UFC 182 Predictions

Once upon a time, I tried to predict each UFC event. I wasn't that good at keeping up and actually doing it, so here I am again years later with the goal of keeping up and predicting every event in 2015, starting this weekend's 2015 showcase event: UFC 182: Jones/Cormier.

The undercard
Alexis Dufrense vs. Marion Reneau
I know little about these two, but I know that Dufrense is diverse in her game and can catch you from all angles. Dufrense by TKO

Omari Akhmedov vs. Mats Nilsson
Stumped here. Nilsson by Decision

Evan Dunham vs. Rodrigo Damm
I really want Dunham to win, he was so close to the top of the 155-pound division once, but that seems so long ago now. Damm is a dangerous, dangerous opponent and although Dunham has slipped, this would still be a good name for Damm's resume. For Dunham, a loss likely means a trip to Bellator. Damm by TKO

Shawn Jordan vs. Jared Cannonier
Jordan has some of the heaviest hands in the division and is in a bad mood. Jordan by KO

Marcus Brimage vs. Cody Garbrandt
This one could be a show stealer (minus the main event). Garbrandt is making his UFC debut and is a vicious finisher at 5-0, all by stoppage. Brimage is a grinder who can also throw bombs. He had four straight wins before losing an acceptable loss to Conor McGregor and a sketchy one to Russell Doane. He is already back in the win column and really wants to move up the bantamweight rankings. This one ends early, ends violently. But you have to at least guess experience in one like this. Brimage by TKO

Danny Castillo vs. Paul Felder
Like Brimage/Garbrandt, this fight is free on FS1 and probably one you don't want to miss since it is free. Felder is undefeated and has finished 2/3 of his fights. Castillo can be dangerous, but is the lesser of all of the Alpha Male guys and sometimes just doesn't bring his 'A' game. That could get dangerous. Felder by TKO

Main card
Hector Lombard vs. Josh Burkman
There is a reason Burkman has not been in the UFC for a while and this will showcase it. He is a top notch guy on lower levels but he just can't withstand something that Lombard will bring at him. Lombard by KO

Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Louis Gaudinot
UFC is pushing flyweights down our throat here on the main card to make us care about someone who may someday challenge unsuccessfully for Demetrious Johnson's title. Neither will. And I still won't care. Horiguchi by Decision

Brad Tavares vs. Nate Marquardt
Tavares needs this win to do avoid something that 'Nate the Great,' has already done: become irrelevant. Tavares will never be a top contender but staying ranked has to be a goal here to get more and more high profile match ups. Marquardt is more past his prime than Tank Abbott. Tavares by Decision

Donald Cerrone vs. Myles Jury
Jury has been on a tear, but this is by far his biggest match up. Cerrone's 2014 was stellar and a win here could get him Anthony Pettis sometime in 2015, even though he is about third in line right now. If you read my last blog, you will know I think both of these guys end up with title shots this year, but I don't think Cerrone is taking Jury seriously enough heading into this one. In Cerrone's eyes, Jury isn't undefeated, but I think he's about to find out just how long ago that close decision exhibition loss to Al Iaquinta really was. Jury by TKO

UFC Light Heavyweight Title
Jon Jones (C) vs. Daniel Cormier
If you aren't excited for this, you don't have a pulse. I think this is a very even meeting in that they both do very different things very well. The difference maker here to me is that while both will fight with emotion and anger at different times and maybe the same times, I believe Cormier will be able to harness it more and Jones will get caught being too cocky and too angry. His cockiness almost got the best of him against Vitor Belfort and I think Jones has never been cockier than he will be tomorrow night. Someone is going to get caught slipping either way. Cormier by submission

The next title fights the UFC should make

It has become a common theme on MMA websites that I frequent to try and play matchmaker. As if Joe Silva or Sean Shelby have it easy. And while those are all good and such, I found myself reading one today and having my own strong feelings on some fights that need to be made for UFC gold.

And no, I don't give a single care about the UFC's rankings when determining this, simply what would be best for business, what would draw interest based slightly on said ratings.

Women's Bantamweight
Who cares? And no that has nothing to do with the gender of the division. Nobody currently in the UFC is going to stop Ronda Rousey. Her next fight is already set and it will end, in my expert opinion, via arm bar. Like all of them. The only draw for a fight she really could have outside of Miesha Tate (and we all knew how that would end), is Cyborg. And that fight isn't happening. The weight classes are different, Dana White isn't risking a Ronda loss and as long as Cyborg has Tito Ortiz representing her, she won't sniff the UFC. What makes this even tougher? The only other fight I could care about is Julianna Pena. Being Tate's right hand woman, her and Rousey's displeasure for each other and her skill level made Pena a clear choice to challenge Ronda had she not torn her entire leg off it's bone (theoretically) and won her next fight.
Next Fight: Ronda Rousey vs. Cat Zingano

Flyweight
I have no...and I mean no desire to see Demetrious Johnson fight a "super fight" in a division he was just part of not too long ago. He was better than almost everyone there, but not good enough to take the title from a guy who Renan Barao would "dominate" (see the pun?). The tough part for Mighty Mouse is that it doesn't take much to clear out this division. The top three contenders have fallen to Johnson and while I think another Dodson fight would be entertaining, I don't see it going any differently. So this is where I split off and say that someone needs to drop down from 135 to face him and the most logical person is someone I see to be between the biggest rock and hard place at said weight.
Next Fight: Demetrious Johnson vs. TJ Dillashaw

Men's Bantamweight
The way last night's fight ended leads to only one conclusion: give the guy ONE MORE SHOT. No one is clamoring to see Raphael Assuncao fight for the title. It would be worse than Ricardo Lamas' featherweight fight last night. And the dude barely (and by barely, I mean not really) beat Dillashaw. McDonald has lost 2 straight, Cruz is still out, Barao just beat Wineland. I see no interest in this division other than rematching what we barely saw last night (thanks Herb Dean).
Next Fight: Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber 3

Featherweight
So the kingpin has left for 155-ier pastures. Good. Now the next two guys in line without a fight booked can fight for the title right? Think about it, the next featherweight champion of the world is the winner of Chad Mendes and Cub Swanson! Not so fast....I mean, Mendes is ok and I have really grown to like Cub Swanson. But as champion, neither one of them has much more drawing power than stale grilled cheese. We have enough vanilla champions and contenders (see Weidman, Chris and Hendricks, Johny) that we don't need Mendes and I don't think Swanson is championship caliber or would win that fight. There is only one featherweight fight that I am excited about currently, it is already booked (date TBD), so let's make it for the crown. Why not? It may not be the right thing to do, but it will be the most exciting. And hell, at least one of them is ranked high in the division. Time to fill Aldo's impending vacancy.
Next Fight: Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn 3

Lightweight
We already know what the next fight is and it is by far the right one. I lend no credence to any thought that says we need Anthony Pettis/Benson Henderson 3....TJ Grant or Josh Thomson would just make me not care...and while Gilbert Melendez getting a shot is interesting (after all, when WEC and Strikeforce were there, one could make an argument that they had the best lightweights in Pettis and Gil), I think anyone who shays away from Pettis/Aldo is crazy. What is also crazy is that we are more than likely about to see that fight for Pettis' 155-pound title a year after we were supposed to see it for Aldo's 145-pound crown. And honestly, I'd like to see the winner be a duel champion. If Aldo wins, don't make his drop the belt at 145 or if Pettis wins, let him drop down to fight the winner of the vacancy. OR!!!! How about old school WWF title vs. title? Winner take all?
Next Fight: Anthony Pettis vs. Jose Aldo

Welterweight
Here is another division where we already know the next fight, again to fill a vacancy. So I again am just going to skip ahead and pretend that I know that Johny Hendricks is going to win the title. I don't think Dana White dares to not let him. Unless Robbie Lawler knocks him clean out cold, there is no way that Lawler leaves their contest with the belt. And even if he does, there is only one top contender because the rest of the division is just kind of eh. And either way, Hendricks or Lawler get beat down by the top contender in my mind.
Next Fight: Johny Hendricks vs. Carlos Condit

Middleweight
Where to begin. I think Chris Weidman is boring. I think he beat Anderson Silva by doing the thing we all knew would beat Anderson Silva, he caught him not being serious. Demian Maia could have beat Anderson Silva if he wasn't acting dumber. The only other way, which Weidman could also have easily done, is to wrestle Anderson Silva. Chael Sonnen could have beat Anderson Silva if he was paying attention at the end of their fight. And in the second fight, well yeah...fluke. Behind him, I care so little to see Vitor Belfort win the title, but at least he would be exciting. Behind them, nobody cares and Ronaldo Souza, Lyoto Machida shouldn't be ranked so high in a division he's never fought in. So if you are going to make Souza/Machida, then you'd have an ok contender. But you aren't. Souza is facing Francois Carmont, for some reason. And Machida is facing the ninth ranked 205-pounder because why not. So call it homer, call it confusion on the UFC's middleweight booking, but give the Michael Bisping/Tim Kennedy winner the next shot. Because at least their fight makes sense.
Next Fight: Vitor Belfort vs. Michael Bisping 2

Light Heavyweight
This is a stupid question.
Next Fight: Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson 2

Heavyweight
This is a moot point for a while until the champion is healthy again. And even then, the UFC is currently in a funk that it will continue to be in for a while. That funk: Junior Dos Santos is better than everyone in the division not named Cain Velasquez. So what do you do with that. There are no heavyweight fights or contenders to clamor for. So we might as well get on the hype train.
Next Fight: Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne

UFC on Versus 2 Quick Picks

UFC Predictions (100-102, 104-111, 113-114, UFC on VERSUS 1) 75-73-1 - last card: 6-5

PRELIMS
Paul Kelly def. Jacob Volkmann
Matthew Riddle def. Demarques Johnson
Igor Pokrajac def. James Irvin
Brian Stann def. Mike Massenzio
Rob Kimmons def. Steve Steinbeiss
Charles Oliveira def. Darren Elkins

MAIN CARD
Tyson Griffin def. Takanori Gomi
Jake Ellenberger def. John Howard
Mark Munoz def. Yushin Okami
Jon Jones def. Vladimir Matyushenko

UFC on Versus Quick Picks

UFC Predictions (100-102, 104-110) 51-54-1 - last card: 6-3

Eric Schafer def. Jason Brilz

Mike Pierce def. Julio Paulino

Brendan Schaub def. Chase Gormley

John Howard def. Daniel Roberts

Duane Ludwig def. Darren Elkins

Eliot Marshall def. Vladimir Matyushenko

Clay Guida def. Shannon Gugerty

James Irvin def. Alessio Sakara

Cheick Kongo def. Paul Buentello

Junior Dos Santos def. Gabriel Gonzaga

Jon Jones def. Brandon Vera