>UFC 107 Predictions

UFC Predictions (100-102, 104-106): 26-38-1 - last card: 6-3-1

It is that time again, yes another UFC event. This one, like so many lately, is not what was originally broadcast to be. Instead of Rampage/Rashad, it is headlined by an equally heavy handed potential slugfest and for a world title even.

PreLims
Kevin Burns def. TJ Grant
2nd Round Submission

Edgar Garcia def. Marques Johnson
3rd Round TKO

Rousimar Palhares def. Lucio Linhares
1st Round TKO

Johny Hendricks def. Ricardo Funch
2nd Round Submission

Matt Winman def. Shane Nelson
Unanimous Decision

Wilson Gouveia def. Alan Belcher
2nd Round KO

MAIN CARD
Stefan Struve vs. Paul Buentello
I won't pretend to be an expert on either of these guys. But I do know this: it is never a good day to face a 6'11'' guy in any athletic competition when you are 6'2''
-Struve by 1st Round TKO

Kenny 'KenFlo' Florian vs. Clay 'The Carpenter' Guida
It's a tough life to live for Guida, who is always right on the cusp at 155, but will never be top tier. He fought Diego Sanchez, which was a good match up because they both swing for the fences, but Diego is just better at that which is why Clay fell to this fight and isn't challenging BJ Penn. Neither is going to be rendered irrelevant in a loss here, but the loser will get pushed significantly back down the 155 ladder. Guida is a swinger, but Florian is just plain smarter than almost everyone in the UFC, so what he lacks in aggression, he makes up for in mentality. Someone steps closer to a title shot, someone has to put it on the back burner.
-Florian by 2nd Round Submission

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Pierce is a scrappy guy, but has the unfortunate reality of running into THE scrappy guy in the UFC. Fitch will take a beating and keep on ticking, as he showed in his most unfortunate loss at the hands of Georges St. Pierre. And Pierce is no GSP when it comes to putting the hurt or the pressure on. The welterweight division is packed full of contenders, but the question is who is the top draw (even with Dan Hardy getting the next crack at GSP). Koscheck, Rumble, Paulo Thiago...they all may have to stay 2nd string because a dominant win for Fitch here could catapult him back to top contendership for the GSP/Hardy winner.
-Fitch by 1st Round KO

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
I personally don't think that this fight will be as close as some. Kongo, while likeable, just does not have the world's most killer instinct. And while Mir does not often show his on TV or outside of the cage, he sure knows when to turn it up. And knowing that Mir's primary focus in all of life is Brock Lesnar, he knows that he has to dominate every fight until the UFC matches him back up with Brock. I don't see this fight as the pure 'Strike vs. Submitter' that the UFC is trying to bill it as. Instead, it's a striker, with no other significant abilities against THE BEST submitter in the division, who can just as well knock you out. I think Frank will do both just to prove he can...knock him down, then tap him out.
-Mir by 2nd Round Submission

UFC World Lightweight Title
'The Prodigy' BJ Penn vs. Diego 'The Nightmare' Sanchez
I am 1-3 in predicting title fights since UFC 100. Is that because I don't have faith in the old guard? Possibly. Two of those misses came in the last two fights, predicting that Penn and Machida would fall in their last defenses. I also have a problem picking fighters I like based purely on that fact. I need to change my mentality on both of these things because of this: BJ Penn is one of the best smaller MMA fighters ever. He proved me wrong last time in SOME ways. He outlasted Kenny Florian and killed the strategy of testing BJ's gas tank over five rounds. I said earlier in this post that Kenny Florian is one of the smartest fighters in the UFC and he is...but BJ Penn outsmarted him. If BJ can outsmart Diego, then this will be a very long, methodical fight where BJ will retain again and maybe end up with the Nate Diaz/Gray Maynard winner. But, there are some holes that need to be pointed out. Number one, BJ was exhausted after five rounds with Kenny Florian, so he would be really exhausted after five rounds with a worker like Diego Sanchez, no matter what Diego's tank may look like (and who knows...we've never seen Diego go five). With that said, BJ knows and has said that his mentality in this fight when Diego runs at him is to run right back at Diego. This would be the dumbest thing that I have ever seen because Penn just can't let 'em fly like Nightmare can. I would love to say this will be an epic, five round war that will redefine this division. And if it does go that far, there is a much greater chance that BJ Penn will be retaining and Diego will fall. But BJ has told us his gameplan and when he does that, he usually sticks to it. I, sadly for BJ, believe what he says, so that really only means one thing to me.....
-Diego Sanchez by Second Round TKO to become the NEW UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPION OF THE WORLD

That's right, i'm throwing out the conventional wisdom to go against what I normally do. Instead of playing it "safe," I am going with a new champion and a fighter that I just plain like a lot better. But it's not for the same reasons as usual. This time it's educated and it's because BJ's making me do it. Sorry champ, you never run at the rhino that's about to gore you. Time for a change.