UFC 182 Predictions

Once upon a time, I tried to predict each UFC event. I wasn't that good at keeping up and actually doing it, so here I am again years later with the goal of keeping up and predicting every event in 2015, starting this weekend's 2015 showcase event: UFC 182: Jones/Cormier.

The undercard
Alexis Dufrense vs. Marion Reneau
I know little about these two, but I know that Dufrense is diverse in her game and can catch you from all angles. Dufrense by TKO

Omari Akhmedov vs. Mats Nilsson
Stumped here. Nilsson by Decision

Evan Dunham vs. Rodrigo Damm
I really want Dunham to win, he was so close to the top of the 155-pound division once, but that seems so long ago now. Damm is a dangerous, dangerous opponent and although Dunham has slipped, this would still be a good name for Damm's resume. For Dunham, a loss likely means a trip to Bellator. Damm by TKO

Shawn Jordan vs. Jared Cannonier
Jordan has some of the heaviest hands in the division and is in a bad mood. Jordan by KO

Marcus Brimage vs. Cody Garbrandt
This one could be a show stealer (minus the main event). Garbrandt is making his UFC debut and is a vicious finisher at 5-0, all by stoppage. Brimage is a grinder who can also throw bombs. He had four straight wins before losing an acceptable loss to Conor McGregor and a sketchy one to Russell Doane. He is already back in the win column and really wants to move up the bantamweight rankings. This one ends early, ends violently. But you have to at least guess experience in one like this. Brimage by TKO

Danny Castillo vs. Paul Felder
Like Brimage/Garbrandt, this fight is free on FS1 and probably one you don't want to miss since it is free. Felder is undefeated and has finished 2/3 of his fights. Castillo can be dangerous, but is the lesser of all of the Alpha Male guys and sometimes just doesn't bring his 'A' game. That could get dangerous. Felder by TKO

Main card
Hector Lombard vs. Josh Burkman
There is a reason Burkman has not been in the UFC for a while and this will showcase it. He is a top notch guy on lower levels but he just can't withstand something that Lombard will bring at him. Lombard by KO

Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Louis Gaudinot
UFC is pushing flyweights down our throat here on the main card to make us care about someone who may someday challenge unsuccessfully for Demetrious Johnson's title. Neither will. And I still won't care. Horiguchi by Decision

Brad Tavares vs. Nate Marquardt
Tavares needs this win to do avoid something that 'Nate the Great,' has already done: become irrelevant. Tavares will never be a top contender but staying ranked has to be a goal here to get more and more high profile match ups. Marquardt is more past his prime than Tank Abbott. Tavares by Decision

Donald Cerrone vs. Myles Jury
Jury has been on a tear, but this is by far his biggest match up. Cerrone's 2014 was stellar and a win here could get him Anthony Pettis sometime in 2015, even though he is about third in line right now. If you read my last blog, you will know I think both of these guys end up with title shots this year, but I don't think Cerrone is taking Jury seriously enough heading into this one. In Cerrone's eyes, Jury isn't undefeated, but I think he's about to find out just how long ago that close decision exhibition loss to Al Iaquinta really was. Jury by TKO

UFC Light Heavyweight Title
Jon Jones (C) vs. Daniel Cormier
If you aren't excited for this, you don't have a pulse. I think this is a very even meeting in that they both do very different things very well. The difference maker here to me is that while both will fight with emotion and anger at different times and maybe the same times, I believe Cormier will be able to harness it more and Jones will get caught being too cocky and too angry. His cockiness almost got the best of him against Vitor Belfort and I think Jones has never been cockier than he will be tomorrow night. Someone is going to get caught slipping either way. Cormier by submission

Matching up the UFC versus Bellator

Earlier this week, Bleacher Report put out a story of “dream” match ups between Bellator and the UFC. Let me say two things. First of all, it was not a really deep story at all. Two, can you really have a dream match up at all with a company (Bellator) where Joey Beltran is challenging for the company’s Light Heavyweight title and there will soon be a show headlined by a Tito Ortiz/Stephan Bonnar fight?

And the biggest “dream” with Bellator fighters is seeing Eddie Alvarez against UFC lightweights and that is already coming to fruition.

But it did enough to prompt me to think, if I could make any fights with Bellator guys against UFC guys, what would they be? They many not be super fights or dream fights, but fights I would like to see none-the-less. And I will point out, with the exception of one; you will not see UFC champions on this fake card despite almost every Bellator champion being listed. Why? Because Bellator champions can’t hang with UFC Champions. Period.

THE UNDERCARD

Middleweight

Thales Leites versus Kendall Grove

I will admit, this one is a little personal due to my fandom of Kendall Grove and firm belief that he should have another shot in the UFC. Since he left the UFC, he’s been up and down just like he was in the UFC, but has also beaten a few guys currently under UFC contract (i.e. Derek Brunson and Joe Riggs). Leites is a rising fighter again in the UFC and as I see Grove as an 11-15 ranked UFC fighter if he was there (probably never better and never worse), it would be a good match up for them both.

Winner: Kendall Grove by Unanimous Decision

Welterweight

Kelvin Gastelum versus Na Shon Burrell

Burrell is coming off a nasty loss, but this is a match up that would be interesting for him. Gastelum is the Burrell opposite. He is the clean cut, quiet predator and Burrell is the loud, anti-authority type. But they would wage an epic war no matter where the fight took place.

Winner: Kelvin Gastelum by 2^nd Round Submission

Featherweight

Conor McGregor versus Bubba Jenkins

What we have yet to see is how a wrestler could slow down the unorthodox style of McGregor. If anyone could throw a wrench into McGregor’s hype train, it is a talent like Jenkins. This could possibly be the fight of the night if this card was real. Striker versus wrestler, yes. But they can both do each thing well too.

Winner: Conor McGregor by Split Decision

Featherweight

Cub Swanson versus Daniel Strauss

Bleacher Report matched Swanson up with Curran for brawl purposes, but I think that Strauss brought out the best in Curran when it comes to going wild. This is an all out slugfest…while it lasts…which won’t be long.

Winner: Daniel Strauss by 1^st Round TKO

Heavyweight

Alistair Overeem versus Bobby Lashley

Look, I get trying to build Lashley up when it comes to promotional purposes. But really, the guy isn’t that good. Throw him in there with another hulking heavyweight and see where he falls. My guess is, if it is anyone any good on the other side, he falls right in the center of the cage very early. Lashley’s best bet would come against a clearly aging and diminishing Overeem. But still, Alistair has a highly sophisticated skill set compared to the pro wrestler and would finish him brutally, even if Lashley’s wrestling prowess can help him survive the opening frame.

Winner: Alistair Overeem by 2^nd Round KO

Featherweight

Frankie Edgar versus Patricio Pitbull

Bellator’s top division is clearly with the featherweights. Sadly for them I don’t think that their champion is the best in the division. I don’t want power on power here, I want mad scrambles. Edgar and Patricio are both highly skilled at getting out of the way. Edgar is so quick on his feet and light and hard to catch up to. He also has lightning fast take downs, but Patricio is so fast, could Edgar catch him?

Winner: Frankie Edgar by Split Decision (but, we all know his luck with these, don’t we?)

THE MAIN CARD

Featherweight

Chad Mendes versus Pat Curran

Pure wrestler versus striker here. Curran is as dangerous as any featherweight that Bellator has but Mendes has only gotten better with time. This would be an intense scramble of a fight.

Winner: Chad Mendes by Unanimous Decision

Lightweight

Khabib Nurmagomedov versus Michael Chandler

Chandler is one of my favorite Bellator fighters to watch because he fights like he is Tom Hardy’s character from Warrior. He is a beast who I would never want to stand and trade with. Khabib has done so, so well but is still such a wild card on how he will match up with the true elite. Chandler, like Alvarez, would be a top 5 lightweight in the UFC, but wouldn’t be able to beat the top few guys. Question is, is Khabib really as high quality of a guy overall as his current UFC ranking suggests?

Winner: Michael Chandler by 3^rd round TKO

Welterweight

Hector Lombard versus Paul Daley

Daley is another guy who deserves another UFC shot (sorry Dana). Yeah, he made a bad decision, but you brought Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, etc., etc. Daley would be a heavy hitter throw right into the fire that is the welterweight division. And this showdown would be a slugfest the likes of Daley-Diaz.

Winner: Paul Daley by 2^nd Round TKO

Light Heavyweight

Rashad Evans versus Emanual Newton

This is virtually the same guy fighting himself. A few years back, this is a no-brainer for Evans. He was the better wrestler and the better heavy handed striker, but he has fallen off to the point of almost being Newton’s equal. Then again, Newton may think that wins over King Mo are worth more than they really are and not realize that Evans isn’t just another by the book overhyped Bellator guy.

Winner: Evans by Unanimous Decision

Welterweight

Carlos Condit versus Douglas Lima

The one fight I agree with Bellator on. Lima is a hard nose striker, I would love to see him face Nick or Nate Diaz as well. But with the flux in their weight classes and careers, Condit is the next best thing. The two would wage war and throw enough crazy stuff at each other that it would keep the two of them and all of us guessing along the way. The problem, as Bleacher Report pointed out, is that Lima just isn’t long enough (though I will point out that he has had no problem with long reach from someone like Ben Saunders, which is 6.5 inches longer than Lima).

Winner: Carlos Condit by 2^nd Round KO

THE MAIN EVENT

Bantamweight

TJ Dillashaw versus Joe Warren

That is right, a UFC champion. Why? Because this is the only match up where a Bellator guy has any relevant skill set that could counter the UFC champion in that weight class. Warren is a world class grappler and his wrestling is miles ahead of Dillashaw’s no matter how good Dillashaw’s wrestling is. But what Dillashaw has shown lately, especially against Mike Easton, Renan Barao and Joe Soto, he doesn’t need to lean on his wrestling skills. Warren would take Dillashaw down early and often. But TJ weathers storms and then knocks out the storm maker. It is what he does.

Winner: TJ Dillashaw by 5^th round TKO