UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Bigfoot Predictions

Prediction watch
UFC Fight Night Henderson vs. Thatch:4-2
2015 Overall: 27-24
2015 Title fights: 0-1

Now onto the next event! Due to, mostly, a lack of interest, I will only be predicting the main card fights.

The Main Card
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sean Strickland
Santiago was stellar on his season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil before being pulled from the finale with an injury. While it kept him from a TUF title, he has shown that even the best on that show were probably just mediocre. His last outing was stellar and he looks like a physical beasts, but a decision loss to Ryan LaFlare in his debut was a sad sight. Stickland's win over Luke Barnatt, even controversial was a better win that Santiago's lone UFC win. Plus, nobody has ever beat Strickland with only four fights ever going to decision. As much as Santiago looks stronger physically, I think Strickland keeps finishing. Strickland by TKO

Iuri Alcantara vs. Frankie Saenz
This should be a no brainer. Alcantara has been fighting in the octagon for much longer and has faced some really good competition. His last loss came to Urijah Faber and he was moderately competitive in a fight he had no chance of winning. He rallied off three wins in 2014 against some decent mid-level fighters in the division. Alcantara by Submission

Rustam Khabilov vs. Adriano Martins
Khabilov was exposed as probably not a top-tier 155-pound fighter in his loss to Benson Henderson, but that doesn't mean he isn't a higher tier guy than Martins. Martins' best win is over Daron Cruickshank and he was decimated by Donald Cerrone. Meanwhile, Khabilov is still very, very good and has only lost twice ever. He beat up on Jorge Masvidal in a Fight of the Night and once suplexed Vinc Pichel to sleep. Easy win here. Khabilov by TKO

Cezar Ferreira vs. Sam Alvey
Nobody knows where either of these two guys fit into the middleweight division. Cezar can be a beast, but looked bad in a loss to CB Dollaway and just ok in a win over Andrew Craig. Still he sits at 4-1 in the UFC and a win here could get him a top 15 opponent. Alvey was brought back to the UFC after being part of the embarrassing TUF: Nelson vs. Carwin season. He looked great against Dylan Andrews, but was that a fluke? Ferreira by TKO

Edson Barboza vs. Michael Johnson
In my opinion, the best fight on the card. Barboza can be vicious (just Google his head kick demolition of Terry Etim in 2012) and has withstood every UFC test but two (losses to Jamie Varner and Cerrone). His biggest problem is lack of consistency. He mutilated Evan Dunham last July but then ho-hummed through a decision win against Bobby Green in November. If he slacks here, Michael Johnson could put him on the wrong end of another highlight reel knockout. Johnson seems to have found his stride after a back and forth start in his UFC career, but has not fought in a year due to some domestic issues. But before that break, he pounded former title contender Melvin Guillard in a decision win, knocked out the iron-chined Gleison Tibau and went to an absolute amazing war with Joe Lauzon, picking up the decision. This is a big test for Johnson (ranked 12th) against the sixth ranked Barboza. A win for Barboza could get him close to a title shot, but a win for Johnson would finally get him inside the top 10 and a chance to angle for a big fight next. Johnson by TKO

Frank Mir vs. Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva
Let us all go to a magical land where we care about this bout in 2015. I like Frank Mir, I really do. But he shouldn't have a job and Silva. Other than upsets (see "Punchers chance") over Alistair Overeem and Travis Browne, he has not won since February 2011 when he used that same lucky heavy hand to stop Fedor Emeliankenko, which was kind of a right of passage in Fedor's career in 2011. Silva's last actual impressive fight that was a win was 2010 against Mike Kyle. It has almost been as long for Mir who snapped Big Nog's arm in 2011 before being destroyed in succession by Junior Dos Santos, Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett and kind-of Alistair Overeem. This is likely a loser-leaves-town fight where both guys could be singing their career swan songs. They should be anyway. Mir by Submission

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. Thatch Predictions

Prediction watch
UFC 183: 7-4
2015 Overall: 23-22
2015 Title fights: 0-1

Now onto the next event! Due to, mostly, a lack of interest, I will only be predicting the main card fights.

Main Card
Ray Borg vs. Chris Kelades
Borg is one of those guys who you really hope gets his act together. He is 1-1 in the octagon and looked great in his last outing after looking terrible in his first. Outside of that loss inside the UFC, he has never lost. He has the potential to be a contender at 125 pounds, in a division that dramatically needs a new contender. Kelades is not on Borg's level and really looks like he is being fed to Borg here so that the UFC can start trying to build him in the flyweight division. Borg by TKO

Michael Prazeres vs. Kevin Lee
Both guys hold one loss in their careers and both guys beat Jesse Ronson inside the octagon. What else do we know. Not really much. Lee was exposed in the cage with Al Iaquinta, but managed to make it to a decision, which not many people have done against the Serra-Longo fighter. It is an intriguing fight in the fact that they are both on the same low level in a stacked 155-pound division. No chance this fight gets finished. Lee by decision

Dan Kelly vs. Patrick Walsh
Kelly comes in undefeated (not counting an exhibition loss on The Ultimate Fighter: Nations) but Walsh is a legit striker, who is very dangerous on the ground as well. That said, Kelly is better on the ground and will likely look to take the fight there. Walsh by decision

Neil Magny vs. Kiichi Kunimoto
Magny stormed through 2014 with a record 5 wins in the year and will be rewarded with a guy who hasn't lost since 2012. I don't pretend to know much about Kunimoto, but I do know that Magny is cerebral, one of the many reasons he has survived in the UFC after a terrible season of The Ultimate Fighter: Carwin vs. Nelson, where neither the winner or the runner up is still employed by the UFC. Magny keeps rolling here for his sixth straight and should get a top 15 fighter next. Magny by decision

Max Holloway vs. Cole Miller
I am still not on any Holloway hype train that there may be. He has not beat anyone of any real depth and he has lost against tougher, veteran and game opponents like Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor and Dennis Bermudez. I for one, also question his decision win over Leonard Garcia. Miller is slick and even though he doesn't have the stand up game that Holloway has, he is so much longer with a five inch reach advantage. Miller by submission

Benson Henderson vs. Brandon Thatch
Let's dispense with all the pleasantries. Brandon Thatch is not on Benson Henderson's level. Not at 170. Not at 155. Not if they fought at 205. Thatch hasn't lost since 2008 in Strikeforce, while Henderson lost a couple of weeks ago. But exactly who has Thatch beat? An aged Paulo Thiago? Justin Edwards? Thatch got the short end of the stick here and the UFC is going to kill off another rising fighter in a weight class because they had nothing better to back up this event with. Bendo was brought in to save some face value but it will kill Thatch's value, what little he has. Henderson by TKO

UFC Fight Night: McGregor v. Siver Predictions

Prediction Watch
UFC 182: 5-6
2015 Overall: 5-6
2015 Title Matches: 0-1

Now on to the next event!

The undercard
Matt Van Buren vs. Sean O'Connell
Van Buren really is one of those Luke Cummo-esque silent assassins from The Ultimate Fighter. This is a really tight matchup that is fairly evenly matched overall. In the end, I think that reach will be the advantage in a fight that will like stay standing. Van Buren by decision

Tateki Matsuda vs. Joby Sanchez
Sanchez has finished every fight he has won, with a 6-1 record but I think this really is a tossup fight. Matsuda by decision

Charles Rosa vs. Sean Soriano
Soriano has some great experience but Rosa is a finisher with a high submission rate. Rosa is very slick anywhere this fight takes place, even off his back. Rosa by submission

Johnny Case vs. Frankie Perez
Perez is making his UFC debut and Case has a growing fan base of those in the industry in the know. The kid has 23 fights at 25 years old and his experience on all levels. His guillotine in his UFC debut was a thing of beauty and I think he has a future, though probably not at his current weight. Case by TKO

Patrick Holohan vs. Shane Howell
Howell is a strong underdog and I don't care about anything in this fight but the crowd. I am still not sold on Holohan as a prospect with longevity, but this night...in Boston...he rules this one. Holohan by TKO

Zhang Lipeng vs. Chris Wade
Where does this fight go? My guess is that Lipeng does not have the ability to keep it off the ground and he gets in trouble often. Not that I think Wade is a finisher. Wade by decision

John Howard vs. Lorenz Larkin
Can I please get a slugfest? Popular opinion here is that this goes to a decision but I think that is because too many prognosticators won't commit. This one could, should and hopefully will get nasty and violent. However, Howard has me doubting that because of his high-five fest with Uriah Hall that could have been awesome. My guess is he won't let that happen twice and Larkin will also have to throw bombs. Someone is going night-night. Howard by KO

Cathal Pendred vs. Sean Spencer
The UFC so badly wants Pendred to be a power at 170 that can match McGregor's draw. He isn't and he won't be. But they gave him a quite favorable matchup here. Pendred, like all the Irish, will feed off the Boston crowd. He desperately needs an impressive performance and probably a finish here to keep fans interested in the hype. Pendred by decision 

Main card
Norman Parke vs. Gleison Tibau
This is a huge opportunity for Parke and also to show that the entire TUF: The Smashes season was not a waste. He's coming in as the underdog because Tibau has loads and loads of experience in 49 pro fights and still has massively heavy hands. This one too could be a grind them out type of war and could see both men in loads of trouble. While I don't doubt Tibau's strength, I have always been a fan of Parke's versatility. Parke by decision 

Uriah Hall vs. Ron Stallings
Who is Ron Stallings? Does it matter. Hall knows that he has to stop caring about people again. If he can do that mentally, then he is a head smashing machine with cringe inducing power. Hall by KO

Benson Henderson vs. Donald Cerrone
As much as I looked forward to the Alvarez fight, this one should be great too. UFC card #2 for 2015 and Cerrone fight #2 of 2015. He is on the way up, Henderson is on the way down. Bendo needs to win this fight to stay relevant at the top of this division or if he does actually move up to Welterweight. Unfortunately for Cerrone, a win here still probably leaves him a win away from a title shot because of the log jam at 155. I think Bendo gets desperate and Bendo desperate is Bendo reckless. Plus, I made a crucial mistake in not picking 'Cowboy" a couple of weeks ago against Myles Jury. Cerrone by TKO

Conor McGregor vs. Dennis Siver
We know what this. Dennis Siver isn't supposed to win. He can't win, can he? He has been in the UFC since 2007 when McGregor was 19 and had not had a pro fight. In that time, Siver has only lost to six guys and a collection that includes Cub Swanson, Donald Cerrone, Ross Pearson, Melvin Guillard and Gray Maynard isn't so bad. But those names also show that Siver wilts under the pressure. McGregor hasn't lost since 2010 and regardless of who is better here, he would ride the hype, the momentum and the Boston crowd into the night. Lucky for him, he is just better at this stage of his career. Siver is a hulking fighter at any weight, especially 145, but he doesn't have the speed, stamina or youth to keep up with McGregor. Expect Siver to land something, to remind McGregor he is in a fight and not a side show. But that strike won't be significant enough, not even by a little bit. McGregor is just too good for Dennis Siver with a Jose Aldo title shot looming. McGregor by TKO