Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Redrafting the 2008 NBA Draft

Welcome to the official rollout of the world of one-and-dones. No longer will kids be coming straight from high school, but instead going to campus for a school year, attending classes for four months (or just long enough to stay eligible) and then going to make a pay day.

That was the story of this draft. No more high school run wild and the foreign picks have tapered off. Four of the first five and five of the first seven picks were college freshmen, making this the start of a new trend that has taken over (note that three of the biggest prospects in the 2014 Draft are all freshmen).

It was also a nice look at how poorly the Miami Heat were run for a long time. After missing out on the number one pick, which should have statistically belonged to them after the most horrendous of seasons, the team passed on at least two future Hall of Fame players to select Michael Beasley. Geez.

This was also a tough one as I legitimately saw 18 guys for these top 15 positions (sorry George Hill, JJ Hickson and Ryan Anderson.)

Also, it is the first class where my analysis doesn’t and doesn’t have to run as deep because, well, we all know about these guys and what they do. We see it every day during the NBA season and we don’t need to look back so deeply.

Pick 1: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Derrick Rose
Who they should have took: Kevin Love (5th pick)
Why: Love is perhaps the most purely dominant player from this draft class. His size and agility make him hard to guard no matter where he is on the floor. In a class that is pretty damn good today, Love shines because he is such a complete players. Teaming him with Joakim Noah and other complimentary players would have made the Bulls the team to beat in the East almost every year since this draft.

Pick 2: Miami Heat
Who they took: Michael Beasley
Who they should have took: Russell Westbrook (4th pick)
Why: Westbrook is a standalone prospect that hasn’t been give the opportunity to stand alone. He and Durant are too much alike, outside of size, that they will succeed on talent, but there isn’t much room for co-existence in Oklahoma City. Still, he is the best overall point guard from this draft and combined with a more subtle talent like Dwayne Wade in Miami, he would be a MVP candidate today without Miami losing much of a step. However, the reality here too is that if you would have drafted and kept Westbrook, adding LeBron wouldn’t have worked out because of the same type of personality clashes. Still, a ‘big three’ of Russell, Dwayne and Chris Bosh would be pretty damn good.

Pick 3: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: OJ Mayo (traded to Grizzlies)
Who they should have took: Derrick Rose (1st pick and keep the pick)
Why: Ok, injuries do hurt Rose’s stock here, but he would still be a huge pick up for the Timberwolves and would have saved them from their forthcoming Ricky Rubio/Jonny Flynn/Wayne Ellington point guard pileup draft. I don’t believe that D.Rose would be longed to stay in Minnesota, so maybe you still take Rubio so he arrives from Europe as Rose leaves the first chance he gets in free agency, but picking Rose here allows you to play more with your future drafts than the crazy David Kahn and company had the luxury to do. And again, injuries aside, Rose is an amazing talent and the third of these top three guys who is likely bound for the Hall of Fame. He is truly one of the best score first point guards in the modern era, possibly ever, of the NBA.

Pick 4: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Russell Westbrook
Who they should have took: Brook Lopez (10th pick)
Why: Look, Lopez hasn't been healthy for the majority of his career it feels like. But when he is, he certainly can lay claim to being a top 5 center in the league. It sure would have left Oklahoma City without a critical piece at point guard, but would have made them so strong on the interior that they could have taken later money used for the Serge Ibakas and Kendrick Perkins' of the world and still brought in a quality point, who maybe could get along better with Durant? Lopez can rebound with anyone in this league is strong on defense, the pick would be a no brainer to me as his value certainly soared from the 10th pick after he actually played in the league.

Pick 5: Memphis Grizzlies
Who they took: Kevin Love (traded to Minnesota)
Who they should have took: Eric Gordon (7th pick and keep the pick)
Why: Gordon never has been the player he was in high school. It was a stretch, mostly due to his size, to believe that he could be. But he still proved a valuable scorer at Indiana and has become a reliable second option in the NBA. For Memphis, with Rudy Gay and Mike Conley in the fold, Gordon could have had more flexibility without so much reliability. As a true shooting guard, he could have flourished. A lineup today (had they kept the team intact) of Conley, Gordon, Gay, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph would be a tough squad to beat out West. Taking that pressure off Gordon in Memphis, which didn't happen in LA, would have done wonders for his career, which isn't too shabby at all anyway.

Pick 6: New York Knicks
Who they took: Danilio Gallinari
Who they should have took: OJ Mayo (3rd pick)
Why: Mayo is a headcase, hence his drop off here. Nobody can deny his talent, but the problem is that as he gets more disciplined in his career, his production drops off. This past season, as the least ball hogging he's been. he scored a career low. But Mayo is still a prolific scorer and athlete that the Knicks coveted at a time where they had none before the Carmelo acquisition.

Pick 7: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Eric Gordon
Who they should have took: DeAndre Jordan (35th pick)
Why: I don't know who could have expected the meteoric rise of DeAndre, but I think too a lot can be credited to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. If you look at his numbers, you wouldn't think Jordan would be a top 10 pick, but the reality is that he is an absolute game changer. Physicality, mentality, leadership, explosiveness, defensively, if I was building a team he would probably be the fourth guy from this draft I would actually take behind Love, Westbrook and Rose. He finally averaged in double digits in scoring this past year, but his rebounding numbers exploded from 7.2 rpg to a league high 13.6, all while leading the league in shooting percentage for a second straight year. The Clippers ended up with their man anyway, but in a redraft, he certainly wouldn't be there at #35.

Pick 8: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Joe Alexander
Who they should have took: Danilio Gallinari (6th pick)
Why: Because he isn't Joe Alexander? Gallinari was a highly touted prospect who really isn't looked at as a success. Why? I am not sure. He didn't perform well as a rookie in New York but steadily improved his numbers to the point that he was a key centerpiece on the New York side in a trade that brought the Knicks Carmelo Anthony. If it had not been for him and his consistency, the Knicks may have not had the assets to bring in Melo. Since then, he has been a leader in a generally decent Nuggets organization and just had his best year as a scorer and one of his best as a rebounder and passer. 

Pick 9: Charlotte Bobcats
Who they took: DJ Augustin
Who they should have took: Nicholas Batum (25th pick)
Why: Batum came into the league with a lot of hype from Europe. He has been a critical piece for the thriving Trail Blazers and the Bobcats were still searching for a personality. And DJ Augustin wasn't it. Batum would have come in and immediately been a young prime time scorer at a time when Charlotte was relying heavily on a seemingly ever changing rotation of veterans who were not reliable in the long term.

Pick 10: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Brook Lopez
Who they should have took: Goran Dragic (45th pick)
Why: His production in the last two years is why I would see Dragic soar to this spot. While Deron Williams has been great in New Jersey/Brooklyn, could you imagine a world where they didn't need him and could spend his money elsewhere (hello Carmelo?). Dragic's assist per game went down last year, but only to see his scoring clip surpass 20 ppg and his shooting percentage soar above .500.

Pick 11: Indiana Pacers
Who they took: Jerryd Bayless (traded to Blazers)
Who they should have took: Roy Hibbert (17th pick and keep the pick)
Why: The Pacers ended up with Hibbert anyway, but you actually need to make this choice earlier. Yes, he faltered a lot this past postseason, but he is still over 7-feet with a huge upside. His inconsistency keeps him out of the top 10, but his size and ability (if he ever fully uses it) make him a guy you absolutely have to take here and Indiana is way better off with him than had they gone in any other direction in 2008 with this pick.

Pick 12: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Jason Thompson
Who they should have took: Courtney Lee (22nd pick)
Why: Lee is a steady scorer to come off a bench. He's already been with five teams and will probably always be a journeyman add-on in trade. But he still fills his role no matter where he goes and that is really all you can ask most of the time from anyone picked outside the top 10.

Pick 13: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Brandon Rush (traded to Pacers)
Who they should have took: Michael Beasley (2nd pick and trade the pick)
Why: Beasley isn't a bad player, he's just a role player in the league and not the star that Miami wanted or that he was at Kansas State. But let's face facts, there is a huge difference between Kansas State and the NBA. But his biggest detriment are six off the court issues, including being kicked out of the rookie camp shortly after the draft. On the court, he could fill a void in Portland and give them more of an edge, both then and now.

Pick 14: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Anthony Randolph
Who they should have took: Serge Ibaka (24th pick)
Why: Ibaka has ended up being what Golden State thought they were getting originally in Randolph. He's a shot blocking machine, already leading the NBA in blocks on two separate occasions and his rebound and scoring numbers are often on the increase.

Pick 15: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Robin Lopez
Who they should have took: Mario Chalmers (34th pick)
Why: Chalmers probably didn't need the 'big three' yelling at him for years in Miami while being relegated to the bench in favor of Norris Cole. Phoenix has been without a real point guard since Steve Nash and today they could really use a nice point guard. Meanwhile, the lesser Lopez has been nothing but trade fodder.


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