Past Predictions (UFC 100-102, 104-111, 113-114, UFC on VERSUS 1-2): 82-76-1
Last Card: 7-3
PRELIMS
Ben Saunders vs. Dennis Hallman
Hallman has crazy experience, but Saunders is just plain crazy. A guy like Hallman is either going to charge forward or lay back too much. He's experienced and that means he will be able to pick apart most fighters. But who can predict Ben Saunders? In his two losses, people got lucky. Crazy + Reach = Victory number 9.
Saunders by 2nd Round TKO
Stefan Struve vs. Christian Morecraft
Struve's reach isn't as much as you'd think it would be cracked up to be. Morecraft is not slouch either in height and his weight, record and mystery are enough to outdo Struve's hesitance.
Morecraft by Unanimous Decision
Johny Hendricks vs. Charlie Brenneman
Such an even matchup where the fighters have a combined 20-1 record. This could be a match that helps shape the future of the welterweight division long after the clog at the top straightens itself out and the mid-level guys (Hughes, Serra, etc.) finally retire. This could be the fight of the night and that is saying alot.
Hendricks by 3rd Round TKO
Tim Boestch vs. Todd Brown
Not much here, I just don't think Brown has the ability to outduel his counterpart. Sadly, Boestch needs sometone to push him.
Boestch by Unanimous Decision
Phil Davis vs. Rodney Wallace
This is the fight that will really show that Wallace's potential time has already passed him by. He's powerful, but Davis is closer to today's prototypical light heavyweight. He stays unbeaten.
Davis by 1st Round Submission
Dustin Hazelett vs. Rick Story
Quick one here again. Story lucked out against Nick Osipczak and Hazelett won't give him the time of day to sneak by.
Hazelett by 1st Round KO
MAIN CARD
Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson
All conventional wisdom says that Junior Dos Santos will knock the shit out of Big Country. He has powered his weigh through opponents and became the heavyweight division's next big thing (no easy task among the world of next big things: Lesnar, Carwin, Duffee, Velasquez). Then a funny thing happened: along came Roy Nelson, the former IFL champion, and all conventional wisdom has gone away. Conventional wisdom said that Kimbo Slice would pound this fat guys' face in. Conventional wisdom said that the younger, far more athletic Brendan Schaub would just go to town on Nelson. Conventional wisdom even said that Stefan Struve's reach was gonna be way too much. But somehow, Roy Nelson has been plowing through the UFC. I've picked against Roy...and I've been wrong...somehow. I like JDS, I really do, and I expect good things to happen in his career.
Nelson by 2nd Round KO
Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida
I hate Matt Hughes. But really, why are the experts picking him to lose. The UFC considers this guy the greatest welterweight of all-time. I rank him 2nd. Either way, Ricardo Almeida isn't in the top 15 ever, if even close to that.
Hughes by Ground and Pound in 3rd Round
Clay Guida vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
If Frankie Edgar gets back in the cage and beats BJ Penn again, then I see Penn going up to welterweight. Why is that important here? Because Clay Guida has always had a ceiling in the division. But with the likes of Diego Sanchez, Nate Diaz and perhaps Penn moving on up, Guida has the chance of a lifetime if he can win here. The man can fight with inspiration and fire that I don't know if Dos Anjos has.
Guida by Split Decision
Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves
The rematch. The same result. Alves, I believe, has rushed back too much from the injuries, failed to make weight at the official weigh-ins and is just not mentally in this from what I saw at the press conference.
Fitch by 1st Round TKO
UFC Middleweight Championship
Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen
The consensus is that Sonnen's only hope is to take down and lay on top of Silva five times. But Sonnen has noted that he plans to swing at Silva. So here is how it really will go: Sonnen tries to swing in round one, but realizes he can't swing with The Spider. The round is close, could go either way. In round two, he goes with the lay and pray theory, takes Anderson down a minute in and lays there for the 10-9. In round three, Anderson gets restless and makes Chael look like Forrest Griffin. All that, or Anderson actually nuts up and knocks Chael out in round one. My heart and my cheers Saturday night go to Chael Sonnen, who I enjoy as a fighter and as a comedy act...but my brains stills works and so do Anderson Silva's limbs.
Silva by 3rd Round TKO to RETAIN the UFC Middleweight Championship
Showing posts with label Jon Fitch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jon Fitch. Show all posts
Friday, August 6, 2010
Friday, March 26, 2010
UFC 111 Quick Picks
UFC Predictions (100-102, 104-110, UFC on VERSUS) 58-58-1 - last card: 7-4
PRELIMS
Matthew Riddle vs. Greg Soto
~Riddle needs to win to bounce back from a tough first loss. And though Soto doesn't want his first, Riddle has developed into a very mentally tough fighter.
Matthew Riddle by Unanimous Decision
Rousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz Drwal
Drwal by 2nd Round TKO
Rodney Wallace vs. Jared Hamman
Wallace by 1st Round KO
Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown
Brown by 2nd Round Submission
Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham
~If ever there was a man with a chip on his shoulder, it's Nate. Bad news is Chip+Good Fighter will probably equal a long night for Markham...metaphorically.
Diaz by 1st Round TKO
MAIN CARD
Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek
Miller by Unanimous Decision
Ben Saunders vs. Jon Fitch
~What a hard fight to pick. Saunders is clearly crazy for wanting to get into the cage with Fitch on NO notice. Crazy can always help someone in the Octagon and I see how it has been beneficial to Saunders' career. However, taking a fight with Jon Fitch while you haven't been training for Jon Fitch is questionable. Even worse than that, Fitch has been training for a fight with Thiago Alves, a man prone to potentially taking your head off. I admire Saunders' guts. But this will be the best Fitch we've ever seen.
Fitch by 2nd Round KO
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes
Pellegrino by Split Decision
Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin
~Win and get Brock. Motivation enough.
Mir by 2nd Round KO
Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy
~Hardy is top notch (if its 2012 and St. Pierre has either retired or traded up to Middleweight). This says quick picks so let me be quick. Hardy puts up a good effort...not good enough.
St.Pierre by 3rd Round TKO
PRELIMS
Matthew Riddle vs. Greg Soto
~Riddle needs to win to bounce back from a tough first loss. And though Soto doesn't want his first, Riddle has developed into a very mentally tough fighter.
Matthew Riddle by Unanimous Decision
Rousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz Drwal
Drwal by 2nd Round TKO
Rodney Wallace vs. Jared Hamman
Wallace by 1st Round KO
Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown
Brown by 2nd Round Submission
Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham
~If ever there was a man with a chip on his shoulder, it's Nate. Bad news is Chip+Good Fighter will probably equal a long night for Markham...metaphorically.
Diaz by 1st Round TKO
MAIN CARD
Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek
Miller by Unanimous Decision
Ben Saunders vs. Jon Fitch
~What a hard fight to pick. Saunders is clearly crazy for wanting to get into the cage with Fitch on NO notice. Crazy can always help someone in the Octagon and I see how it has been beneficial to Saunders' career. However, taking a fight with Jon Fitch while you haven't been training for Jon Fitch is questionable. Even worse than that, Fitch has been training for a fight with Thiago Alves, a man prone to potentially taking your head off. I admire Saunders' guts. But this will be the best Fitch we've ever seen.
Fitch by 2nd Round KO
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes
Pellegrino by Split Decision
Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin
~Win and get Brock. Motivation enough.
Mir by 2nd Round KO
Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy
~Hardy is top notch (if its 2012 and St. Pierre has either retired or traded up to Middleweight). This says quick picks so let me be quick. Hardy puts up a good effort...not good enough.
St.Pierre by 3rd Round TKO
Thursday, December 10, 2009
>UFC 107 Predictions
UFC Predictions (100-102, 104-106): 26-38-1 - last card: 6-3-1
It is that time again, yes another UFC event. This one, like so many lately, is not what was originally broadcast to be. Instead of Rampage/Rashad, it is headlined by an equally heavy handed potential slugfest and for a world title even.
PreLims
Kevin Burns def. TJ Grant
2nd Round Submission
Edgar Garcia def. Marques Johnson
3rd Round TKO
Rousimar Palhares def. Lucio Linhares
1st Round TKO
Johny Hendricks def. Ricardo Funch
2nd Round Submission
Matt Winman def. Shane Nelson
Unanimous Decision
Wilson Gouveia def. Alan Belcher
2nd Round KO
MAIN CARD
Stefan Struve vs. Paul Buentello
I won't pretend to be an expert on either of these guys. But I do know this: it is never a good day to face a 6'11'' guy in any athletic competition when you are 6'2''
-Struve by 1st Round TKO
Kenny 'KenFlo' Florian vs. Clay 'The Carpenter' Guida
It's a tough life to live for Guida, who is always right on the cusp at 155, but will never be top tier. He fought Diego Sanchez, which was a good match up because they both swing for the fences, but Diego is just better at that which is why Clay fell to this fight and isn't challenging BJ Penn. Neither is going to be rendered irrelevant in a loss here, but the loser will get pushed significantly back down the 155 ladder. Guida is a swinger, but Florian is just plain smarter than almost everyone in the UFC, so what he lacks in aggression, he makes up for in mentality. Someone steps closer to a title shot, someone has to put it on the back burner.
-Florian by 2nd Round Submission
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Pierce is a scrappy guy, but has the unfortunate reality of running into THE scrappy guy in the UFC. Fitch will take a beating and keep on ticking, as he showed in his most unfortunate loss at the hands of Georges St. Pierre. And Pierce is no GSP when it comes to putting the hurt or the pressure on. The welterweight division is packed full of contenders, but the question is who is the top draw (even with Dan Hardy getting the next crack at GSP). Koscheck, Rumble, Paulo Thiago...they all may have to stay 2nd string because a dominant win for Fitch here could catapult him back to top contendership for the GSP/Hardy winner.
-Fitch by 1st Round KO
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
I personally don't think that this fight will be as close as some. Kongo, while likeable, just does not have the world's most killer instinct. And while Mir does not often show his on TV or outside of the cage, he sure knows when to turn it up. And knowing that Mir's primary focus in all of life is Brock Lesnar, he knows that he has to dominate every fight until the UFC matches him back up with Brock. I don't see this fight as the pure 'Strike vs. Submitter' that the UFC is trying to bill it as. Instead, it's a striker, with no other significant abilities against THE BEST submitter in the division, who can just as well knock you out. I think Frank will do both just to prove he can...knock him down, then tap him out.
-Mir by 2nd Round Submission
UFC World Lightweight Title
'The Prodigy' BJ Penn vs. Diego 'The Nightmare' Sanchez
I am 1-3 in predicting title fights since UFC 100. Is that because I don't have faith in the old guard? Possibly. Two of those misses came in the last two fights, predicting that Penn and Machida would fall in their last defenses. I also have a problem picking fighters I like based purely on that fact. I need to change my mentality on both of these things because of this: BJ Penn is one of the best smaller MMA fighters ever. He proved me wrong last time in SOME ways. He outlasted Kenny Florian and killed the strategy of testing BJ's gas tank over five rounds. I said earlier in this post that Kenny Florian is one of the smartest fighters in the UFC and he is...but BJ Penn outsmarted him. If BJ can outsmart Diego, then this will be a very long, methodical fight where BJ will retain again and maybe end up with the Nate Diaz/Gray Maynard winner. But, there are some holes that need to be pointed out. Number one, BJ was exhausted after five rounds with Kenny Florian, so he would be really exhausted after five rounds with a worker like Diego Sanchez, no matter what Diego's tank may look like (and who knows...we've never seen Diego go five). With that said, BJ knows and has said that his mentality in this fight when Diego runs at him is to run right back at Diego. This would be the dumbest thing that I have ever seen because Penn just can't let 'em fly like Nightmare can. I would love to say this will be an epic, five round war that will redefine this division. And if it does go that far, there is a much greater chance that BJ Penn will be retaining and Diego will fall. But BJ has told us his gameplan and when he does that, he usually sticks to it. I, sadly for BJ, believe what he says, so that really only means one thing to me.....
-Diego Sanchez by Second Round TKO to become the NEW UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPION OF THE WORLD
That's right, i'm throwing out the conventional wisdom to go against what I normally do. Instead of playing it "safe," I am going with a new champion and a fighter that I just plain like a lot better. But it's not for the same reasons as usual. This time it's educated and it's because BJ's making me do it. Sorry champ, you never run at the rhino that's about to gore you. Time for a change.
It is that time again, yes another UFC event. This one, like so many lately, is not what was originally broadcast to be. Instead of Rampage/Rashad, it is headlined by an equally heavy handed potential slugfest and for a world title even.
PreLims
Kevin Burns def. TJ Grant
2nd Round Submission
Edgar Garcia def. Marques Johnson
3rd Round TKO
Rousimar Palhares def. Lucio Linhares
1st Round TKO
Johny Hendricks def. Ricardo Funch
2nd Round Submission
Matt Winman def. Shane Nelson
Unanimous Decision
Wilson Gouveia def. Alan Belcher
2nd Round KO
MAIN CARD
Stefan Struve vs. Paul Buentello
I won't pretend to be an expert on either of these guys. But I do know this: it is never a good day to face a 6'11'' guy in any athletic competition when you are 6'2''
-Struve by 1st Round TKO
Kenny 'KenFlo' Florian vs. Clay 'The Carpenter' Guida
It's a tough life to live for Guida, who is always right on the cusp at 155, but will never be top tier. He fought Diego Sanchez, which was a good match up because they both swing for the fences, but Diego is just better at that which is why Clay fell to this fight and isn't challenging BJ Penn. Neither is going to be rendered irrelevant in a loss here, but the loser will get pushed significantly back down the 155 ladder. Guida is a swinger, but Florian is just plain smarter than almost everyone in the UFC, so what he lacks in aggression, he makes up for in mentality. Someone steps closer to a title shot, someone has to put it on the back burner.
-Florian by 2nd Round Submission
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Pierce is a scrappy guy, but has the unfortunate reality of running into THE scrappy guy in the UFC. Fitch will take a beating and keep on ticking, as he showed in his most unfortunate loss at the hands of Georges St. Pierre. And Pierce is no GSP when it comes to putting the hurt or the pressure on. The welterweight division is packed full of contenders, but the question is who is the top draw (even with Dan Hardy getting the next crack at GSP). Koscheck, Rumble, Paulo Thiago...they all may have to stay 2nd string because a dominant win for Fitch here could catapult him back to top contendership for the GSP/Hardy winner.
-Fitch by 1st Round KO
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
I personally don't think that this fight will be as close as some. Kongo, while likeable, just does not have the world's most killer instinct. And while Mir does not often show his on TV or outside of the cage, he sure knows when to turn it up. And knowing that Mir's primary focus in all of life is Brock Lesnar, he knows that he has to dominate every fight until the UFC matches him back up with Brock. I don't see this fight as the pure 'Strike vs. Submitter' that the UFC is trying to bill it as. Instead, it's a striker, with no other significant abilities against THE BEST submitter in the division, who can just as well knock you out. I think Frank will do both just to prove he can...knock him down, then tap him out.
-Mir by 2nd Round Submission
UFC World Lightweight Title
'The Prodigy' BJ Penn vs. Diego 'The Nightmare' Sanchez
I am 1-3 in predicting title fights since UFC 100. Is that because I don't have faith in the old guard? Possibly. Two of those misses came in the last two fights, predicting that Penn and Machida would fall in their last defenses. I also have a problem picking fighters I like based purely on that fact. I need to change my mentality on both of these things because of this: BJ Penn is one of the best smaller MMA fighters ever. He proved me wrong last time in SOME ways. He outlasted Kenny Florian and killed the strategy of testing BJ's gas tank over five rounds. I said earlier in this post that Kenny Florian is one of the smartest fighters in the UFC and he is...but BJ Penn outsmarted him. If BJ can outsmart Diego, then this will be a very long, methodical fight where BJ will retain again and maybe end up with the Nate Diaz/Gray Maynard winner. But, there are some holes that need to be pointed out. Number one, BJ was exhausted after five rounds with Kenny Florian, so he would be really exhausted after five rounds with a worker like Diego Sanchez, no matter what Diego's tank may look like (and who knows...we've never seen Diego go five). With that said, BJ knows and has said that his mentality in this fight when Diego runs at him is to run right back at Diego. This would be the dumbest thing that I have ever seen because Penn just can't let 'em fly like Nightmare can. I would love to say this will be an epic, five round war that will redefine this division. And if it does go that far, there is a much greater chance that BJ Penn will be retaining and Diego will fall. But BJ has told us his gameplan and when he does that, he usually sticks to it. I, sadly for BJ, believe what he says, so that really only means one thing to me.....
-Diego Sanchez by Second Round TKO to become the NEW UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPION OF THE WORLD
That's right, i'm throwing out the conventional wisdom to go against what I normally do. Instead of playing it "safe," I am going with a new champion and a fighter that I just plain like a lot better. But it's not for the same reasons as usual. This time it's educated and it's because BJ's making me do it. Sorry champ, you never run at the rhino that's about to gore you. Time for a change.
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