Monday, November 10, 2008

Day Four: Major Confereces Part 2

IAD 2008-2009 COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW DAY THREE
BEST OF THE MAJORS PART 2: "ACC/A-10/Pac-10/SEC"


There is a lot to be said for North Carolina, not only in the ACC, but nationally as well. More often than not, the Tar Heels are considered the favorite to walk out of 2009 with a National Title. Sadly, that can almost be said every year of Tyler Hansbrough's tenure at UNC. And no, its not just the Tar Heel hater in me that expects them to fail (ok, that's a part of it). Everyone from Chapel Hill to Durham (and even places not on Tobacco Road) need to face the real facts that UNC are not closers. Hansbrough, coach Roy Williams, Ty Lawson and company are all more pretender than champion. UNC will be good, but also beatable in the clutch.

And even as a hardcore Blue Devil fan, I can't put all my objective (ha) professional faith in Coach K and company. Honestly they have a lot to prove and their two main weaknesses are glaring. The most notable is in the post where Brian Zoubek isn't exactly a stud and Kyle Singler isn't most efficient. Hopefully Miles Plumlee will alleviate this issue some. Also, they froze in the clutch. Their tournament time wouldn't have been as good as it was had it not been for Gerald Henderson while the rest of the team folded like laundry (and that's putting it nicely).

Behind them, 3 through 10 in the ACC is pretty even with Miami on the verge of their best ACC season to date.

Xavier should run away in the Atlantic 10, even though Dayton, St. Joe's, Temple and Charlotte will all mae noise in their own ways. The Musketeers return just under 30 points in CJ Anderson, Derrick Brown and BJ Raymond alone. Tack on two 6'8'' transfers and a seven-foot freshman and this team should blow them all away.

I am not exactly sure how to feel about the Pac-10 just yet. It's obvious that UCLA will take the crown out there yet again. They lost three pretty significant players, but return three more of equal calibar. Darren Collison in the best player in the conference, hands down, and the people around him will make his job easier. Even their freshman class is stacked with five players from the Top 50. Arizona has a decent team, led by Chase Budinger, but they have had plenty of offseason perils with the retirement of coach Lute Olsen and the loss of Brandon Jennings to international play. I question the Wildcat focus at this point. USC has plenty of talent to work with even if OJ Mayo is gone, but I still think that UCLA is far and away in a league of their own. The problem with this conference is it is much more of an individual talent team outside of UCLA, much like the ACC is outside of Duke and Carolina.

In the SEC, things look pretty different everywhere you look. Each team lost someone quite important to their nucleus in the offseason and it will be interesting to see who bounces back quickest. Tennessee has a solid core still and should be the team to beat, but I think that Billy Donovan's Florida Gators will return to the promised land sooner than later. They struggled badly after the loss of Joakim Noah and company, but Nick Calathes played so strong last year and should put the Gators back at the top of at least the SEC East and back into the NCAA's.

Individually, I am loving Dionte Christmas at Temple. Even with a down year for the Atlantic 10, this guy is sensational and will be one of the nation's top individual players. Tyrese Rice fits into that same category and is explosive as an individual but saddled with an at-best sub par team in Boston College. Though I'm not liking them as much, you can go ahead and throw Chris Warren from Ole Miss and Devan Downey of South Carolina in that same 'good player, mediocre team' catagory as the season begins.

AD Vassallo at Virginia Tech and AJ Ogilvy at Vanderbilt will be make or break players for their schools. Ogilvy, just a sophomore, will be a First Team player in the SEC and may even contend for conference player of the year honors. Also, watch Taj Gibson at USC to see if he can pick up the slack of the departed OJ Mayo. The pressure is on Gibson to lead a still talented Trojan team that also has a lot of new faces. Also under coach Tim Floyd, keep an eye out for Romeo Miller (son of rapper/ex-short term NBA player Percy "Master P" Miller). I don't expect him to do much at all, but it will still be interesting to watch him on the court.

ALL-MAJOR (ACC, A-10, PAC-10, SEC) CONFERENCE PLAYERS TO WATCH
Tyler Hansbrough (North Carolina) - Player of the Year
Kyle Singler (Duke)
Darren Collison (UCLA)
Dionte Christmas (Temple)
James Harden (Arizona State)
AJ Ogilvy (Vanderbilt)


OTHER MAJOR (ACC, A-10, PAC-10, SEC) PLAYERS TO WATCH
Gerald Henderson (Duke)
Tyrese Rice (Boston College)
Jack McClinton (Miami)
Ty Lawson (UNC)
AD Vassallo (Virginia Tech)
Jeff Teague (Wake Forest)
Chase Budinger (Arizona)
Josh Shipp (UCLA)
Taj Gibson (USC)
Jon Brockman (Washington)
Walter Hodge (Florida)
Jai Lucas (Florida)
Patrick Patterson (Kentucky)
Marcus Thornton (LSU)
Chris Warren (Ole Miss)
Devan Downey (South Carolina)


IAD CONFERENCE CHAMPION PREDICTIONS (if different than regular season winner, automatic bid recipient will follow in bold)
ACC: Duke - North Carolina (NCAA Bid)
A-10: Xavier
PAC-10: UCLA
SEC: Tennessee (East), LSU (West) - Tenneessee (NCAA Bid)

Friday, November 7, 2008

Day Three: Major Conferences Part 1

IAD 2008-2009 COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW DAY THREE
BEST OF THE MAJORS PART 1: "The Bigs"

Part one of my look at the seven "major" conferences starts with "The Bigs" of the Big East, Big Ten and Big XII (that's twelve if you can't count roman numerals). These conferences always bring a good deal of excitement to the table, and in 2008 they even brought a national title by way of the Big XII's Kansas Jayhawks.

16 teams total to put the "big" in Big East whereas many as 10 teams could honestly find themselves dancing come March. Leading that pack is Notre Dame, who have no real household names behind Luke Harangody, but just a consistent core of players that includes four seniors and three juniors other than Harangody. Sure, they lost 12.5 ppg with the graduation of Rob Kurz, but they also add redshirt freshman Carleton Scott, who will likely shoulder half of that load while senior combo Ryan Ayers will also chip in a few more on the offensive end. Behind them is a hungry UConn Huskie team that prematurely exited the 2008 tournament in part due to an injury to AJ Price. Athlon Sports picks them to make it to the National Title game and that may be something that the Huskies have to cash in on right away with Price's forthcoming graduation and the likelihood that 7'3'' junior Hasheem Thabeet will also take his size and low-post skill pro come June.

But, where to go from behind these two? Picks 3-10, all very likely tournament candidates, will be tough to make. Louisville, Pittsburgh and Marquette are the likely choices to be on the heels of Notre Dame and UConn, but Georgetown, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia and Providence would all like to make cases for themselves as well.

It's an upperclassmen laden conference that also happens to be highlighted by lightning quick guards. I can't wait to see the super-duo of Dominic James and Jerel McNeal at Marquette. Unfortunately, the load is all theirs, along with a couple other guards with no real post threat. If you want an intriguing post threat in the Big East, look no further than New Jersey where 6'9'' JR Inman is going to do some damage for Rutgers. I'd expect the senior to improve his numbers a bit and likely average 15 and 10 in his final season.

And while the Big East flourishes, the Big 10 is kind of another story. Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State should all shine their dancing shoes, but beyond that, it's looking pretty sparse. The Boilermakers should be a runaway champion in the conference, losing just one player in transfer Scott Martin. He transferred because he was not seeing enough minutes, so chances are they won't miss him too much. Chances are even more likely that the Purdue faithful will be too busy watching Martin's ex-classmates Robbie Hummel, E'twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson run roughshod over the league. Toss in the sturdy veteran Chris Kramer and this is likely to be at least an Elite Eight team. Wisconsin will also be interesting to watch, despite losing over 20 ppg. Numbers for Marcus Landry and Trevon Hughes will go way up.

Possible the most interesting thing to watch in the Big 10 this year will be likely last place Indiana, who returns just Kyle Taber. Who, you ask? Exactly. JuCo transfer Devan Dumes, freshman late signee Malik Story and walk-on Evan White are the ones who I think will do the most damage or at least look good in trying.

Ohio State's return to the tournament will not be that easy. They didn't make it there last season for a reason, despite winning the NIT, and they lost their top three scorers. So everybody in Columbus is going to have to pick up the slack if they hope to return to the real madness of March. I'm expecting freshman BJ Mullens to have the best "non-Oden" year that anyone has had for the Buckeyes in recent memory.

Big XII = Blake Griffin. Remember that equation and come June, you will also know how to solve the NBA Draft Lottery equation (hint: 1 = Blake Griffin). Coach Jeff Capel took over a becoming inbattled program from the cheat-tastic Kelvin Sampson and has done some good things with it. His best move, getting Griffin to stay in school and lead the Sooners deep into the 2009 postseason. He'll get some help from junior Tony Crocker but Willie Warren, the freshman who led the McDonald's All-American game in scoring, will give Oklahoma the perfect outside match for Griffin's inside power. Texas will contend, but unless AJ Abrams can get some help inside (Dexter Pittman just ain't gonna do it). Baylor hadn't been to the NCAA's in 20 years before being the last choice this past Spring, but they will be back again I'm sure, however they won't bridge that big gap between them and the top two teams in the Big XII.

Behind those three, it's tough to call. Kansas returns just four players (Sherron Collins being the most experienced) from their National Champion team, but junior college transfer Mario Little will pick up more than his fair share of slack. Oklahoma State, Missouri and (kind-of) Texas Tech will all have to rely on new coaches. Meanwhile, Nebraska's off-season has been ripe with injury and big recruits bailing.

ALL-MAJOR (Big East, Big 10, Big XII) CONFERENCE PLAYERS TO WATCH
Blake Griffin (Oklahoma) - Player of the Year
AJ Abrams (Texas)
Hasheem Thabeet (UConn)
Dominic James (Marquette)
Luke Harangody (Notre Dame)
Robbie Hummel (Purdue)

OTHER MAJOR (Big East, Big 10, Big XII) PLAYERS TO WATCH
Sherron Collins (Kansas)
Mario Little (Kansas)
Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati)
AJ Price (UConn)
Jerel McNeal (Marquette)
JR Inman (Rutgers)
Scottie Reynolds (Villanova)
Raymar Morgan (Michigan State)
BJ Mullens (Ohio State)
E'Twaun Moore (Purdue)
Marcus Landry (Wisconsin)
Trevon Hughes (Wisconsin)

IAD CONFERENCE CHAMPION PREDICTIONS (if different than regular season winner, automatic bid recipient will follow in bold)
Big East: Notre Dame
Big 10: Purdue
Big XII: Oklahoma

Thursday, November 6, 2008

>Day Two: Mid-Major Conferences

IAD 2008-2009 COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW DAY TWO
BEST OF THE MID-MAJOR CONFERENCES

One step aside from being one of the big boys, the Mid-Major programs in Division 1 basketball have made a habit out of making noise come tournament time, no matter where they are or who they face. Their conference races and tournaments have grown to be some of the most interesting in all of college basketball. That trend was highlighted last early-spring with one conference in particular: the West Coast Conference.

Gonzaga has long been the upset and underdog kid of the NCAA Tournament that their Cinderella ways brought more interest into the West Coast Conference. Last year, two more teams made it way more interesting and together with the 'Zags, this year should be the conference's best ever. In 2008, all three of these teams went on to the NCAA Tournament and I wouldn't be shocked to see Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Diego all return again this season. And while most outlets believe that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will be the "Toast of the Coast" (catchy, ain't it?)- I am fully behind the belief that San Diego will not only win the tournament title again, but that they will win the WCC outright. And why? Because the highly underrated Gyno Pomare was one of the most interesting and explosive players to watch last spring and he's not even statistically San Diego's top player. All five starters and top four scorers from last year are back, led by Pomare and senior Brandon Johnson. Johnson averaged just under 17 ppg but led the league with 80 three-pointers. Behind them, Gonzaga with Jeremy Pargo and St. Mary's with Patrick Mills are going to give the Toreros fits.

Barely considered a Mid-Major, Conference USA will be a point of interest as well with Memphis, UAB, UTEP and Tulsa all grasping for the crown. Memphis lost so much in NBA draftees Joey Dorsey, Chris Douglas-Roberts and that guy named Derrick Rose. But what cures the ills of coach John Calipari? A man by the name of Tyreke Evans. Arguably the best freshman in the country, Evans was the MVP of both the McDonald's All-American Game and the Jordan Brand Classic and should put up some Rose-like numbers this year. He's highlighted by senior big man Robert Dozier and I am imagining that junior JuCo transfer Roburt Sallie (originally committed to Nebraska) will help out on the wing as well. Behind them first is Tulsa, who has an awkward mix of veteran and newcomer at almost every position but are led by headstrong junior guard Ben Uzoh (15.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg). UAB will be the confusing team to read as they could go as far as upsetting Memphis for the top spot or being fifth in the conference depending on how the team gels around senior Robert Vaden. Can the younger squad account for the 22.2 points per game lost to graduation? Only time will tell.

And finally, pay close attention to the Horizon League, where the balance of power may actually be shifting after all these years. Butler lost five crucial players that won 59 games in the last two seasons. How players like Zach Hahn and Grant Liendecker can fill in for the likes of AJ Graves and Pete Campbell will be crucial for the Bulldogs. And while Matt Howard, as just a sophomore, is one of the league's best- it may be time for the Bulldogs to take a backseat during the season, though my money is still on them come tournament time. Cleveland State should run away in the regular season because of the combo of J'Nathan Bullock and Cedric Jackson. The duo may be one of the best on this level and combined for 28.7 points and 11.5 rebounds last year. The Vikings return two other starters as well. Also in the Horizon, look for Wisconsin-Green Bay and Illinois-Chicago to post longtime highs in wins.

Skipping to the individual side of things, there are a great deal of explosive Mid-Major players that could have an impact year. Osiris Eldridge at Illinois State of the Missouri Valley is one of the most overlooked talents at this level of Division 1. He averaged almost 16 points per game last season and is the top returning offensive threat in the conference. I'll be interested to see how a couple of former Indiana Hoosiers do in new homes as Joey Shaw is at Nevada and Ben Allen is at St. Mary's. The Aussie Allen could be a major catalyst for St. Mary's contention is the ever-more interesting West Coast Conference race. And of course, you have to pay attention to the guys that are on teams that won't really contend hard but still could be future NBA draftees. The previously mentioned Vaden is going to be one of the best players in Conference USA in trying to help UAB stay strong. It's a shame we won't get to see him alongside other former Hoosier Armon Bassett, who sits out Vaden's senior year as a transfer. Also, Wright State won't really be a factor in the Horizon League when it comes down the stretch, but Vaughn Duggins proved late last year that he can be clutch and I am sure he will just continue that trend. Want one of the nation's most explosive guard match ups? Slide over to the Summit League and check out North Dakota State's Ben Woodside against Oakland's Jonathan Jones.

Oh, did I mention a guy by the name of Stephen Curry? You know him, right? The darling of the 2008 NCAA Tournament. His Davidson Wildcats will storm through the Southern Conference (again), but Curry will be one of the very best players in college basketball this year. His defense is getting more keen by the game and his shooting touch is almost picture perfect. Now hopefully, Davidson's new point guard will be just as good at getting him the ball in the right place at the right time as the PG who graduated in the Spring.

ALL-MID MAJOR CONFERENCE PLAYERS TO WATCH
Matt Howard (Butler) - Player of the Year
Jonathan Jones (Oakland)
Robert Dozier (Memphis)
Stephen Curry (Davidson)
Robert Vaden (UAB)
Osiris Eldridge (Illinois State)

OTHER MID-MAJOR PLAYERS TO WATCH
Tyreke Evans (Memphis)
Vaughn Duggins (Wright State)
J'Nathan Bullock (Cleveland State)
Cedric Jackson (Cleveland State)
David Kool (Western Michigan)
Jonathan Cox (Drake)
Lee Cummard (BYU)
Joey Shaw (Nevada)
Jeremy Pargo (Gonzaga)
Ben Allen (St. Mary's)
Gyno Pomare (San Diego)
Ben Woodside (North Dakota State)

IAD CONFERENCE CHAMPION PREDICTIONS (if different than regular season winner, automatic bid recipient will follow in bold)
Big West: UC-Santa Barbara - Cal State Northridge (NCAA Bid)
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Cleveland State - Butler (NCAA Bid)
Mid-American (MAC): Kent State (East), Western Michigan (West) - Kent State (NCAA Bid)
Missouri Valley: Creighton
Mountain West: BYU - UNLV (NCAA Bid)
Patriot: American
Southern: Appalachian State (North), Davidson (South) - Davidson (NCAA Bid)
Summit: Oakland
Western Athletic (WAC): Nevada
West Coast: San Diego


Wednesday, November 5, 2008

>Day One: Small Conferences

IAD 2008-2009 COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW DAY ONE
BEST OF THE SMALL CONFERENCES

Often overlooked because of their size, small conference games have become equally interesting in recent years as some of the big time college games. The reality is, that even if you are a big time star at your high school or in your city, that once college rolls around, it is a place like Texas A&M-Corpus Christi or Gardner Webb that you are more likely to end up at.

But, yet you can still flourish here. There are still conference titles, All-Conference teams and that looming automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament come March.

Just look at the Bruins of Belmont out of the Atlantic Sun conference. The competition in this conference is always interesting with that "any given team on any given day" feel. Belmont has been the catalyst of power in this conference and small conferences across the nation, earning three straight automatic NCAA tournament bids leading into this season. Only five other teams can claim that honor. The interest in the conference comes from the many other catalysts working into the overall equation. While Belmont shines, Jacksonville is on it's way up (winning 18 games last year after a one win season in 2004-2005) and Campbell boasts a mediocre team but the league's top returning scorer in Jonathan Rodriguez (20.9 ppg). Only seven teams are eligible for the conference title after Gardner Webb bolted for the Big South, but the four that aren't eligible yet (Kennesaw State, Florida Gulf Coast, South Carolina Upstate and North Florida) will all be looking to cause a ruckus among the major players.

The Southland will be another interesting conference to watch. In a world where meteoric rise is often followed by a big crash at the bottom (Texas A&M Corpus-Christi joined the league in 2006 and went to their first field of 65; then coach Ronnie Arrow left and so did their winning ways as they finished last in the Southland West Division.) Three teams could win the East Division, while three more have equal chances of taking the West. And again, never underestimate the power of a player, like with Texas State. The Bobcats are expected to finish fifth of six in the West but return 34.6 points per game in Brandon Bush, and Brent Benson and Ryan White alone.

Also worth mention is the Independent rankings where Chicago State is still floating after a 2007 exit from the Mid-Con (now Summit League) and Utah Valley State is still the toast of town even without conference affiliation. But the main reason worth mention: they sent five teams to conferences since last season (the four previously mentioned to the Atlantic Sun and Presbyterian to the Big South). In addition, eight teams joined Division 1 as provisional members via the Independents: Bryant, Houston Baptist, New Haven, North Carolina Central, North Dakota, Seattle, SIU-Edwardsville and South Dakota.

On the individual side of things, that are six players in small conferences that will have the ability to make a big impact this season.

That starts in the American East conference where Marques Blakely should repeat as conference player of the year and give Vermont a trip to the dance. Last year, he averaged 19 points and 11 rebounds per game, numbers that will probably increase for the junior. At Belmont, of the Atlantic Sun Conference, Shane Dansby almost helped offset a huge upset in last year's tournament when the Bruins battled Duke. This year, the senior forward will again be the talk of the small conference world. And don't ever forget to watch out for backdoor cuts when playing VCU. The Colonial Athletic Conference 2007 champions are looking to return to that form on the back of senior guard Eric Maynor, one of the top recruits ever made by former coach Jeff Capel (now at Oklahoma).

ALL-SMALL CONFERENCE PLAYERS TO WATCH
Marques Blakely (Vermont) - Player of the Year
Shane Dansby (Belmont)
Eric Maynor (VCU)
Grayson Flittner (Gardner Webb)
Ryan Toolson (Utah Valley State)
Lester Hudson (Tennessee-Martin)

IAD CONFERENCE CHAMPION PREDICTIONS (if different than regular season winner, automatic bid recipient will follow in bold)
American East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop - UNC Asheville (NCAA Bid)
Colonial: VCU
Ivy League: Cornell
Metro Atlantic (MAAC): Siena - Rider (NCAA Bid)
Mid-Eastern (MEAC): Morgan State
Northeast: Mount Saint Mary's
Ohio Valley: Murray State - Tennessee-Martin (NCAA Bid)
Southland: Lamar (West), Stephen F. Austin (East) - Stephen F. Austin (NCAA Bid)
Southwestern (SWAC): Alabama State
Sun Belt: South Alabama (East), North Texas (West) - South Alabama (NCAA Bid)
Independents (Best team; No Title or NCAA bid): Utah Valley State


>Men's College Basketball Preview Week

For the next week, there will be a brand new blog each day in the massive and OFFICIAL "In All Directions Men's College Basketball Preview."

The week will culminate in the preview of the IPFW Mastodons, which will appear in the IPFW Communicator on November 12.

Check back each evening for the brand new preview.