So yeah, I skipped 103 and that was probably for the best considering how terrible my prognostication was for UFC's 100, 101 and 102! But, today as I am actually pretty excited that a new Gracie (Rolles) will be stepping into the UFC cage, I decided to give a brief prediction list for UFC 104 that takes place tomorrow night.
UFC Predictions (100-102): 8-25 - last card: 2-9
UFC 104 PreLims
Razak Al-Hassan def. Kyle Kingsbury
Second Round TKO
Chase Gormley def. Stefan Struve
Unanimous Decision
Jorge Rivera def. Rob Kimmons
Split Decision
Chael Sonnen def. Yushin Okami
Unanimous Decision
Spike TV Televised
Antoni Hardonk def. Pat Barry
First Round KO
Ryan Bader def. Eric Schafer
Third Round TKO
MAIN CARD
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
This has all the potential to be the fight of the night by far. Yoshida has some impressive wins and devestating losses, but can be a beast. The fact that 'Rumble' is cutting up to 50 pounds to fight Yoshida could be bad or good. If he cut right, he's going to a beastly welterweight, if he cut wrong he will be fatigued. Either way, his knockout power of highlight reel proportions is not questioned.
-Anthony Johnson by Second Round KnockOut
Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher
It is a must win for them both to not backslide at all. And as much as I like Fisher's heart and determination overall, it can't outweigh Stevenson's current drive.
-Joe 'Daddy' Stevenson by Unanimous Decision
Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer
Least interesting main card fight to be and I'd honestly rather see the Ryan Bader fight on the show. I don't think it is as close as most people are saying.
-Josh Neer by by Third Round Submssion
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
This is the ultimate test for Cain, who is on the fringe of a title fight, possibly against the winner of Lesnar/Carwin. If he wins, he has to get that shot. But he has yet to face off against someone with the skill level of Rothwell, who is pretty technical in heavyweight standards. If they stand and slug, this is Velasquez' match, but Rothwell was undefeated in the IFL for a reason and thats because he will not play to his opponents' strengths. That said, I like to go against the grain of most other predictors and honestly, Cain has that cocky swagger for a reason.
-Cain Velasquez by First Round KO
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
(UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout)
I was dead wrong about Lyoto Machida when he found Rashad Evans. My thoughts then were if it goes the distance, Machida wins and if it ends early it will be by KO and it's the heavy handed Evans. So imagine my surprise when Machida knocked Rashad out. So how will the fight with Shogun go? If it goes the distance...it's Machida's fight and if not, Rua will look to upset. Why stick with this same formula I was wrong with before? Rua hasn't had to go deep lately and I don't know if he can sustain for five full rounds. His best bet to win the title is to go hard early to look and catch Lyoto. Easier said that done, right? Well if there is a current Light Heavyweight that can do it, it's not Rashad Evans, it's not Forrest Griffin, it's not....Rampage Jackson....it IS Shogun Rua. Conventional wisdom aside:
-Mauricio Shogun Rua by 3rd Round TKO to become the NEW UFC LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION
