UFC 184 Predictions

Prediction watch
UFC Fight Night Mir vs. Bigfoot: 2-4
2015 Overall: 29-28
2015 Title fights: 0-1

Now on to the next card!

Tony Ferguson vs. Gleison Tibau
This fight breeds little interest because both fighters are kind of bland in their approach. Ferguson wons The Ultimate Fighter 13 in 2011 and in four years is 7-1 in the UFC. Yet, few care about him. That has to say something right? Tibau is a game opponent for almost everyone in the division because he will slug with guys. He just can't finish upper echelon fighters. Is Ferguson that? Hard to say at this point and only time will tell. This fight should be a slug fest or at least I hope so. Problem is, I can't see either guy putting the other one away. Ferguson by Decision

Alan Jouban vs. Richard Walsh
A fight that is hard to care about. Both are 1-1 in the octagon. Jouban however does have the better punching power and his UFC win, over Seth Baczynski, is the better of the two. Jouban by Decision

Jake Ellenberger vs. Josh Koscheck
This fight was more interesting when Neil Magny was in place, but Ellenberger can bring excitement too on occasion. Four years ago, this could have been a contender fight and now these two guys are trying to keep their UFC careers alive. My how the tables turns. The difference is that I believe Ellenberger still has some fight in him and Koscheck should be retired, if not now then after Saturday night. Time for Ellenberger to put one of the last two original Ultimate Fighter competitors to bed. Ellenberger by TKO

Raquel Pennington vs. Holly Holm
Hype only gets you so far and this is one where I could be so wrong, but I don't think Holm has anything long term for a fighter of Pennington's ability. None of Holm's seven fights have ended in the first round, yet she has finished six of them. Her boxing and power is not in question, but she hasn't faced someone on Pennington's level, a true blue mixed martial artist. For Pennington, she can't get into a brawl like she did in her win over Ashlee Evans-Smith or she will get knocked out. She has to smart fight and know she has more bigger fight experience than Holm. Pennington by Decision

Ronda Rousey (C) vs. Cat Zingano
I truly believe that Cat Zingano is the best female fighter in the UFC* and can beat any other woman the UFC throws her way*. Please note the asterisks. Those asterisks stand for "other than Ronda Rousey." Let's not beat around the bush, Rousey is as good of a female MMA as there is and there are also a lot of guys that she would beat. Zingano is on an entirely different level than the rest of the girls in the division and she proved that when she originally earned this shot by dismantling Miesha Tate before she got hurt. Unfortunately, there is one level about Zingano's and that is where Rousey lives. Rousey by Submission

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Bigfoot Predictions

Prediction watch
UFC Fight Night Henderson vs. Thatch:4-2
2015 Overall: 27-24
2015 Title fights: 0-1

Now onto the next event! Due to, mostly, a lack of interest, I will only be predicting the main card fights.

The Main Card
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sean Strickland
Santiago was stellar on his season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil before being pulled from the finale with an injury. While it kept him from a TUF title, he has shown that even the best on that show were probably just mediocre. His last outing was stellar and he looks like a physical beasts, but a decision loss to Ryan LaFlare in his debut was a sad sight. Stickland's win over Luke Barnatt, even controversial was a better win that Santiago's lone UFC win. Plus, nobody has ever beat Strickland with only four fights ever going to decision. As much as Santiago looks stronger physically, I think Strickland keeps finishing. Strickland by TKO

Iuri Alcantara vs. Frankie Saenz
This should be a no brainer. Alcantara has been fighting in the octagon for much longer and has faced some really good competition. His last loss came to Urijah Faber and he was moderately competitive in a fight he had no chance of winning. He rallied off three wins in 2014 against some decent mid-level fighters in the division. Alcantara by Submission

Rustam Khabilov vs. Adriano Martins
Khabilov was exposed as probably not a top-tier 155-pound fighter in his loss to Benson Henderson, but that doesn't mean he isn't a higher tier guy than Martins. Martins' best win is over Daron Cruickshank and he was decimated by Donald Cerrone. Meanwhile, Khabilov is still very, very good and has only lost twice ever. He beat up on Jorge Masvidal in a Fight of the Night and once suplexed Vinc Pichel to sleep. Easy win here. Khabilov by TKO

Cezar Ferreira vs. Sam Alvey
Nobody knows where either of these two guys fit into the middleweight division. Cezar can be a beast, but looked bad in a loss to CB Dollaway and just ok in a win over Andrew Craig. Still he sits at 4-1 in the UFC and a win here could get him a top 15 opponent. Alvey was brought back to the UFC after being part of the embarrassing TUF: Nelson vs. Carwin season. He looked great against Dylan Andrews, but was that a fluke? Ferreira by TKO

Edson Barboza vs. Michael Johnson
In my opinion, the best fight on the card. Barboza can be vicious (just Google his head kick demolition of Terry Etim in 2012) and has withstood every UFC test but two (losses to Jamie Varner and Cerrone). His biggest problem is lack of consistency. He mutilated Evan Dunham last July but then ho-hummed through a decision win against Bobby Green in November. If he slacks here, Michael Johnson could put him on the wrong end of another highlight reel knockout. Johnson seems to have found his stride after a back and forth start in his UFC career, but has not fought in a year due to some domestic issues. But before that break, he pounded former title contender Melvin Guillard in a decision win, knocked out the iron-chined Gleison Tibau and went to an absolute amazing war with Joe Lauzon, picking up the decision. This is a big test for Johnson (ranked 12th) against the sixth ranked Barboza. A win for Barboza could get him close to a title shot, but a win for Johnson would finally get him inside the top 10 and a chance to angle for a big fight next. Johnson by TKO

Frank Mir vs. Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva
Let us all go to a magical land where we care about this bout in 2015. I like Frank Mir, I really do. But he shouldn't have a job and Silva. Other than upsets (see "Punchers chance") over Alistair Overeem and Travis Browne, he has not won since February 2011 when he used that same lucky heavy hand to stop Fedor Emeliankenko, which was kind of a right of passage in Fedor's career in 2011. Silva's last actual impressive fight that was a win was 2010 against Mike Kyle. It has almost been as long for Mir who snapped Big Nog's arm in 2011 before being destroyed in succession by Junior Dos Santos, Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett and kind-of Alistair Overeem. This is likely a loser-leaves-town fight where both guys could be singing their career swan songs. They should be anyway. Mir by Submission

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. Thatch Predictions

Prediction watch
UFC 183: 7-4
2015 Overall: 23-22
2015 Title fights: 0-1

Now onto the next event! Due to, mostly, a lack of interest, I will only be predicting the main card fights.

Main Card
Ray Borg vs. Chris Kelades
Borg is one of those guys who you really hope gets his act together. He is 1-1 in the octagon and looked great in his last outing after looking terrible in his first. Outside of that loss inside the UFC, he has never lost. He has the potential to be a contender at 125 pounds, in a division that dramatically needs a new contender. Kelades is not on Borg's level and really looks like he is being fed to Borg here so that the UFC can start trying to build him in the flyweight division. Borg by TKO

Michael Prazeres vs. Kevin Lee
Both guys hold one loss in their careers and both guys beat Jesse Ronson inside the octagon. What else do we know. Not really much. Lee was exposed in the cage with Al Iaquinta, but managed to make it to a decision, which not many people have done against the Serra-Longo fighter. It is an intriguing fight in the fact that they are both on the same low level in a stacked 155-pound division. No chance this fight gets finished. Lee by decision

Dan Kelly vs. Patrick Walsh
Kelly comes in undefeated (not counting an exhibition loss on The Ultimate Fighter: Nations) but Walsh is a legit striker, who is very dangerous on the ground as well. That said, Kelly is better on the ground and will likely look to take the fight there. Walsh by decision

Neil Magny vs. Kiichi Kunimoto
Magny stormed through 2014 with a record 5 wins in the year and will be rewarded with a guy who hasn't lost since 2012. I don't pretend to know much about Kunimoto, but I do know that Magny is cerebral, one of the many reasons he has survived in the UFC after a terrible season of The Ultimate Fighter: Carwin vs. Nelson, where neither the winner or the runner up is still employed by the UFC. Magny keeps rolling here for his sixth straight and should get a top 15 fighter next. Magny by decision

Max Holloway vs. Cole Miller
I am still not on any Holloway hype train that there may be. He has not beat anyone of any real depth and he has lost against tougher, veteran and game opponents like Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor and Dennis Bermudez. I for one, also question his decision win over Leonard Garcia. Miller is slick and even though he doesn't have the stand up game that Holloway has, he is so much longer with a five inch reach advantage. Miller by submission

Benson Henderson vs. Brandon Thatch
Let's dispense with all the pleasantries. Brandon Thatch is not on Benson Henderson's level. Not at 170. Not at 155. Not if they fought at 205. Thatch hasn't lost since 2008 in Strikeforce, while Henderson lost a couple of weeks ago. But exactly who has Thatch beat? An aged Paulo Thiago? Justin Edwards? Thatch got the short end of the stick here and the UFC is going to kill off another rising fighter in a weight class because they had nothing better to back up this event with. Bendo was brought in to save some face value but it will kill Thatch's value, what little he has. Henderson by TKO