Take it for what it is...it's an odd collective of players this year and pretty much a crap shoot in guessing, even with just two days until draft time.
1. Los Angeles Clippers - Blake Griffin / Oklahoma
Griffin is pretty much the only guarantee at this point simply because of his basketball maturity and potential. He is a scorer who can come in and help the team while not clashing with stars like Baron Davis. Potential wise, he has the most long term of anyone in this draft, but the Clippers need to know he won't be a quick fix for their ailing franchise unless they add more around him this offseason.
2. Memphis Grizzlies - Hasheem Thabeet / UConn
Memphis is in a unique spot where they need something, they just don't seem to know what. They already have a strong foundation of highly skilled young players with the likes of Rudy Gay and Mike Conley. So without needing to take a player like either of those two, they can gamble a little on Thabeet who still needs some tweaking, but isn't the prototypical "project player." And, it doesn't hurt that he is a 7-footer that can move around better than most at his height.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder - James Harden / Arizona State
While it's hard to pass on Ricky Rubio here, I just don't see a need for him in the OKC with Russell Westbrook leading things at the point. So with so many other voids to fill, they need to go for the best pure athlete here and that's Harden.
4. Sacramento Kings - Ricky Rubio / Spain
If I were making a draft pick, Rubio would be my guy. He has strong ball handling skills and unparalelled international experience for someone of his age. He has the most imediate upside in my opinion of any of the top picks. The Kings luck out here that Oklahoma City already has a young point guard and Rubio drops to four.
5. Washington Wizards - Tyreke Evans / Memphis
Smart money says that Evans goes here, even if the proposed trade to the Timberwolves goes through. He's another athletic player who has the intangibles and can score, which both teams need. He accents Gilbert Arenas well if Washington does stay here and he replaces Randy Foye in the scoring capacity if the T-Wolves ship Foye to Washington in part for this pick.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves - Jordan Hill / Arizona
Minnesota needs a lot of things, most notably another big to help Kevin Love down low. Hill is not going to be a prime time scorer in the NBA, but he can rebound well and be a shot blocker. It makes sense to take Hill here and free up the later first (2) and second (2) round picks. However, if they don't pull the trigger to get the 5th pick, they might want to take someone more athletic here instead of drafting for size.
7. Golden State Warriors - Brandon Jennings / Italy
It has been years since the Warriors have drafted an effective player, which is what Jennings would be as he fits in well with the up tempo style that made the Warriors one of the league's best offensive teams a year ago.
8. New York Knicks - Jrue Holiday / UCLA
The Knicks need a strong combo guard. Stephen Curry is the 'duh' pick here. The Knicks have a habit of dissapointing their fans with the draft held in New York yearly. All that said, I expect them to make another bad move, pass on Curry and allow the Big Apple faithful to boo the UCLA freshman right off the stage.
9. Toronto Raptors - Stephen Curry / Davidson
Toronto needs another super freak athlete in the mold of former players Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady. Unfortunatly, if the Knicks get stupid like usual, it is too hard to pass up Curry who would really be a steal at nine.
10. Milwaukee Bucks - Demar DeRozan / USC
With the trade of Richard Jefferson for three guys who won't do much, the Bucks really need a score now guy and fast rising projected points Jonny Flynn and Ty Lawson won't be that guy. The fluctuating DeRozan is the best bet of someone who can help earlish and oftenish.
11. New Jersey Nets - Terrence Williams / Louisville
New Jersey is the most solid of the lottery teams and Williams fills their only real void at the 2-guard.
12. Charlotte Bobcats - Gerald Henderson / Duke
Charlotte has been a team not so much of habit in the past, outside of the no brainer Emeka Okafor pick in their first draft. That said, it is hard to predict what the hell Michael Jordan may do here. Best bet is they stay inside and get a state of North Carolina guy who also fills a need at the shooting guard area.
13. Indiana Pacers - DeJaun Blair / Pittsburgh
With the aging Jeff Foster and the ill-used Josh McRoberts and Maceo Baston likely out of the post and out the door to free agency, the Pacers need to go big. DeJuan Blair doesn't fit the mold of any of those three, but maybe that is what is needed for this team that still needs to clean up the rough edges from last offseason's overhaul.
14. Phoenix Suns - BJ Mullens / Ohio State
I personally don't see the draw of Mullens, who I can't even call a disspointment at Ohio State. But many others do. With Shaq aging and potentially out the door this summer, Phoenix needs another big behind Amare Stoudemire. With Blair out of the equation, Mullens is the next highest post on most people's radar.
15. Detroit Pistons - Jonny Flynn / Syracuse
Flynns is climbing most Mock Drafts, but a good deal of teams don't need a point and that is hurting both he and Ty Lawson. But with his freak vertical and more than average wingspan, Flynn has the potential to be a very different kind of hybrid combo guard in the NBA. That potential is too much for Detroit to pass on with Rodney Stuckey at the point and a seemingly unhappy duo of Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince on the wings.
16. Chicago Bulls - Earl Clark / Louisville
Welcome to the crap shoot part of the draft where nobody has any idea who really is going to go where. The Bulls don't need anything other than depth, so they can afford to take a risk here on a guy that isn't as reliable won't be a prime time player until he puts in some work.
17. Philadelphia 76ers - Eric Maynor / VCU
Does Andre Miller stay? Does it matter? In NBA terms, he's aging a bit so Philly needs to take someone who can run the point in a couple of years if not right away. With the holes at the 2 spot, they also need a point who can score. Maynor is mature and reliable.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves - James Johnson / Wake Forest
He's a top 10 pick in some Mock Drafts and Minnesota should have already addressed their post issues in the lottery, so take a chance on Johnson here; he's athletic, young and can be molded.
19. Atlanta Hawks - Ty Lawson / UNC
Hawks need depth at point behind Mike Bibby (should he return) and most other teams don't really need a true point, so the Hawks could luck out here if Lawson really does slip.
20. Utah Jazz - Jeff Teague / Wake Forest.
Almost every Mock Draft has Tyler Hansbrough here, but I am not sold that he will be worth even a pick this high. Utah does not draft well, which is sad because they could lose tons in free agency. The smart pick is a "just in case" post (not Hansbrough), but I don't see Utah making the smartest pick, still Teague will not be a bad decision.
21. New Orleans Hornets - Austin Daye / Gonzaga
New Orleans also needs a "just in case" post pending their offseason moves and the big men are getting pretty thin here.
22. Dallas Mavericks - Darren Collison / UCLA
Even if Jason Kidd comes back, Dallas needs someone who will be their next floor general with Kidd and Jason Terry at their ages.
23. Sacramento Kings - Omri Casspi / Maccabi Tel Aviv
The Kings can play around here a little if they do indeed land Rubio at #4, so trading this pick to try and bring in a couple reliable guys wouldn't be a bad idea. Granted, this is a team that hasn't made a good pick since Hedo Turkoglu in 2000, so who knows what they might do.
24. Portland Trail Blazers - Sam Young / Pittsburgh
Portland has never shyed away from the International player, but I think they will stay more conventional here. And no, conventional doesn't mean smart.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder - Demarre Carroll / Missouri
OKC is still a year away from really knowing what they need. Until then, they need to keep playing around with different options and Carroll is the best player available at this point.
26. Chicago Bulls - Tyler Hansbrough / UNC
Chicago has a decent set of guys in the post already and could benefit from Hansbrough's game while not needing him to provide too much too quickly.
27. Memphis Grizzlies - Patrick Mills / Saint Mary's
Going big early if they take Thabeet means going small late, which has to mean Patrick Mills if he is still available. Combo'ing him with Conley and Gay could prove highly effective.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves - DaJuan Summers / Georgetown
It is the final person in the Kevin Garnett 7-for-1 deal and it's probably one of the most relevant. Minnesota has three to four first round picks so can have both an aggressive and wait and see attitude. This is the best spot for them because they have who they want, now they can get someone else who just slipped because of other picks.
29. Los Angeles Lakers - Rodrigue Beaubois / Cholet (International)
What do you need when you've just won a NBA title and three of your four free agents are likely staying put? Best guess is another point who can add depth with Jordan Farmar's oft-odd play and Derek Fisher not getting younger.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers - Toney Douglas / Florida State
Cleveland has this pick so that they can either: (1) add an athletic player who plays defense to their mix on the wing or (2) throw it away. Douglas could fit either mold.
Just outside the first round/potential late first round picks (in order): Chase Budinger (Arizona), Wayne Ellington (UNC), Nick Calathes (Florida), Marcus Thornton (LSU), Victor Claver (International), Taj Gibson (USC)
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