IAD 2008-2009 COLLEGE BASKETBALL PREVIEW DAY THREE
BEST OF THE MAJORS PART 1: "The Bigs"
Part one of my look at the seven "major" conferences starts with "The Bigs" of the Big East, Big Ten and Big XII (that's twelve if you can't count roman numerals). These conferences always bring a good deal of excitement to the table, and in 2008 they even brought a national title by way of the Big XII's Kansas Jayhawks.
16 teams total to put the "big" in Big East whereas many as 10 teams could honestly find themselves dancing come March. Leading that pack is Notre Dame, who have no real household names behind Luke Harangody, but just a consistent core of players that includes four seniors and three juniors other than Harangody. Sure, they lost 12.5 ppg with the graduation of Rob Kurz, but they also add redshirt freshman Carleton Scott, who will likely shoulder half of that load while senior combo Ryan Ayers will also chip in a few more on the offensive end. Behind them is a hungry UConn Huskie team that prematurely exited the 2008 tournament in part due to an injury to AJ Price. Athlon Sports picks them to make it to the National Title game and that may be something that the Huskies have to cash in on right away with Price's forthcoming graduation and the likelihood that 7'3'' junior Hasheem Thabeet will also take his size and low-post skill pro come June.
But, where to go from behind these two? Picks 3-10, all very likely tournament candidates, will be tough to make. Louisville, Pittsburgh and Marquette are the likely choices to be on the heels of Notre Dame and UConn, but Georgetown, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia and Providence would all like to make cases for themselves as well.
It's an upperclassmen laden conference that also happens to be highlighted by lightning quick guards. I can't wait to see the super-duo of Dominic James and Jerel McNeal at Marquette. Unfortunately, the load is all theirs, along with a couple other guards with no real post threat. If you want an intriguing post threat in the Big East, look no further than New Jersey where 6'9'' JR Inman is going to do some damage for Rutgers. I'd expect the senior to improve his numbers a bit and likely average 15 and 10 in his final season.
And while the Big East flourishes, the Big 10 is kind of another story. Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State should all shine their dancing shoes, but beyond that, it's looking pretty sparse. The Boilermakers should be a runaway champion in the conference, losing just one player in transfer Scott Martin. He transferred because he was not seeing enough minutes, so chances are they won't miss him too much. Chances are even more likely that the Purdue faithful will be too busy watching Martin's ex-classmates Robbie Hummel, E'twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson run roughshod over the league. Toss in the sturdy veteran Chris Kramer and this is likely to be at least an Elite Eight team. Wisconsin will also be interesting to watch, despite losing over 20 ppg. Numbers for Marcus Landry and Trevon Hughes will go way up.
Possible the most interesting thing to watch in the Big 10 this year will be likely last place Indiana, who returns just Kyle Taber. Who, you ask? Exactly. JuCo transfer Devan Dumes, freshman late signee Malik Story and walk-on Evan White are the ones who I think will do the most damage or at least look good in trying.
Ohio State's return to the tournament will not be that easy. They didn't make it there last season for a reason, despite winning the NIT, and they lost their top three scorers. So everybody in Columbus is going to have to pick up the slack if they hope to return to the real madness of March. I'm expecting freshman BJ Mullens to have the best "non-Oden" year that anyone has had for the Buckeyes in recent memory.
Big XII = Blake Griffin. Remember that equation and come June, you will also know how to solve the NBA Draft Lottery equation (hint: 1 = Blake Griffin). Coach Jeff Capel took over a becoming inbattled program from the cheat-tastic Kelvin Sampson and has done some good things with it. His best move, getting Griffin to stay in school and lead the Sooners deep into the 2009 postseason. He'll get some help from junior Tony Crocker but Willie Warren, the freshman who led the McDonald's All-American game in scoring, will give Oklahoma the perfect outside match for Griffin's inside power. Texas will contend, but unless AJ Abrams can get some help inside (Dexter Pittman just ain't gonna do it). Baylor hadn't been to the NCAA's in 20 years before being the last choice this past Spring, but they will be back again I'm sure, however they won't bridge that big gap between them and the top two teams in the Big XII.
Behind those three, it's tough to call. Kansas returns just four players (Sherron Collins being the most experienced) from their National Champion team, but junior college transfer Mario Little will pick up more than his fair share of slack. Oklahoma State, Missouri and (kind-of) Texas Tech will all have to rely on new coaches. Meanwhile, Nebraska's off-season has been ripe with injury and big recruits bailing.
ALL-MAJOR (Big East, Big 10, Big XII) CONFERENCE PLAYERS TO WATCH
Blake Griffin (Oklahoma) - Player of the Year
AJ Abrams (Texas)
Hasheem Thabeet (UConn)
Dominic James (Marquette)
Luke Harangody (Notre Dame)
Robbie Hummel (Purdue)
OTHER MAJOR (Big East, Big 10, Big XII) PLAYERS TO WATCH
Sherron Collins (Kansas)
Mario Little (Kansas)
Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati)
AJ Price (UConn)
Jerel McNeal (Marquette)
JR Inman (Rutgers)
Scottie Reynolds (Villanova)
Raymar Morgan (Michigan State)
BJ Mullens (Ohio State)
E'Twaun Moore (Purdue)
Marcus Landry (Wisconsin)
Trevon Hughes (Wisconsin)
IAD CONFERENCE CHAMPION PREDICTIONS (if different than regular season winner, automatic bid recipient will follow in bold)
Big East: Notre Dame
Big 10: Purdue
Big XII: Oklahoma
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