With all of the big fights on the horizon this year, the championship situations (pending health) could get very interesting. So here are my, probably bold predictions about who ends 2015 holding UFC gold.
HEAVYWEIGHT - Cain Velasquez
This is one of the easier ones to predict. Cain will clash with Fabricio Werdum soon to get rid of that fake, pops up to often, interim belt. Werdum is a solid heavyweight but I don't think he can compete with the champ. Honestly, give Mark Hunt more time to train and I think he takes Werdum in that interim bout. I think the massive weight loss hurt Hunt more than Werdum could have. I only see Cain fighting twice in 2015 and those will be wins over Werdum and one more decisive victory over Junior Dos Santos, which could be JDS' final shot at gold. It also clears the way for new challengers for Velasquez in 2016, which will include Stipe Miocic, Mark Hunt, Andrei Arlovski and.....see below.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT - Alexander Gustafsson
Four. That is how many times the UFC Light Heavyweight title will be defended in 2015. The first comes tomorrow where I think Daniel Cormier will outclass Jon Jones and take the title from him. After that, Bones will clearly get an immediate rematch and as much as I do not like him, he clearly will deserve one and I think he takes the title back in that rematch, which leaves a clear cut need for a trilogy bout, but not so fast. Gustafsson will take out Anthony Johnson and while Cormier/Jones II pushes him back out of a shot, he will take on and defeat Rashad Evans and Dana White won't be able to ignore the Swede anymore. Gustafsson will get Jones and beat him by decision to take the title. This will send Jones to the heavyweight division for a clash with Cain Velasquez in 2016. Cormier will opt to heal up for the rest of 2015 while Gustafsson beats Ryan Bader for this final defense of the year.
MIDDLEWEIGHT - Anderson Silva
This contradicts my hope for the Silva/Diaz fight this month as I really want Diaz to win and I may even pick him to win before that weekend. But for arguments sake, I really have to go with Silva winning that fight because of his size and experience at 185 pounds. After the win over Diaz, it is silly to make any fight other than Weidman/Silva III after Chris soundly puts away Vitor Belfort. There are plenty of other challengers in the division, but none that stand out. That said, I think Silva KO's Weidman in a rematch, even if it is by fluky strike. Weidman has also been too lucky to avoid the injury bug, so I think after a loss to Silva he will find himself on the shelf for the rest of 2015, having to wait out a title rematch until 2016. Silva will defend the belt one more time to close the year by flattening Jacare Souza. Weidman will be next in line for 2016, followed by Luke Rockhold.
WELTERWEIGHT - Kelvin Gastelum
This was the hardest choice to make in this entire field with a pretty even array of fighters in the division. And so, I am going to go big here. Robbie Lawler will decisively end his feud with Johny Hendricks by knocking him out in the trilogy finale. Shortly after that, the attention of the division will switch to the news that Georges St. Pierre will be making his return to the UFC, but Dana White, still unhappy with GSP, will make him fight someone else first and in turn, Lawler will then successfully defend the title against GSP mate Rory MacDonald. GSP's will want to time his return out right and a warm up fight against Matt Brown won't happen until October, which will keep the longtime division kingpin from a shot at the belt in 2015 even after he defeats Brown. In the meantime, 2015 will see a still unlikely contender feast on Tyron Woodley and Hector Lombard and the year will end is the most unlikely fashion as Kelvin Gastelum will secure an out-of-nowhere rear naked choke that force Robbie Lawler to tap out in the second round and relinquish his title around the holidays.
LIGHTWEIGHT - Anthony Pettis
No lightweight in the world is going to touch Anthony Pettis and I will go even farther and say he will stay healthy in 2015 and go on to defend his title five times to really put him on top of the conversation as the best 155 pounder the UFC has ever seen. I think Rafael Dos Anjos will get the first shot and will get TKO'd in the second round because his defense is just not loose enough to handle the unorthodox striking of Showtime. Next up will be Khabib Nurmagomedov and it will be Showtime's toughest challenge all year. The fight will go five rounds and Showtime will win 48-47, 48-47 and 49-46 after Khabib abandons his takedown plans when Pettis throws on a couple of tight, but barely escapable submissions. Defense three will be against the undefeated Myles Jury who will be coming off a win over Benson Henderson. Pettis stops Jury in this one. The fourth defense will be the returning TJ Grant and and the rust will be apparent for Grant. The fifth defense could be a toss up. For ratings sake, I am saying it is a rematch with Donald Cerrone that will end the same as the first one, But my heart wants this fifth defense to be against Michael Johnson, who could shoot up the 155-rankings this year with some big wins. It all sets up 2016's super fight for Pettis against Jose Aldo.
FEATHERWEIGHT - Frankie Edgar
Why Frankie? Because Jose Aldo leaves the division after one more fight. It is clear what is next for Aldo: Conor McGregor, who will demolish Denis Siver to get a title shot, but will get caught with something spinning in the fifth round of an absolute war with Aldo. McGregor will break his jaw in the loss and sit out almost all, if not all of 2015 to recover, but don't worry he will have UFC gold eventually. In the mean time, the UFC needs a new featherweight champion after Aldo declare the division cleared out and heads to the lightweight division (though an injury will scrap him from a December meeting with Pettis, hence setting up Cerrone for the title shot). The UFC turns to Frankie Edgar/Chad Mendes to crown a new champ and Edgar comes across the victor on the close scorecards. He'll defend the belt one more time to close out 2015 by TKO'ing Ricardo Lamas and setting up a showdown with the returning McGregor in 2016.
BANTAMWEIGHT - TJ Dillashaw
Get used to the look of a little kid on Christmas. Because that is exactly what TJ looks like as he grins at his UFC title belt. But trust me, he's not nice little innocent kid and Dillashaw is going to get vicious this year. He will start the year by finishing an overzealous Renan Barao in the second or third round, then go on to defeat Raphael Assuncao pretty clearly in their long awaited (to Raphael anyway) rematch. With Dominick Cruz still on the shelf for a while longer, John Dodson will make the jump up to 135 for a rematch of their Ultimate Fighter finals fight, but this time Dillashaw is quicker to the draw and gets the TKO in the fifth round. The win will be a great benchmark for Dillashaw's year as a top tier pound for pound fighter and again set up a battle with Alpha Male hater Cruz for 2016. And about Urijah Faber? The Alpha Male leader will leave the 135 pound division and head back up to featherweight to avoid having to fight Dillashaw.
FLYWEIGHT - Demetrious Johnson
A year of rematches awaits Mighty Mouse, who has already cleared out this division. First up will be John Dodson, who has given Johnson his best fight so far at 125 but this one ends the same: a lot of great moments for Dodson, but not enough as Johnson retains by non-controversial decision. He will follow it up by pushing back Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez in back to back fights that don't make the challengers look like they have anything at all for the 125 pound kingpin. Those fights will finish out the year for Johnson, who will head back up to 135 sometime in 2016 after clearing out the division for a second time with one or two more early defenses in 2016. So there will eventually be a second ever UFC Flyweight champion, I just don't see it happening this year.
WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT - Ronda Rousey
Because honestly, who is going to beat her? Dana White sees the draw in the Cyborg fight and I think eventually money talks and Rousey, who isn't the crazy hot head that Santos and Ortiz are, will move up and either have a catchweight fight or the UFC will add a Featherweight Women's Title just so Rousey/Cyborg can happen and then there can be a second ever UFC Bantamweight Women's Champ. But like with the men's 125-pound title, 2015 isn't that year. Instead, Rousey will take out Cat Zingano in the second round via armbar after isolating Cat's punching power. Rousey will then TKO Bethe Correia, who really doesn't deserve a title shot to begin with. Even though she will want a break to film a movie, I can see the UFC talking Rousey into one more defense for the year and if that happens, it will be a big money fight with Holly Holm.
WOMEN'S STRAW WEIGHT - Rose Namajunas
This title will see three champions in 2015 as the first champion, Carla Esparza will lose the title in her first ever defense to Jonna Jedrzejczyk, who will then go on to successfully defend against Tecia Torres in a wild affair. Esparza will win the belt back, but turn around to lose it to Namajunas almost exactly one year to the date of their first meeting. I expect Namajunas to tackle Jessica Penne and Tecia Torres on her road to another shot and her confidence and striking game will be at all time high so she can take advantage of her second shot at UFC gold. This is an interesting division and I can see the title bouncing around a lot, ala the Light Heavyweight title before Jon Jones first won it from Shogun Rua.
WHAT IT ALL MEANS FOR 2016:
Cain Velasquez vs. Jon Jones
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Daniel Cormier
Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman IV
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Georges St. Pierre
Anthony Pettis vs. Jose Also
Frankie Edgar vs. Conor McGregor
TJ Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz
Rondo Rousey vs. Cyborg Santos
Rose Namajunas vs. Joanna Calderwood
