Like Garnett the year prior, nobody really knew how to feel out a kid coming straight from high school yet. And while Garnett became a great, Kobe became a top 10 player in the history of the league and arguably the best overall since Michael Jordan. Iverson turned Philly's fortunes around but Kobe would have won them a title or two (or three or four). He was the best player in this draft because he was (in my humble opinion) the best player drafted in the 1990's or 2000's.

Pick 2: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Marcus Camby
Who they should have took: Steve Nash (15th pick)
Why: He was a quiet unassuming ex-soccer player when he came into the league in 1996, but Steve Nash became an assassin on a basketball court, one of the all-time great point guards. Unfortunately, because of their pick of Damon Stoudamire the previous year, the Raptors were one of the few teams in this draft not interested in the guard pool, even in their second season. Camby wasn't a bad pick at the time for anyone, especially the Raptors needs. But looking back, you send Stoudamire packing at take one of our generation's great playmakers.

Pick 3: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Who they should have took: Allen Iverson (1st pick)
Why: He ended up there years and years later, but imagine an early Grizzlies with AI, where they wouldn't have had to (incorrectly) leaned so much on Bryant Reeves. Iverson was such a strong presence on the court throughout his career and while I doubt he would have been happy staying in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada for long, I am willing to bet he would have led them to success to some degree before bolting after his rookie contract.

Pick 4: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Stephon Marbury (traded to Timberwolves)
Who they should have took: Ray Allen (5th pick)
Why: While the Allen/Marbury pair was such a toss up from the beginning (hence being swapped eventually anyway), Allen ended up being the better NBA player mostly because of his willingness to play the game. When things were ending for him credibly in Milwaukee, he accepted his move to Seattle. When it was time to move on, he did again to Boston and again to Miami. Marbury however was never the player he could be because he wanted to do things the Stephon Marbury way. Allen reached his potential and was great for Milwaukee during his years there. I don't see any reason why they would want to change that.

Pick 5: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Ray Allen (traded to Bucks)
Who they should have took: Stephon Marbury (4th pick)
Why: In retrospect, I am sure they would rather just keep Allen. But it doesn't work that way. Marbury was a hell of a basketball player and even seeing how things shook out for him, you try to redo the hatred filled Marbury/Kevin Garnett relationship if you can. And even for all of his personality flaws, Marbury was still productive in all of the places he ended up (except for that late run in Boston) and still is productive on a lower level in China today. He was the third best option in 1996 and went fourth. With Kobe, Nash and Allen becoming Hall of Fame players, he dropped down in this group, but still stands as a tremendous player.

Pick 6: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Antoine Walker
Who they should have took: Jermaine O'Neal (17th pick)
Why: Another high school kid in 1996 and it is funny to think now that teams in the middle of the first round and late in the lottery were trying to decide between he and Kobe, not that Jermaine wasn't more than efficient. One of 10 All-Stars in this class, O'Neal was on the verge of being a long term upper echelon player when he was averaging over 20 points per game in Indiana before a basketbrawl kind of sent him backwards in performance and expectations. A combo of he and future Celtic Paul Pierce would have given Boston a great scoring duo to get them back towards the top quicker, even if Walker was helpful in his own right in doing just that.

Pick 7: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Lorenzen Wright
Who they should have took: Peja Stojakovic (14th pick)
Why: Passing on KG and Kobe in back to back years? Well at least they weren't the only ones. Peja was almost as unknown of a commodity as the high school kids, but became such a clutch scorer and the Clippers needed anything at this point. But again, the European imports were just becoming popular like the high schoolers and it was just so hard to gage what their success would be. His 13,000 points and 40.1 percent from three-point range for his career indicate that this was also a golden era for European prospects coming in to the league.

Pick 8: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Kerry Kittles
Who they should have took: Marcus Camby (2nd pick)
Why: Camby could have benefited from another year in college, but at this point he was looked at as a guy with an NBA ready body. He wasn’t quite NBA ready, but that didn’t stop him from a productive career spanning across the league. Sure his production has slipped, he never averaged more points per game than he did his rookie year and although still playing, he doesn’t do much. But at this stage, with the Ed O’Bannon experiment clearly failing, Camby would be a good solid piece for the Nets to work with. And his 14 points per game in his rookie year would have helped them a lot.

Pick 9: Dallas Mavericks
Who they took: Samaki Walker
Who they should have took: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (20th pick)
Why: When the Cavaliers ultimately decided to take a pair of Europeans. Ilgauskas was not the one expected to be productive. Years later he was an All-Star and had his jersey retired by the Cavaliers. As I said in the 1995 blog, the Mavericks were a team searching for an inside presence at this point. And while Walker had style...of some sort...Ilgauskas became the type of player that Dallas tried and failed with when taking Cherokee Parks and Samaki Walker.

Pick 10: Indiana Pacers
Who they took: Erick Dampier
Who they should have took: Derek Fisher (24th pick)
Why: Name a player in recent memory that has been reliable on and off the court than Derek Fisher. This kid from Arkansas-Little Rock didn’t turn many heads in 1996, but he did so almost every year afterwards. He has won five NBA title and has been crucial in them all. Though mostly a Laker during two separate runs, Fisher was helpful with every team he has been with, including currently in Oklahoma City. One day he will make a great coach because Fisher knows the ins and outs, in every way, of this game. He was pretty unknown and dropped to the Lakers (who combining the Fisher pick and getting Kobe, won this draft), but there is no way he slides out of the top 10 if this draft is today.

Pick 11: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Todd Fuller
Who they should have took: Erick Dampier (10th pick)
Why: Dampier ended up having his best season in Golden State anyway, so why not go early. Another one of those career strong role players, Dampier shined in Golden State in the post, which they clearly wanted (though taking the way wrong guy for the second year in a row). He kept a respectable pace and was helpful in the Mavericks world title run in 2010. Take a break for a second and remember that the Magic could have had this pick had they not traded it back to Golden State and take Kobe Bryant to team with Shaq. Oops.

Pick 12: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Vitaly Potapenko
Who they should have took: Antoine Walker (6th pick)
Why: Walker’s decline was haunting. And that is one of the things we remember the very most about him. We remember this aging, fattening man in decline who went bankrupt and tried everything he could to get back to the league through the D-League. That Antoine Walker may not be worth a first round pick. But while in Boston early, he was a heck of a scorer. Six of his first 9 seasons were spent as a 20+ point per game scorer and he was a guy who was reliable right away. He knew how to get to the basket and be a bully once he was down there.

Pick 13: Charlotte Hornets
Who they took: Kobe Bryant (traded to Lakers)
Who they should have took: Shareef Abdur-Rahim (2nd pick)
Why: Do the Hornets win because the draft isn’t today? No. They lose. They lose a lot. They are the ultimate losers. The Charlotte Bobcats laugh at them. As bad as it is for the 12 other teams to have passed on Kobe Bryant (in retrospect), how much worse is it to have had him and then given him away. Kobe Bryant. Its like drafting Jordan or LeBron or Dwayne Wade and then just giving them up for Robin Lopez. Abdur-Rahim is a way better choice than Vlade Divac.

Pick 14: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Peja Stojakovic
Who they should have took: Lorenzen Wright (7th pick)
Why: Wright floundered before finding his spot in Atlanta and getting shipped to Memphis where he led off with a 12 ppg and 9 rpg season, legitimizing his spot in the mid-echelon of post players. And then he declined, almost every year. Sacramento needed a strong strictly guard and at this point, there isn’t much talent that way left. So you take the best prospect and that was Wright and is Wright, you just hope you have him before the decline or can at least prevent it.

Pick 15: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Steve Nash
Who they should have took: Kerry Kittles (8th pick)
Why: The face of the starving generation of the Nets, Kittles would still be a good pickup for a team because he had a worth ethic almost unrivaled in this draft class at the time when the class was picked.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Redrafting the 1995 NBA Draft

It was a Draft that could have been built as one for the ages. Many more of those “can't miss” prospects, headlined by a future superstar in Joe Smith, the money story of the first high school player going pro in decades and a pair of talents from Chapel Hill. That high schooler, Kevin Garnett, changed the game forever because of the notable high school players that followed in the coming years and how it led to the NBA's one and done rule and is still relevant today as the league considers imposing an age limit of 20.

The players, especially near the top had solid careers, but only one really ended up standing out as a superstar. And it was not the one projected to do so.

Pick 1: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Joe Smith
Who they should have took: Kevin Garnett (5th pick)
Why: Far and away the best player in this draft, which was so hard to see then. He was raw and out of high school and nobody had any indication how that would transfer at this point. Not since Moses Malone had a notable player come straight to the league more than 20 years earlier, so Garnett was a huge question mark, even when he was ultimately taken at five. Looking back, the addition of Garnett could have propelled the Warriors into contention, as he eventually did in Minnesota. Imagine if you will a world where Golden State never moved Chris Webber. Could you imagine C-Webb and KG teaming up? A soon-to-be Hall of Famer, one of the few things lacking from Garnett's resume is being selected number one overall.

Pick 2: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Antonio McDyess (traded to Nuggets)
Who they should have took: Rasheed Wallace (4th pick)
Why: The Clippers really did not benefit from this pick, which netted them Brent Barry and Rodney Rogers in a trade. Wallace, who was looked at as equal to college teammate Stackhouse, would have been more valuable to LA than their pick or the two guys they got in trade. With Garnett off the board, Wallace, who was more than serviceable especially as a NBA champion in Detroit would be the way to go. In the real draft, passing on Wallace, Stackhouse and especially Garnett were just three more mistakes to add to a long list of Clippers draft blunders throughout history.

Pick 3: Philadelphia 76ers
Who they took: Jerry Stackhouse
Who they should have took: Jerry Stackhouse
Why: In a redraft, Stackhouse was not only the best player available, he was the right option for Philly, which he may have been in 1995 as well. They didn't really need the presence of Wallace and this wasn't a guard heavy draft so they couldn't improve there either. Stackhouse is one of the top 76ers of the modern era and once even led the league in scoring after leaving the city of brotherly love.

Pick 4: Washington Bullets
Who they took: Rasheed Wallace
Who they should have took: Antonio McDyess (2nd pick)
Why: While Wallace ended up with the better body of work, what he did for Washington in his years there could have been equaled by McDyess. Many forget what McDyess did during his career. When you pick a guy in the top 5, you expect a superstar. But more often than not, you get far from that. More guys in the top 5 end up busts than end up consistent performers like McDyess. The fact that he did so well too with many injuries that rarely slowed his helpful pace makes him still a good pick up in this draft.

Pick 5: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Kevin Garnett
Who they should have took: Joe Smith (1st pick)
Why: Joe Smith was not the superstar of this class. But that didn't stop him from being a great overall athlete and another solid career contributor in the league, a role that each of the top 5 (outside of Garnett's superstar talent) took on. Plus, I think Minnesota would have preferred adding Smith this way more than when they did so in free agency years later, violating the salary cap and losing a first round pick for multiple years because of it. Minnesota however also should be happy with what they got instead of Smith as Garnett was the their first draft pick to really pan out.

Pick 6: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Bryant Reeves
Who they should have took: Michael Finley (21st pick)
Why: A productive defender and bench player for years to come, Finley was a steal when he went after a decent career at Wisconsin. For Vancouver, anything would have been better than the disappointment of 'Big Country.' Finley may have not been able to be a cornerstone for the organization but he would have been a good place to start for this new organization.

Pick 7: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Damon Stoudamire
Who they should have took: Damon Stoudamire
Why: Toronto, like Vancouver, was in their first draft and needed a young athletic player to build around. Stoudamire remains the best choice to do that. Mighty Mouse is probably the most recognizable player from the Raptors early seasons for a reason and that is because he was the early, short term lynchpin that they needed him to be.

Pick 8: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Shawn Respert (traded to Milwaukee)
Who they should have took: Theo Ratliff (18th pick)
Why: Ratliff, like Finley, was a nice surprise future All-Star late first round pick. He was a strong interior defender over the years. In a draft that got moderately shallow after the top 5, Ratliff would have added some life to the lifeless Trail Blazers, who struggled from about this point until about two years ago. It would have been more helpful than either Respert or Gary Trent, who they traded for.

Pick 9: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Ed O’Bannon
Who they should have took: Corliss Williamson (13th pick)
Why: What we knew about Williamson from his National Title days at Arkansas was that he was tough as nails, a reputation that developed even more in the NBA. He was good at making something out of nothing. Because let's face it, Arkansas was not exactly rich with talent when they stood atop the college mountaintop. New Jersey, at this point was looking for a blue collar proven winner, which is why they went with O'Bannon. What O'Bannon didn't provide however was a motor or effort for a higher level, something that Williamson never was short on even when he was short on talent.

Pick 10: Miami Heat
Who they took: Kurt Thomas
Who they should have took: Brent Barry (15th pick)
Why: 8,0000 career points and one of the more surprising NBA Dunk titles ever. That is what Brent Barry brought the Clippers that he could have brought to Miami. Barry was a strong passer and shooter throughout his career, another service guy in this draft that was often reliable. But as a rookie, he captured perhaps his biggest moment by taking off from the free throw line to win the Dunk Contest, one of the more shocking wins ever in the contest (and some note of interest, he is still the only white guy to win the contest). In Miami, he could have taken the crown from the Heat's Harold Minor, who had reached his decline.

Pick 11: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Gary Trent (traded to Portland)
Who they should have took: Kurt Thomas (10th pick)
Why: Lather, rinse, repeat? Thomas was a strong defender who proved to be a good journeyman. Heard it before. Pretty consistent with this draft. And at least he wasn't Shawn Respert.

Pick 12: Dallas Mavericks
Who they took: Cherokee Parks
Who they should have took: Greg Ostertag (28th pick)
Why: While often forgotten in the story of the Utah Jazz's title contention years, Ostertag was an anchor. Like Byron Russell years earlier, the Jazz lucked out in getting him late in the draft. Dallas was starting to build something by 1995 after three drafts that got them their 3 J's (Jim Jackson, Jamal Mashburn and Jason Kidd) and a centerpiece in the post would have legitimized them a lot. Unfortunately (and I say this with as much kindness as I can as a Duke fan), they incorrectly thought that Parks was going to be that guy. Ostertag would have been a great pick here.

Pick 13: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Corliss Williamson
Who they should have took: Bob Sura (17th pick)
Why: Part of me says take Bryant Reeves or Alan Henderson here because the Kings clearly wanted another interior player to pair with Brian Grant, but I really think with Bobby Hurley's injury, they could have bit the bullet on taking on a productive point guard here. Sura would have served good in the direction that the Kings were going in with their tempo.

Pick 14: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Eric Williams
Who they should have took: Fred Hoiberg (52nd pick)
Why: This was such a horrible draft era for the Boston Celtics, why not take a gamble on a guy who played such a specific role in the league. Hoiberg was a spot up shooter, nothing more and nothing less. But why not take that shot? He was a guy who, in the locker room, could have brought together the rag tag group that they had and would assemble during the losing years in Boston. Paul Pierce came in and did that eventually, but it took him a while to have the level of maturity that Hoiberg did immediately.

Pick 15: Denver Nuggets
Who they took: Brent Barry (traded to Clippers)
Who they should have took: Bryant Reeves (6th pick)
Why: Big Country is another guy who never panned out, but his first four years or so are worth at least the 15th pick. The Nuggets could have used a perimeter player but Reeves wouldn't be passable here. He was strong and built like a house. And, even if you trade this pick away as they ended up doing, you could probably have gotten a better return investment from a team that picked late that really wanted a role player center.