Thursday, January 22, 2015

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs. Johnson Predictions

Prediction watch
UFC Fight Night McGregor vs. Siver: 8-4
2015 Overall: 13-10
2015 Title fights: 0-1

Now onto the next event!

The undercard

Neil Seery vs. Chris Beal
Seery clearly has a more diverse game, but Beal showed in his last fight just how nasty he can be with his striking. His flying knee KO win in his last fight is something that will have a lot of people talking about Beal this weekend. How can he handle some spotlight, even if he is just in a Fight Pass prelim. A decisive win for Beal could catapult him up the rankings and I think he is still riding the momentum. Beal by TKO

Viktor Pesta vs. Konstantin Erokhin
I dunno. That is honest. Erokhin is making his UFC debut and is heavy handed, winning all but one career fight by knockout. He is the kind of guy that could really make an impression in the division, but Pesta is no slacker himself. Both guys are 9-1 and have decent futures in the UFC but I think that Erokhin is just too powerful. Erokhin by TKO

Mirsad Bektic vs. Paul Redmond
Remond is the underdog here for a season and that reason is Bektic's perfect record. This will be a hard fight to predict even though Bektic has the edge. Redmond by Decision

Mairbeck Taisumov vs. Anthony Christodoulou
Another tossup where I am going to take consistency on two guys that I really don't know. Taisumov by Decision

Andy Ogle vs. Makwan Amirkhani
Ogle has the shakier record, but when you see that four of his five career losses are in the UFC and include questionable decisions to Akira Corassani and Cole Miller, it isn't that bad. Amirkhani is making his UFC debut and hasn't fought anyone of note. Ogle is 1-4 in the UFC coming off his season of The Ultimate Fighter, but has looked impressive in all of those save for a submission loss to Charles Oliveira. Ogle's back is against the wall and that should make him dangerous against the newcomer. Ogle by Decision

Kenny Robertson vs. Sultan Aliev
Both of these guys are pretty similar with one exception. Look for Robertson to take this one too the ground, where he is much more proficient. A slugfest could favor either, but if Robertson can get this to the ground, he has a decent chance to finish the fight or at least ride it out safely. Robertson by Submission

Nico Musoke vs. Albert Tumenov
Tumenov is the favorite but there is just something I have liked about Musoke's game. He is slick and even though he is not a finisher, he did tapout veteran Alessio Sakara in his debut, a submission of the night. Musoke by Decision

Main card
Sam Sicilia vs. Akira Corassani
This is a tough fight for Sicilia and I am not sure it was smart to take. Corassani is unpredictable and fights very up or very down. My guess is that with the Swedish crowd behind him, he will be up. I don't think I am going out on a limb when I say that I expect a war here even though that is Corassani's game. I can see this fight going either way very easily and I don't know that I am at all confident in my pick. Corassani by TKO

Ryan Bader vs. Phil Davis
I worry that this will become an Arizona State vs. Penn State wrestle fest. Davis has championship potential but never shows it when needed. His win over Glover Teixeira was a clinic, but unimpressive. Bader needs this win to stay relevant, which is crazy since he was once one win from a title fight more than likely. Bader's win streak is nice but it has come against mediocre opponents and he hasn't finished anyone for two years. It has been longer since Davis has. This could be a great match but it could also be a snore fest. Either way, this fight is a toss up. Bader by Decision

Dan Henderson vs. Gegard Mousasi
I don't think Henderson has another title run in him, but I do think that in 2015 and every year prior, that Hendo is by far the better fighter here. I think he believes he has another run in him, so expect some bombs. Henderson by TKO

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Anthony Johnson
This is probably the most dangerous matchup that Gustafsson could have chosen for himself if he wants to fight Jon Jones this year. Rumble Johnson may not always be the best but he always has the punchers chance in a big way. This could be interesting but a worry as I don't see Rumble having a shot to take down Jones in a title fight. This will be a war, probably a little bloody, but Gustafsson showed against Jones that he can give it out as well as he can take it and the kid can take a punch. Shockingly, I don't see Rumble's power being able to take out the Swede easy and expect Gustafsson to throw caution to the win to get his rematch. Gustafsson by TKO (for fun, I'm saying 4th round)

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