Mock Draft as of June 21, 2011
1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Kyrie Irving
> The Cavs clearly really wish that they could make a move to assure they can take Derrick Williams here, but the Timberwolves and Jazz have showed no signs that they would pass on Irving, despite having point guards in the fold. Irving is the only team changer in this draft, so with no guarantee he is around at 4, the Cavs have to take him here.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves - Derrick Williams
> It is a tough spot for Kahn and company moving forward. They have the pieces in place to try and grow right now, but will they next year? Next summer, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love and Anthony Randolph can move on if they want and the Timberwolves need to prepare for life without one or two of them. And while Kanter could replace their size the best, only Williams has the ability to replace their athleticism.
3. Utah Jazz - Brandon Knight
> The answer to this pick lies in whether the Jazz plan on trying to resign Ronnie Price and/or Earl Watson (or acquire another player in free agency) to deep their guard core deep. Devin Harris, Raja Bell and Gordon Hayward can't do it alone. Their biggest need will be to replace AK-47, but I think Kanter is too big of a gamble to bring in when there is a wing as talented as Knight on the board.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers - Enes Kanter
> I disagree with this pick because I don't see as much of an upside as other people do in Kanter. With that said, he is the 4th best choice in a draft that is no more than 5 people deep. I'd be tempted if I was running the show to take Jonas Valanciunas here as I think he will have more long term prospects. But in Cleveland, I think the goal is more to stop the bleeding now and everyone seems to think Kanter is more suited for that.
5. Toronto Raptors - Kemba Walker
> Toronto is not deep at all in guards and if Leandro Barbosa does decide to bail, you can't waste this pick on a foreign project player. Jonas, Jan and Bismack are all possibilities here, but in most cases, foreign = risk. Take the undersized speedy point here and hope he is the perfect accent to Demar Derozan.
6. Washington Wizards - Jonas Valanciunas
> John Wall needs another playmaker alongside of him on a team that is going to be completely rebuilt if Washington does things right. And while there are some athletic combos out there, logic dictates that a rebuilding Wizards that would lose Yi Jianian need a big man. Jonas is the best one in the draft overall, so Washington shouldn't be able to pass if he is still here.
7. Sacramento Kings - Jan Vesely
> The game changers are gone at this point for sure, so the Kings become the first team in a crapshoot that is going after who they believe to just be the best player on the board, almost regardless of who is the best fit for your team. Sacramento truly has too many holes to try and place the best fit here. Vesely is different than the previously picked Euro imports in this: Enes will help now, Jonas will help later...and Jan, well he's either going to be a huge star or monumental bust.
8. Detroit Pistons - Klay Thompson
> Talk about a rebuild. With McGrady, Price and Rip all likely out the door, the Pistons need to address needs in their guard depth in a draft primarily of 3's, 4's and 5's. That will be tough for this team who will really need to pass up on better players here to address specific needs. If Kemba Walker is still around, he is the pick, but I don't think he will be so they will need to take a gamble and move Thompson up the draft board.
9. Charlotte Bobcats - Kawhi Leonard
> With 12 free agents over the next two years, this wouldn't be a bad time for MJ's club to wipe the slate clean and come out new. If you do that, you have to think who can be a foundation like you once wanted Emeka Okafor to be. Let's just hope this pick turns out to be a little more lucrative.
10. Milwaukee Bucks - Marcus Morris
> Honestly, I think the Bucks need to trade out of this spot. It's a top-10 pick, which means they can get something strong out of it. They need depth that a couple more role players and/or a couple second round picks could help with more than taking anyone here that is left in the draft. If they keep it, Morris is the safe choice with Bismack Biyombo's stock going down some, even though the Bucks will be salivating over the Congo native if he is around.
11. Golden State Warriors - Bismack Biyombo
> Stock down or not, you have to take him here. Depending on what mock you look at, he's going somewhere between 8-21, which is a dangerous range. He is 18 and has a lot of growth in his future. He is a major gamble, but sometimes you have to take those risks.
12. Utah Jazz - Donatas Motiejunas
> This pick comes down to where Utah went early. If they went with Knight as I project, then you have to go big and that's where Motie, who has a tremendous long term upside, comes in. He has gone from a top 5 pick in most eyes to a borderline lottery pick, but that is only because of his need for development right now. If for some reason they went with Kanter early, you need a guard here and I think they'd find it hard to pass up Fredette, who they could use in the same mold that they used Kyle Korver.
13. Phoenix Suns - Jimmer Fredette
> If Utah picks him, the Suns organization will collectively cry. I don't know that Jimmer will be any better of a pro than JJ Redick was (though I hope he's better than Adam Morrison turned out to be). I believe he will have a tougher time than most think he will being more than one dimensional at the pro level. But if any place can make him work on his dribble penetration, it is in Phoenix. If the Jazz do snag him at 12, I expect Phoenix to take Motie here.
14. Houston Rockets - Alec Burks
> This will be another puzzling piece that could get shifted in a trade. The Rockets won't lose much in free agency because Yao isn't going anywhere. They could get a decent value from this pick. That said, if they keep it they have to be smart and pick up one of two guys still sitting around that shouldn't fall out of the lottery (even though wisdom says find a Yao replacement even if he is back).
15. Indiana Pacers - Markieff Morris
> The asthetically pleasing pick here won't be the best. Morris has good upside and has been doing himself favors to jump up most boards, though usually not this high. With Foster and McRoberts likely out in free agency, they need a consistent post to come in with Hansbrough. I like Tristan Thompson here, but I think he is more style over substance. Marshon Brooks is another option if they end up looking to replace TJ Ford.
16. Philadelphia 76ers - Tristan Thompson
> Did you know Tony Battie was even still in the league?! Easy way to replace him here if Thompson is still on the board.
17. New York Knicks - Chris Singleton
> Here is a tough gamble. Your role players could all be heading out the door, so maybe you need to replace them. Or perhaps you need an heir-apparent at the PG behind Chauncey Billups, but that all depends on how you feel about Toney Douglas' future or your ability to snag Deron Williams or Chris Paul next summer (pending the new CBA). But the fans of NYC are so used to dissapointment, they won't be surprised if nothing works out, so you have to take the best available role player here.
18. Washington Wizards - Marshon Brooks
> Assuming that they addressed little to help immediately with their lottery pick, you have to take the best playmaker here. Who that could be, is actually a toss up.
19. Charlotte Bobcats - Kenneth Faried
> I think this is a prime spot to actually take a big risk in a position where you don't have any standouts and the players you do have could be gone this summer or next. Faried can do a lot without looking like he is. Why not take the risk if you can.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves - Tyler Honeycutt
> Another pick I would trade. Why? Because they don't even really need the #2 pick when you compare it to the value they can get out of it and the depth they already have with a combo of Flynn, Rubio, Randolph, Beasley and Love. This team should be winning now and they aren't, so trade this pick for a role player somewhere else. If not, take Honeycutt because he can play 2-3 spots on the floor.
21. Portland Trailblazers - Darius Morris
> This is a team that proved they are nowhere near competing out West in the playoffs. They are old and need a young spark. I think they would be smart to package some expiring contracts like Camby and/or Andre Miller and try to sniff out a lottery pick. But assuming they do nothing there, they need to find help for Roy and Batum (if they keep him next summer) and that comes in the form of replacing Andre Miller as the point.
22. Denver Nuggets - Jordan Hamilton
> They had a lot of post-Carmelo luck, but it ran out quickly in the Wild West. It would be stupid to lose Wilson Chandler, Nene or JR Smith, but we have to assume that maybe Denver is trying to get out of that role of Western Conference thug, which would see Smith and Kenyon Martin not resigned. There are two players here, Hamilton and Tobias Harris, that could give them something they need, so it comes down to which they think will be more helpful.
23. Houston Rockets - Tobias Harris
> This pick is likely to be the best available player and Harris, the Tennessee combo forward, is the best I have left on my draft board at this point. He won't play much, but has strong athleticism and is as high as a top 15 pick some places. If he is really still available, you have to snag him.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder - Reggie Jackson
> They have the chance to lose just one player to free agency this year, so all this fast rising team needs is a potential replacement for Daquan Cook. As much as I'd try and keep Cook, Westbrook and Robinson have the point guard spot nailed down. I'd bring in a true PG that those two can mentor, but can also help mold into a combo guard. There are some good options sitting around here, but I don't see OKC bringing in Nolan Smith or Shelvin Mack just to sit them (something most late first round teams won't do and will cause those two to slip).
25. Boston Celtics - Kyle Singler
> Yeah, I am a little biased here, but I also can see that this would be the best pick for the Celtics. He is the type of blue color, get to the basket player that the Celtics are missing. He can come in for Paul Pierce and dribble-drive for a score or a kick out to Ray Allen, or sub him in for Ray and let him stand and pop three's. Singler is the missing piece to a puzzle that really only needs a player like him and another solid post that they can get with Shaq's contract money in free agency. He is the right piece to the puzzle if they (smartly) bring back Jeff Green, Delonte West, Glen Davis and Nenad Krstic. And if they don't bring those four back, then they need to reload their bench anyway and why not go with such a proven scorer?
26. Dallas Mavericks - Davis Bertans
> Because, why not?
27. New Jersey Nets - Shelvin Mack
> At the end of round one, its a crap shoot. The Nets need a more than servicable guard to help Deron Williams in 2011-2012 and replace Deron Williams in 2012-2013 should he decide to leave. That need will help either Mack or Nolan Smith.
28. Chicago Bulls - Nolan Smith
> For the Bulls, there isn't much work to do. With that said, their two end of the first round picks could go almost anywhere. They would love to take an athletic '3' right here and then have their pick of PG's at 30, but if the Nets truly do snag Mack, then they can't gamble on losing Nolan Smith at 29. For that reason and that reason only, I think they take Smith here to come in as a Derrick Rose backup.
29. San Antonio Spurs - Malcolm Lee
> All the Spurs really need here is a smart shooting two-guard to replace the collective strengths of Chris Quinn and Steve Novak. They are still a year away from really needing to start a rebuild, so I don't think they will do a lot of shopping here. Lee is a stretch this high, but the best person to fill that spot.
30. Chicago Bulls - Jeremy Tyler
> As seen in their playoff loss to Miami, the biggest weakness for Chicago is in the post when Carlos Boozer isn't active. And although I am sure they would like to take JuJuan Johnson here, it's just not the most intelligent move as far as filling any holes. They take a gamble on Tyler here and hope that his game is close to NBA ready after leaving high school early to play overseas.
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Just outside of Round One and their best fits early in round 2:
Justin Harper (Richmond) - A good fit for Miami at #31 because of the maturity in his game.
Nikola Vucevic (USC) - He is a hard player to read and could up as a gamble in the opening round, but I see him falling, possibly to Sacramento at #35.
Chandler Parsons (Florida) - Parsons could do a lot for Miami (#31) in filling in behind Udonis Haslem, but if they go with Harper, he would be great pickings for Washington at #34.
JuJuan Johnson (Purdue) - If Cleveland could nab him at #32, it would be the best fit for both and the Cavs would have a steady core of rookies with Irving, Kanter and Johnson.
Jimmy Butler (Marquette) - If Detroit (at #33) needs to bolster their guards, this would best.
Norris Cole (Cleveland State) - The Nets (#36) need Cole if they pass on Mack or Smith in the opening round, if not, I'd see the undersized small conference player ending up in Sacramento (#35) or with the Clippers (#37).
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Other players of interest and their best fits:
Josh Selby (Kansas): He is a mid-second rounder because of his undersized frame and his underdeveloped game. If he wasn't a freshman, he'd be right there with Mack, Smith and Cole as a late first round, early second round selection. Look for him at #41 to the Lakers or #42 to Indiana.
Keith Benson (Oakland): He stayed his senior season, maybe to his detriment after expecting to be a first rounder last year. He didn't develop his game more, but he added experience with another run into the NCAA Tournament. I see him going to the Lakers at #46, but if not he will drop to Memphis at #49.
David Lighty (Ohio State): The kid is going to get drafted and end up in the D-League, but it comes down to which team thinks he can help them in the future after he takes his game from being so one dimensional. I think Denver at #52 or Boston at #55 take that chance.
LaceDarius Dunn (Baylor): Dunn is too good of a creator to not go, but his 6'4'', 188 pound frame does not do him any favors. I see Sacramento rounding out the draft with him at #60.
Jacob Pullen (Kansas State): Here is a chilling reality that spells the difference between the college game and the pro game: Pullen won't get drafted. The lack of a need of point men and the fact that Smith, Mack and Cole have more calm games, plus his lack of size all work out of his favor. Pullen will luck out though because every other player in this catagory is likely D-League bound and I think he will end up with a contract and playing more than he would in the NBA if he gets drafted. I would love to see Boston bring him in if they don't resign Delonte West, but I also think he'd be a good fit in Portland to replace the aged Andre Miller. And you never know, those teams pick at #55 and #51 respectively.
E'twaun Moore (Purdue): He is off most draft boards, but too athletic to ignore. I think the Lakers may take a chance with him at #56, and if not, he will likely still be there for them at #58.
Jamie Skeen (VCU): His name value and what he added to VCU's improbable Final Four run should get him drafted. He is a straight the NBDL kind of guy, so it just comes down to which team wants to add him, knowing they won't use him for a year or two. I wouldn't be surprised to see Orlando do so at #53.
