Thursday, January 29, 2015

UFC 183 Predictions

Prediction watch
UFC Fight Night Gustafsson vs. Johnson: 3-8
 2015 Overall: 16-18
 2015 Title fights: 0-1

Now onto the next event!

The undercard
Thiago Santos vs. Andy Enz
This fight should be an absolute brawl. Or could be incredibly boring as neither fighter will want to engage with the opposing heavy striker. Enz has a great chin and he will probably need it against a technical guy like Santos. The question here comes in Enz' grappling skill, which he actually does have some of. However, to grapple Santos, he has to get close to Santos and that could be an issue. Enz will be hard to stop on his feet because of that chin, so this one could be one of the best scraps on the entire card. Santos by Decision

Ildemar Alcantara vs. Richardson Morreira
This could be a plodding affair. Alcantara has looked terrible as of late, but has a ton more experience coming into this fight. Alcantara by Decision

Diego Brandao vs. Jimy Hettes
A welcomed bout of slugging, where unlike the opener, there is no potential that the two won't engage. They both looked like can't miss prospects not too long ago, but now are kind of swimming in no man's land. I'm not entirely convinced that Brandao can last for three rounds yet, his cardio has always been questionable. However, he has more tools than Hettes no matter where the fight goes. Hettes though, is much faster and could avoid those Brandao bombs to try and take him deep into the fight and test that cardio. Brandao by TKO

Rafael Natal vs. Tom Watson
I don't see this fight as close as a lot of people do. In fact, for some reason I just see Natal getting blitzed for a round before succumbing in the second. If Watson is ever going to make any movement in the 185 pound division, the time has to be now. Watson by TKO

John Lineker vs. Ian McCall
In the shallow UFC flyweight division, this fight could determine the next championship challenger. Lineker seems to have been building to that for some time, but missing weight in three of his seven fights in the company have derailed him. He has also never fought anyone as good as Ian McCall, who unlike Lineker, would never get choked out by Louis Gaudinot. McCall is basically stalled in the division as possibly the best 125-pounder not named Demetrious Johnson. But he wants another chance at the champ, who he fought to a draw with in their first battle. McCall by Decision

Ed Herman vs. Derek Brunson
Brunson has never impressed me and I think any hype he has is unwarranted. Herman is a long time division gate keeper with no real consistency. Toss up here, but I'm going to say the scrappy Herman finds a way to stave off Brunson's wrestling. Herman by Decision

Miesha Tate vs. Sara McMann
This is another like Lineker/McCall that is a tough call. Tate has long proven to be the best in the division not named Ronda Rousey and McMann's only loss ever is to Rousey. McMann's strength is clearly in her wrestling, but Tate is probably what you'd call underrated on the ground. I think this is a war wherever it takes place but someone has to escape with a finish to have any credence to stay in the title fight talk and Tate's game is more diverse. Tate by Submission

Main Card
Thiago Alves vs. Jordan Mein
Alves is not the 'Pitbull' of old or this would be an easy call. He doesn't have the power, the speed or the tenacity that he used to. Mein however is coming off a crazy TKO of Mike Pyle that opened a lot of eyes. This is the fight I am most torn on even though the night is loaded with close battles. Alves by Decision

Thales Leites vs. Tim Boetsch
Boetsch is another guy I have never been sold on. But that said, he is a tough, old school, grind em' out guy and that has worked a lot in his UFC career in multiple weight classes. Leites however is in career revival mode and he does not want to see that sputter out with a loss to Tim here. It has been almost 6 years since he challenged for the UFC Middleweight title and has ran through seven straight opponents. Boetsch may be a better choice 85% of the time, but with Leites tear, he knows he can't let up now. Leites by Submission

Joe Lauzon vs. Al Iaquinta
Slugfest. Performance of the Night bonus. It's all going to happen. The question is, is Joe Lauzon smart enough to know when to leave the striking game and work submissions on Al, who is known to get caught? Iaquinta's ground game is solid, but it is not Joe Lauzon good and that should be the difference maker in this fight. However, if Joe is smart enough to avoid the bloody, bloody punching war is still to be seen. Going on a little limb. Iaquinta by KO

Tyron Woodley vs. Kelvin Gastelum
I don't know what it is about Gastelum, but I just don't see this kid losing for a while. Woodley is a huge test, the biggest outside of Uriah Hall that Gastelum has had to come by, but the kid has completed all tests with flying colors. So why doubt against him. Because Tyron Woodley is a killer, that is why. I expect Woodley to come at Gastelum with everything he has and test the kid's chin. But I also think that leads to him getting caught and Gastelum trying to go to work on the ground. I already love this fight. Gastelum by Submission

Anderson Siva vs. Nick Diaz
Look. This isn't a super fight. Bless everyone's heart, but is this really a fight? I'm not convinced Diaz will even be on weight, this might be a fight at 190 or 195 pounds. I just don't see it. I want to. The promos are good. 'Don't be scared homie' and all. But c'mon. No, seriously, c'mon. Silva by TKO

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