Day Four: Major Confereces Part 2

IAD 2008-2009 COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW DAY THREE
BEST OF THE MAJORS PART 2: "ACC/A-10/Pac-10/SEC"

There is a lot to be said for North Carolina, not only in the ACC, but nationally as well. More often than not, the Tar Heels are considered the favorite to walk out of 2009 with a National Title. Sadly, that can almost be said every year of Tyler Hansbrough's tenure at UNC. And no, its not just the Tar Heel hater in me that expects them to fail (ok, that's a part of it). Everyone from Chapel Hill to Durham (and even places not on Tobacco Road) need to face the real facts that UNC are not closers. Hansbrough, coach Roy Williams, Ty Lawson and company are all more pretender than champion. UNC will be good, but also beatable in the clutch.

And even as a hardcore Blue Devil fan, I can't put all my objective (ha) professional faith in Coach K and company. Honestly they have a lot to prove and their two main weaknesses are glaring. The most notable is in the post where Brian Zoubek isn't exactly a stud and Kyle Singler isn't most efficient. Hopefully Miles Plumlee will alleviate this issue some. Also, they froze in the clutch. Their tournament time wouldn't have been as good as it was had it not been for Gerald Henderson while the rest of the team folded like laundry (and that's putting it nicely).

Behind them, 3 through 10 in the ACC is pretty even with Miami on the verge of their best ACC season to date.

Xavier should run away in the Atlantic 10, even though Dayton, St. Joe's, Temple and Charlotte will all mae noise in their own ways. The Musketeers return just under 30 points in CJ Anderson, Derrick Brown and BJ Raymond alone. Tack on two 6'8'' transfers and a seven-foot freshman and this team should blow them all away.

I am not exactly sure how to feel about the Pac-10 just yet. It's obvious that UCLA will take the crown out there yet again. They lost three pretty significant players, but return three more of equal calibar. Darren Collison in the best player in the conference, hands down, and the people around him will make his job easier. Even their freshman class is stacked with five players from the Top 50. Arizona has a decent team, led by Chase Budinger, but they have had plenty of offseason perils with the retirement of coach Lute Olsen and the loss of Brandon Jennings to international play. I question the Wildcat focus at this point. USC has plenty of talent to work with even if OJ Mayo is gone, but I still think that UCLA is far and away in a league of their own. The problem with this conference is it is much more of an individual talent team outside of UCLA, much like the ACC is outside of Duke and Carolina.

In the SEC, things look pretty different everywhere you look. Each team lost someone quite important to their nucleus in the offseason and it will be interesting to see who bounces back quickest. Tennessee has a solid core still and should be the team to beat, but I think that Billy Donovan's Florida Gators will return to the promised land sooner than later. They struggled badly after the loss of Joakim Noah and company, but Nick Calathes played so strong last year and should put the Gators back at the top of at least the SEC East and back into the NCAA's.

Individually, I am loving Dionte Christmas at Temple. Even with a down year for the Atlantic 10, this guy is sensational and will be one of the nation's top individual players. Tyrese Rice fits into that same category and is explosive as an individual but saddled with an at-best sub par team in Boston College. Though I'm not liking them as much, you can go ahead and throw Chris Warren from Ole Miss and Devan Downey of South Carolina in that same 'good player, mediocre team' catagory as the season begins.

AD Vassallo at Virginia Tech and AJ Ogilvy at Vanderbilt will be make or break players for their schools. Ogilvy, just a sophomore, will be a First Team player in the SEC and may even contend for conference player of the year honors. Also, watch Taj Gibson at USC to see if he can pick up the slack of the departed OJ Mayo. The pressure is on Gibson to lead a still talented Trojan team that also has a lot of new faces. Also under coach Tim Floyd, keep an eye out for Romeo Miller (son of rapper/ex-short term NBA player Percy "Master P" Miller). I don't expect him to do much at all, but it will still be interesting to watch him on the court.

ALL-MAJOR (ACC, A-10, PAC-10, SEC) CONFERENCE PLAYERS TO WATCH
Tyler Hansbrough (North Carolina) - Player of the Year
Kyle Singler (Duke)
Darren Collison (UCLA)
Dionte Christmas (Temple)
James Harden (Arizona State)
AJ Ogilvy (Vanderbilt)

OTHER MAJOR (ACC, A-10, PAC-10, SEC) PLAYERS TO WATCH
Gerald Henderson (Duke)
Tyrese Rice (Boston College)
Jack McClinton (Miami)
Ty Lawson (UNC)
AD Vassallo (Virginia Tech)
Jeff Teague (Wake Forest)
Chase Budinger (Arizona)
Josh Shipp (UCLA)
Taj Gibson (USC)
Jon Brockman (Washington)
Walter Hodge (Florida)
Jai Lucas (Florida)
Patrick Patterson (Kentucky)
Marcus Thornton (LSU)
Chris Warren (Ole Miss)
Devan Downey (South Carolina)

IAD CONFERENCE CHAMPION PREDICTIONS (if different than regular season winner, automatic bid recipient will follow in bold)
ACC: Duke - North Carolina (NCAA Bid)
A-10: Xavier
PAC-10: UCLA
SEC: Tennessee (East), LSU (West) - Tenneessee (NCAA Bid)

Day Three: Major Conferences Part 1

IAD 2008-2009 COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW DAY THREE
BEST OF THE MAJORS PART 1: "The Bigs"

Part one of my look at the seven "major" conferences starts with "The Bigs" of the Big East, Big Ten and Big XII (that's twelve if you can't count roman numerals). These conferences always bring a good deal of excitement to the table, and in 2008 they even brought a national title by way of the Big XII's Kansas Jayhawks.

16 teams total to put the "big" in Big East whereas many as 10 teams could honestly find themselves dancing come March. Leading that pack is Notre Dame, who have no real household names behind Luke Harangody, but just a consistent core of players that includes four seniors and three juniors other than Harangody. Sure, they lost 12.5 ppg with the graduation of Rob Kurz, but they also add redshirt freshman Carleton Scott, who will likely shoulder half of that load while senior combo Ryan Ayers will also chip in a few more on the offensive end. Behind them is a hungry UConn Huskie team that prematurely exited the 2008 tournament in part due to an injury to AJ Price. Athlon Sports picks them to make it to the National Title game and that may be something that the Huskies have to cash in on right away with Price's forthcoming graduation and the likelihood that 7'3'' junior Hasheem Thabeet will also take his size and low-post skill pro come June.

But, where to go from behind these two? Picks 3-10, all very likely tournament candidates, will be tough to make. Louisville, Pittsburgh and Marquette are the likely choices to be on the heels of Notre Dame and UConn, but Georgetown, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia and Providence would all like to make cases for themselves as well.

It's an upperclassmen laden conference that also happens to be highlighted by lightning quick guards. I can't wait to see the super-duo of Dominic James and Jerel McNeal at Marquette. Unfortunately, the load is all theirs, along with a couple other guards with no real post threat. If you want an intriguing post threat in the Big East, look no further than New Jersey where 6'9'' JR Inman is going to do some damage for Rutgers. I'd expect the senior to improve his numbers a bit and likely average 15 and 10 in his final season.

And while the Big East flourishes, the Big 10 is kind of another story. Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State should all shine their dancing shoes, but beyond that, it's looking pretty sparse. The Boilermakers should be a runaway champion in the conference, losing just one player in transfer Scott Martin. He transferred because he was not seeing enough minutes, so chances are they won't miss him too much. Chances are even more likely that the Purdue faithful will be too busy watching Martin's ex-classmates Robbie Hummel, E'twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson run roughshod over the league. Toss in the sturdy veteran Chris Kramer and this is likely to be at least an Elite Eight team. Wisconsin will also be interesting to watch, despite losing over 20 ppg. Numbers for Marcus Landry and Trevon Hughes will go way up.

Possible the most interesting thing to watch in the Big 10 this year will be likely last place Indiana, who returns just Kyle Taber. Who, you ask? Exactly. JuCo transfer Devan Dumes, freshman late signee Malik Story and walk-on Evan White are the ones who I think will do the most damage or at least look good in trying.

Ohio State's return to the tournament will not be that easy. They didn't make it there last season for a reason, despite winning the NIT, and they lost their top three scorers. So everybody in Columbus is going to have to pick up the slack if they hope to return to the real madness of March. I'm expecting freshman BJ Mullens to have the best "non-Oden" year that anyone has had for the Buckeyes in recent memory.

Big XII = Blake Griffin. Remember that equation and come June, you will also know how to solve the NBA Draft Lottery equation (hint: 1 = Blake Griffin). Coach Jeff Capel took over a becoming inbattled program from the cheat-tastic Kelvin Sampson and has done some good things with it. His best move, getting Griffin to stay in school and lead the Sooners deep into the 2009 postseason. He'll get some help from junior Tony Crocker but Willie Warren, the freshman who led the McDonald's All-American game in scoring, will give Oklahoma the perfect outside match for Griffin's inside power. Texas will contend, but unless AJ Abrams can get some help inside (Dexter Pittman just ain't gonna do it). Baylor hadn't been to the NCAA's in 20 years before being the last choice this past Spring, but they will be back again I'm sure, however they won't bridge that big gap between them and the top two teams in the Big XII.

Behind those three, it's tough to call. Kansas returns just four players (Sherron Collins being the most experienced) from their National Champion team, but junior college transfer Mario Little will pick up more than his fair share of slack. Oklahoma State, Missouri and (kind-of) Texas Tech will all have to rely on new coaches. Meanwhile, Nebraska's off-season has been ripe with injury and big recruits bailing.

ALL-MAJOR (Big East, Big 10, Big XII) CONFERENCE PLAYERS TO WATCH
Blake Griffin (Oklahoma) - Player of the Year
AJ Abrams (Texas)
Hasheem Thabeet (UConn)
Dominic James (Marquette)
Luke Harangody (Notre Dame)
Robbie Hummel (Purdue)

OTHER MAJOR (Big East, Big 10, Big XII) PLAYERS TO WATCH
Sherron Collins (Kansas)
Mario Little (Kansas)
Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati)
AJ Price (UConn)
Jerel McNeal (Marquette)
JR Inman (Rutgers)
Scottie Reynolds (Villanova)
Raymar Morgan (Michigan State)
BJ Mullens (Ohio State)
E'Twaun Moore (Purdue)
Marcus Landry (Wisconsin)
Trevon Hughes (Wisconsin)

IAD CONFERENCE CHAMPION PREDICTIONS (if different than regular season winner, automatic bid recipient will follow in bold)
Big East: Notre Dame
Big 10: Purdue
Big XII: Oklahoma