Friday, June 13, 2014

Redrafting the 2004 NBA Draft

2004 swung back away from the power of the playmakers and back into a realm of which big man do you gamble on. While the only real contender in the mind of the Orlando Magic, back at it with a number one pick, were untested high schooler Dwight Howard and dominant college big man Emeka Okafor, there were other less heralded but appealing options like foreign born BYU seven-footer Rafael Araujo, another high schooler in Robert Swift and Latvian Andris Biedrins.

For Orlando, it was all about making that absolute right choice and sticking with it. In the 90’s, they made that top pick twice, both on big men and both were the right pick, although they only kept one (Shaq) and the Chris Webber trade still haunted them.

So who was the right post?

Pick 1: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Dwight Howard
Who they should have took: Dwight Howard
Why: Howard was clearly the right choice, even if his career at this point is often deemed a let down. He was never a let down in Orlando and is really only considered one now because we as a society have deemed him as an elite player and he probably really isn’t. He is, at the top of his game, a physical dominant big man, as much so today as Shaq was in his prime to that generation of the league. Does that mean Dwight ever was as good as Shaq? No. But he was powerful in Orlando, clearly the league’s best post and even after the Dwight-cision that led him to LA and Houston, this remains (11 years later) by far the best choice for Orlando.

Pick 2: Charlotte Bobcats
Who they took: Emeka Okafor
Who they should have took: Andre Iguodala (9th pick)
Why: With all of the talk being between Howard and Okafor pre draft, you can see why the Bobcats made this pick. Also, Okafor was legitimately strong in college at Uconn. The Bobcats picked who they thought would help them win immediately. But as is often the case in Charlotte, they were wrong. Mostly because they weren’t going to win immediately, no matter what. Knowing that fully now, Iguodala is the pick because he was NBA ready. His game was on a professional level from the get go and he has become the most overall prolific scorer from this draft, which would have been of a high value to a team building from the complete ground up like these expansion Bobcats.

Pick 3: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Ben Gordon
Who they should have took: Al Jefferson (15th pick)
Why: If you look at Al Jefferson’s high school stats (as I just did for the first time ever), it is so shocking to see that he fell to the 15th pick of this draft. His scoring average rose every year at Prentiss (MS) High School, which is impressive since he scored 25 ppg as a freshman. I understand that he was criticized in the pre-draft process for being lazy and lacking effort, but if I am a GM I try to get or force effort out of a guy who his senior year averaged (with no exaggeration) 42.6 points, 18 rebounds, seven blocks and four assists PER GAME. And he’s gone on to do right in the league, scoring 21 and 23.1 ppg in his first two seasons in Minnesota after being part of the Kevin Garnett trade. He was at the top of his free agent class in 2010 and 2013 and has become the face of a suddenly viable Charlotte Hornets organization.

Pick 4: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Shaun Livingston
Who they should have took: Luol Deng (7th pick)
Why: There were a lot of question marks about Deng that he quickly erased. It was one thing for his uncanny understanding of the game at its fundamental core to transfer from England to Duke. But could he do the same in the league? After all, he was long and thin coming out of one year with Coach K. He developed nicely in the league and has increased his scoring and rebounding more seasons than not. Los Angeles was looking for a long complimentary wing and went with the guy who could also play point. Had Livingston not suffered a horrific injury, he may still be the pick here. But he did, so you take Deng, a 35+ minute a night guy with a high motor.

Pick 5: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Devin Harris (traded to Mavericks)
Who they should have took: Josh Smith (17th pick)
Why: Josh Smith suffered in Atlanta from being a guy stuck between positions. He was a natural three-man with a height (6’10’’) and teammates (they took Josh Childress the same year) that forced him to be a four and I really think that is what forced him to put on weight to try play that position and ultimately to me, hindered his NBA development. In Washington, they had small guards and post players and Smith would have been able to slide right into a natural position. And he had longevity. Imagine a Wizards team adding John Wall if Josh Smith had still been around like he was in Atlanta, but at his natural position where he could give you more than 15 and 8 every night.

Pick 6: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: Josh Childress
Who they should have took: Ben Gordon (2nd pick)
Why: Ben Gordon was projected to be a Joe Dumars like player and it is a role that he really does fit into now as a veteran. Gone are the days when teams (like the Bulls when drafting him) expect him to be a lead guard and he can settle in as a role player. Detroit used him right when they traded for him in 2009, but still expected more. While his numbers were down, he was still filling a key role, but they already made the mistake of paying him too much and later made that mistake Charlotte’s problem. With a clear path after a March release, I look forward to Gordon proving his worth in a natural role finally.

Pick 7: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Luol Deng (traded to Bulls)
Who they should have took: Jameer Nelson (20th pick)
Why: Nelson’s draft stock fell because of his close association with the story of his college team at St. Joe’s. They were pretty highly touted, made an amazing undefeated run and then flopped in the NCAA Tournament. For a lot of teams, the story of St. Joe’s was a cautionary tale about drafting their star player Nelson. Also not working for Nelson was his size, but what did work for him was an ability to score as his passing game developed. It is hard to say Nelson struggled as he has consistently put up good numbers in Orlando, but in Phoenix, he could have had more time to develop and not expected to immediately be a high profile player as he was an accessory to Dwight Howard in Orlando.

Pick 8: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Rafael Araujo
Who they should have took: Devin Harris (5th pick)
Why: Harris is another guy, like so many in this draft (see Gordon, Ben or Nelson, Jameer) who has seen his production, role and value drop off dramatically over the years. However, he was very viable early and often in Dallas and later New Jersey and Utah. In 2009-2009, he was a breath of fresh air for the Nets as an All-Star who averaged over 21 ppg. That was his sixth year in the league and his numbers climbed every year leading up to it. Sadly, they declined each year sense. But if you look at what Harris did to start his career, he would have been a revelation in Toronto during that stage.

Pick 9: Philadelphia 76ers
Who they took: Andre Iguodala
Who they should have took: JR Smith (18th pick)
Why: With a solid, if not uninspired core of big men, Philly needed a legit scorer and scraper with their pick to offset Allen Iverson. They got the scorer part in Iguodala, but I feel like Smith would have been a great fit as a scrapper. Smith made an immediate impact in the league, scoring 10 ppg as a rookie in New Orleans and could have added to a physical and intimidation driven demeanor in Philly usually perpetrated by Iverson, Samuel Dalembert and Chris Webber.

Pick 10: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Luke Jackson
Who they should have took: Anderson Varejao (31st pick)
Why: The Cavs ended up with Varejao anyway after trading away Tony Battie and 2 second rounders for a package that included the Brazilian center. And it paid off as he has pretty quietly became one of the better Cavaliers of the new millennium not named LeBron. He has even gotten better with age, putting up career highs as recent as 2012-2013, including surpassing 14 rpg.

Pick 11: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Andris Biedrins
Who they should have took: Kevin Martin (26th pick)
Why: Because Biedrins was a bust. There was a lot of high hope for him to come in and be someone that the Warriors could build around and he surely wasn’t that guy. Martin could have been. It is hard to imagine, but he averaged just 2.9 points per game as rookie, the only time he has averaged in single digits. As a matter of fact, he has averaged over 20 ppg as many times (5) as he has averaged under (6). The only thing that keeps Martin from being higher in this redraft is that he is mostly a one trick pony. He can score, sometimes in droves, but he really isn’t diverse in much else. But when it comes to building around a scorer, like Golden State needed, he should have been the guy.

Pick 12: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Robert Swift
Who they should have took: Trevor Ariza (44th pick)
Why: Seattle was in a weird spot. They had a couple of great options, a couple of good options and a lot of ‘eh’ options. They wanted to add someone and took a gamble on Swift, a highly regarded high school center. He played in 16 games as a rookie and scored 15 points. Ariza, not expected to be able to keep up at the NBA level did much better than that, averaging almost 6 ppg while playing in 80 for the New York Knicks. He adapted well over time to the NBA game and broke out strong in Houston, while continuing to be a valuable provider ever since (he had his second best year this past season in Washington).

Pick 13: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Sebastian Telfair
Who they should have took: Tony Allen (25th pick)
Why: Allen was a defensive ball hawk during the Celtics’ most recent NBA title run and has become a must have player for the emerging Memphis Grizzlies. His numbers may not always be the best, but he’s been part of the NBA All-Defensive team for two of the past three seasons and is a shut down player no matter where on the court his game takes him. Better yet, he’s regained some of the explosiveness lost after a knee injury in 2007 and has spent his four years in Memphis as four the best five offensive years of his career to go along with that defensive prowess.

Pick 14: Utah Jazz
Who they took: Kris Humphries
Who they should have took: Emeka Okafor (2nd pick)
Why: Another time you have to use the word bust when he really isn’t one. Was he the number two pick in reality now that we can look back? No. But has Okafor Darko’d it up? Not close. He would have benefited greatly to have been able to be brought along slow behind Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur in Utah and would have provided another real threat for a team who had talent but was still lacking what could get them over the hump. Okafor’s still career high 15.1 ppg as a rookie would have gone a long way to help the rebuilding franchise without having to be THE guy to do so. While his numbers have slowly dropped off, he is still a production guy off the bench who averaged a double-double for his first five years in the league.

Pick 15: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Al Jefferson
Who they should have took: Delonte West (24th pick)

Why: You take Delonte West here because he is an enigma. He’s not great, he’s not horrible. Delonte West is, at best, suitable when put in the right roles. He provided a little boost as a rookie in Boston anyway and then went on to post career best numbers his next two years before the implementation of the Big Three left him out in the cold. He’s a streaky shooter who can be very irritating to opposing offenses.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Redrafting the 2003 NBA Draft

Let's face it, this was the greatest draft in the modern era on the NBA. It provided countless All-Stars and award winners already and will produce at least three Hall of Famers.

There isn't much you can say about this draft. It was a four man draft thought to be a five man draft. There was LeBron, Carmelo, Wade and Bosh....and then there was Darko. Poor, poor Darko.

Pick 1: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: LeBron James
Who they should have took: LeBron James
Why: This is a no brainer. For as much as I have never been a fan of LeBron, there is no denying his talents and how it has translated to the pro game. There a lot of reasons to hate on LeBron, some justified and others not. He is as polarizing as any player in professional sports today. However, his talent is on another level (and some, not me, believe that to be a level of its own). Any other pick here would have been ALMOST as bad as Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan.

Pick 2: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Darko Milicic
Who they should have took: Carmelo Anthony (3rd pick)
Why: You will read more about my feelings on Dwayne Wade shortly, but Carmelo is the pick here because of what he did different than anyone Detroit had. With Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton as a steady guard core, someone would have gotten lost in the shuffle had D-Wade gone with this pick. I think that is partially why Detroit gambled with “can’t miss” European prospect Darko. The pick itself was one of the biggest busts, as going with Darko made more sense to the franchise than risk losing Carmelo or someone else in their bountiful collection of wing players. However, Carmelo ended up being more dynamic than expected, so they missed out. Imagine adding a prolific scorer like Melo to the group that Detroit had at this point. I doubt they would have only won a single title.

Pick 3: Denver Nuggets
Who they took: Carmelo Anthony
Who they should have took: Dwayne Wade (5th pick)
Why: I will say, without reservation, that I believe a healthy and at the top of his game Dwayne Wade is the best player in the NBA. Period. To me, and likely not many other people I am aware of. And I am ok with that. Add that and his demeanor (and how it differs from Melo’s) and I think Dwayne Wade could have taken Denver to new heights. With Allen Iverson, with Kenyon Martin, with Chauncey Billups…I think that they could have put together a legacy in Denver, much the same as they have in Miami, but with less gap in between titles. Wade would likely still have been enough to draw Shaq, this time to Denver. And what if LeBron and Chris Bosh took their talents to the Rocky Mountains instead of South Beach. But even if nobody else came in blockbuster moves, Wade would still have blossomed and would still be every bit as likely to take the Nuggets to a crown or two.

Pick 4: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Chris Bosh
Who they should have took Chris Bosh:
Why: Bosh wasn’t the best player available and Toronto missed out huge by not taking Wade. But here, he is the best. He is not smooth in my opinion, but he does work hard and do good things. He’s a strong interior defender and has found range in his shot in recent years. Toronto took a gamble with a big man and it wasn’t a bad one, Bosh has just never been a stand alone talent, hence why his greatest success and best play has come as part of Miami’s trio. Even if you know he still leaves if you are Toronto, you still take the gamble for him to elevate your organization for a few years.

Pick 5: Miami Heat
Who they took: Dwayne Wade
Who they should have took: David West (18th pick)
Why: West has proven himself, especially in recent years, to be among the elite of today’s posts. He can score both inside and with a little range and he is an excellent, strong, defender. Is this the golden era of post players? No. But what West does is exceptional. It is hard to say what Miami would have done with him in the fold, as they still needed a go-to guard like Wade was, but he surely would have helped position the Heat to be a free agent destination, even if it wasn’t THE free agent destination.

Pick 6: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Chris Kaman
Who they should have took: Kendrick Perkins (27th pick)
Why: Perkins is tough because has always been what I would classify as helpful. With Boston’s NBA title, with runs in OKC the last few years. Perkins helps and that is something that until very recently, that the Clippers needed more than anything. If the people in LA could have figured out how to get the Boston versions’ work ethic and effort combined with the sleeker, more athletic build of the OKC version, Perkins would have been a huge steal right here at six.

Pick 7: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Kirk Hinrich
Who they should have took: Chris Kaman (6th pick)
Why: It’s hard to call Chris Kaman “not a success story.” After all, he didn’t come from a big time college program and he has been an All-Star. If anything, he would have been a bruiser in a Bulls area without any. No big man they drafted in the Bulls post player years was a physical guy at that point in their career. Tyson Chandler was still thin and while he didn’t fight inside, Kaman would have been a big help on the court and in practice toughening Chandler up a little earlier when it still would have helped Chicago.

Pick 8: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: TJ Ford
Who they should have took: Kyle Korver (51st pick)
Why: Korver has the unfortunate honor of being one of the first (let’s face it) Caucasian stars coming from a mid-major program. Where we now have Doug McDermott, there was once Kyle Korver. Did he have the athleticism to perform in the NBA? Was he more than a shooter? More than a one trick pony? Most people said no, hence why he almost went undrafted. The reality is that yes, Korver can do a lot for teams. He’ll still shoot the lights out but he has endeared himself to fans, to other players and has learned to better create off the dribble. And now, his career serves as a blueprint for those McDermott type of players looking to adapt to a higher level.

Pick 9: New York Knicks
Who they took: Michael Sweetney
Who they should have took: Jose Calderon (undrafted)
Why: Not much was known about Calderon at this point coming from overseas. He has made a silent, but solid career mostly in Toronto, where he averaged 12.8 points and 8.9 assists per game in 2008-2009, while also leading the league and setting a NBA record shooting .981 from the free throw line. Setting league records isn’t bad for a guy who didn’t even get picked up. For comparison, actual pick Michael Sweetney shot a career high .749 from the line his second season but was only a career .689 guy. Oh yeah, he was out of the league two full seasons before Calderon set that record.

Pick 10: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Jarvis Hayes
Who they should have took: Kirk Hinrich (7th pick)
Why: Hinrich got that nod at #7 originally because he was significantly taller than the other option (TJ Ford). Hinrich’s understanding of fundamentals would have been perfect in Washington where they were already trying to clean up the mess of the Kwame Brown debacle. While Hinrich never has developed into a “prolific” player on either side of the ball, he has great court vision and is one of the few above average natural passers in the league still today.

Pick 11: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Michael Pietrus
Who they should have took: Nick Collison (12th pick)
Why: No knock on Pietrus (even though you won’t see him mentioned again in this blog), but Collison was a rare NBA-ready back to the basket post. A prototypical power forward guy, he was never going to give you flare, but sure could work and was highly coordinated for a college center. That alone made him worth a pick. But his ability to work well on either end of the post was superb in 2003 and while he still has never given much flare, he has stayed a steady contributor in most aspects of the game. Bonus: he’s loyal. He has only played for two teams in his career and that only happened because the Sonics moved and took him to OKC with them.

Pick 12: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Nick Collison
Who they should have took: Boris Diaw (21st pick)
Why: Letting Diaw slip out of the lottery was a bad move by NBA teams. He was an athletic freak when he came out in 2003 after twice making the educated decision to withdraw his name in 2001 and 2002 because he didn’t feel his game was ready. Like several mentioned in previous blogs, he was a key piece in the Mike D’Antoni run and gun Suns teams, who had they stayed together, could have logged a Spurs like push because of late foreign pick ups like Diaw. And in all fairness, that is probably why he is having a mini-revival in San Antonio now, scoring the best he has since 2011.

Pick 13: Memphis Grizzlies
Who they took: Marcus Banks (traded to Celtics)
Who they should have took: Steve Blake (38th pick)
Why: And kept him. Blake was a question mark going into the league. He was clearly a strong shooter at Maryland, but his question marks following him are still ones that haunt smaller shooters, even at big schools: could he diversify his game on the next level. Blake did so in droves and took some of the pressure off for future guys and some succeed (JJ Redick) and some fail (Adam Morrison). Blake has turned out to be one of the most consistent second rounds on the new millennium, no matter where he traveled. While it’s unlikely he’d still be in Memphis, he would be a tough back up for Mike Conley.

Pick 14: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Luke Ridenour
Who they should have took: Leandro Barbosa (28th pick)
Why: Speaking of Suns key to their mid-2000s runs, here is where you have to take Barbosa, giving Seattle and redraft duo of those former Suns. Barbosa was so much the same players as Diaw out of the draft, but the way the two worked together was always fun and explosive. Taking Diaw, it was a no brainer to want to take his athletic equal and mirror. Barbosa also adds a little better three-point game and was a less talented template of what Kevin Durant would eventually bring to the table for the organization.

Pick 15: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Reece Gaines
Who they should have took: Dahntay Jones (20th pick)
Why: Jones is a guy who has quietly been helpful even though he was never really a good fit with the teams he was with, possibly outside of Denver. He’s done well to try to change that in Atlanta. His upside is his freaky athletic ability once out on the break. The downside: he’s so inconsistent (hence the often trades and releases). A highlight of that inconsistency: he shot 17% from three point range in 07-08 in Sacramento, only to head to Denver the following year and hit 65% of his long range shots.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Redrafting the 2002 NBA Draft

The 2002 draft was, and ended up being, loaded with solid talent. Only a few of those guys played at a high level for a certain amount of time, but this was a pretty solid draft of hard working guys who have mostly had longevity in the league. Sure, there were some misses (Nikoloz Tskitishvili ring a bell?), but still strong throughout the first round.

Yet still, there is always room for improvement. And here is why.

Pick 1: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Yao Ming
Who they should have took: Amare Stoudemire (9th pick)
Why: Yao Ming was the great new foreign born hope for Houston, who had struggled to regain its identity since Hakeem’s heyday, even if he hadn’t been gone from Houston for very long. But the NBA had changed. Gone were those structured dominant big men and here were the run and gun, flying 6’10’’ guys throwing down dunks from all directions. Though his pace has slowed in later years, Amare Stoudemire would have led the Rockets to a whole new level. Getting up and down the court, eventually with Tracy McGrady by his side, would have been thrilling to watch and made the Rockets into a strong team to recon with come playoff time. Consistency and talent combined, Stoudemire ended up being the best pick in this draft.

Pick 2: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Jay Williams
Who they should have took: Tayshaun Price (23rd pick)
Why: The Bulls had been tinkering with big man combos for a few years when it came to draft picks and this was an attempt to balance them out. In theory, their pick was perfect. But bad decisions changed all that. So I would take Prince here. Like every pick from this and most drafts around 10 or so years ago, his contributions have declined, but he was a sensational scorer in his prime and a talented guard on defense during the Pistons’ championship run. Overall body of work says that he ended up being the best guard in this draft.

Pick 3: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Mike Dunleavy Jr.
Who they should have took: Yao Ming (1st pick)
Why: You can’t really pass on Yao here. He could have helped change the tempo of a listless Warriors squad so much. They had three young, explosive thousand point scorers in Antwan Jamison, Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson and adding Yao to the inside would have been interesting. The drive and dish would have been almost perfect and way better than to actual leading post Troy Murphy. In an era with tons of draft mistakes, this would have been a huge coupe for the Warriors.

Pick 4: Memphis Grizzlies
Who they took: Drew Gooden
Who they should have took: Carlos Boozer (35th pick)
Why: Memphis did actually go in the right direction with this pick. They were solid at PG, SF and C and adding a power forward was the most intelligent step. They just took the wrong one with so many to choose from. Boozer went on to be one of the more prolific second round picks ever, with All-Star and All-NBA accolades to come after his rookie campaign where he averaged a career low 10 points and 7+ rebounds, still pretty helpful for a second round guy. Questions of work ethic and how in shape he was haunted his draft stock, but he quickly put those worries to bed in the league. He would have been awesome next to Pau in Memphis.

Pick 5: Denver Nuggets
Who they took: Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Who they should have took: Nene (7th pick)
Why: They got him anyway, but Nene was the far better gamble. He has averaged more than 10 ppg more than Nikoloz and is still actually in the league. While never what I would refer to as dominant, Nene was a key part of the park talented Nuggets lineups with Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson, scoring a still career high mark of 15.2 ppg during his third season.

Pick 6: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Dajuan Wagner
Who they should have took: Caron Butler (10th pick)
Why: Cleveland was still toying. And at this point, sandbagging or not, they knew that almost hometown boy LeBron James was a lock in as the number one pick the following year. So did they help tank with their draft pick? Eh, maybe. But I don’t believe in tanking, so I would have taken versatile and prototypical small forward Caron Butler. Other than his shot selection, Butler was and is a strong option on the offensive side of the ball. Had they still gotten LeBron, Caron could have slid to the 2-guard if needed, but he was NBA ready after two years at Uconn, and not a lot of people are NBA ready that soon, even if they think they are.

Pick 7: New York Knicks
Who they took: Nene Hilario (traded to Nuggets)
Who they should have took: Udonis Haslem (undrafted)
Why: Today, Haslem stands 6-foot-inches and weights 235 pounds. He still is a physical specimen at age 33. So why did he not get drafted at all? Because after he left the Univ. of Florida, he ballooned up to over 300 pounds. And nobody wanted that kind of weight on their shoulders. But if they could go back, I assure you the Knicks would keep this pick and take Haslem, who got in shape and became a credible contributor for Miami along the way, with only his last three seasons, with diminished playing time, worse than his rookie campaign. He’s one of the league leaders in NBA titles as a current player and has always been a big, scary presence down low.

Pick 8: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Chris Wilcox
Who they should have took: Mike Dunleavy (3rd pick)
Why: The Clippers needed a hit in 2002 and they took another miss. Dunleavy however would have lended a lot of credence to a LA turnaround. The Clippers already had a pair of former Blue Devils in their starting lineup, but outside of those two and Andre Miller, it didn’t run deep in Los Angeles. At 39%, Eric Piatkowski was their best long range shooter, so to bring in someone purely made for that role like Dunleavy would have helped balance their inside-out game much more than a Magette drive did. Dunleavy would have helped get Elton Brand way more touches by drawing the defense out on his shot and perhaps the Clippers would have won more than 29 games.

Pick 9: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Amare Stoudemire
Who they should have took: Matt Barnes (46th pick)
Why: The take on Matt Barnes was pretty negative coming out of UCLA. For all of the things people said were positive about his game, there were two more things that took away from his luster. Not a good shooter, will struggle to play either forward position, settles for worse shots. He’s help erased those as one of the best work horses in the league, especially during Golden State’s big time 2007 playoff run to knock off Dallas in the playoffs. Barnes became, like Haslem, just a force and really the enforcer for any team he was on. He wouldn’t have been an adequate offensive replacement for Stoudemire in Phoenix with Steve Nash, but he would have helped the Suns push the tempo with his ball-to-the-wall play.

Pick 10: Miami Heat
Who they took: Caron Butler
Who they should have took: Luis Scola (56th pick)
Why: Scola played more like a NBA guy in Europe than most international guys do. He did (and still can) get up and down the court well and has always had a nice touch around the basket, especially putting offensive rebounds back. Miami was looking for a little bit of everything and in my redraft, Scola would be the best option on the board to score, which is what they needed most (after all, Butler as a rookie ended up being this team’s best player).

Pick 11: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Jared Jeffries
Who they should have took: Drew Gooden (4th pick)
Why: The team needed to be hungry in the post and they took a guy who was too small to do anything about his hunger. Kwame Brown already looked like somewhat of a wash out and a slightly oversized Christian Laettner was their leading big man. Gooden was able to attack straight at the basket or with his back to it, which would have made him an ideal partner for Michael Jordan and Jerry Stackhouse both, depending on what one of those guys was doing any given play.

Pick 12: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Melvin Ely
Who they should have took: John Salmons (26th pick)
Why: From very early, even if not at the same success rate as he would eventually attain, Salmons created a lot of mismatches. As a combo guard at Miami (FL), he liked to play in the post with his back to the basket, usually taking advantage of smaller and weaker guards. He would have been a fun backup to Corey Magette, who was doing those same things in Los Angeles, perhaps with a little more flare.

Pick 13: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Marcus Haislip
Who they should have took: Kareem Rush (20th pick)
Why: A smooth shooting lefty is a premium. And the Milwaukee Bucks sucked. What made them suck even more? Trading away arguably the best shooting guard of the modern era, perhaps the best 3-point shooter ever during the following season for an aging point guard you didn’t really need. Having Rush, not Haislip (the statistically third worst player on the team his rookie year), would have made the loss of Ray Allen sting quite a bit less. Rush didn’t perform as a rookie but wasn’t needed with the Lakers, where as the Bucks desperately needed someone of his ability in their core, again especially after the Ray Allen trade.

Pick 14: Indiana Pacers
Who they took: Fred Jones
Who they should have took: Jay Williams (2nd pick)
Why: Jay Williams, had it not been for poor judgment and a motorcycle accident, I do believe would still be a premier point guard in the NBA. And if one team needs one of those, it is Indiana. Williams was mature at Duke and was bound to mature more in the NBA but never got the chance. With the Pacers, he would have been a legit threat off the dribble, thus making him one of the most dangerous point guards in the modern era because he could score from almost anywhere on the floor. This is one of those picks you make, even if you know it’s not going to pan out because of an accident, just because what he did give before the accident (including a rookie year triple-double against the Nets) would be well worth the price of the 14th pick.

Pick 15: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Bostjan Nachbar
Who they should have took: Roger Mason (31st pick)
Why: Because blue collar would have worked with Stoudemire’s flash. As a true combo guard, Mason would have been a high level sixth man in Houston and provided depth that the Rockets really didn’t have and surely didn’t get in Nachbar.


Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Fixing the Indiana Pacers

So this started out as me talking to and kind of joking with my dad a few days ago, but I think I have the solution to what ails the Indiana Pacers. A proposal of sorts for Larry Bird, an answer to the question “what do we do/where do we go now?”

Blow the whole thing up. Embrace Lance Stephenson. Become the Bad Boys. Yeah, you know the Bad Boys Mr. Bird, they beat on you. You took some games from them, they took some from you. But at the end of the day, nobody wanted to mess with the Bad Boys. And not generic bad boys in Indiana like Ron Artest and Jermaine O’Neal tried to be. Literally and beat em up, hardcore defensive team…but one that can also score.

Time to stay “blue collar” and drop the “gold swagger.” So here is what you do in my possibly demented mind:

Start with free agency where you have five guys to decide on and two more whose salary cap hit you lose.

First thing is first: pay Lance Stephenson the money you pay Evan Turner and send Evan on his way. Will this be enough for Lance? I’m not really sure. But, going from his $1 million dollar contract to Evan Turner’s $6.6M would be a major step up for a guy who contributed so much more.

Let Lavoy Allen and Rasual Butler walk away. $4.4M total salary for the season for two guys who combined for 150 points? No thanks.

Let Andrew Bynum hobble away. It was worth a shot, right? Well, probably not in reality. But paying Bynum any more money would be silly. Sillier than my theory on how to rebuild this team.

Losing the $1.4M combined cap hit for Orlando Johnson (who you waived this spring) and Ben Hansbrough.

Automatically through free agency, you are getting rid of five guys who provide nothing. Any money at all to resign them would be pointless. In 2014-2015, you spent about $67.5 million against your $58.7M salary cap. So why let any of those five inflate you more. Only Lance is worth the effort.

But you can’t stop there. Not by a long shot. Why? Because you signed Paul George to a dumb contract. Even losing those five guys, your salary would now be about $71.8 million because Paul’s salary goes up TEN MILLION DOLLARS next year. For a guy who had 1 point in the first half of a crucial Eastern Conference Finals game. So what next?

Trade away the big money.

First of, trade Paul George, Luis Scola, Donald Sloan and future considerations or draft picks ($19.7 M value) to Oklahoma City for Russell Westbrook and Reggie Jackson ($17.9 M value).

Is this far fetched? Probably. Probably extremely. But, it would let OKC (also in need of some kind of overhaul) to get another star to package around Kevin Durant and maybe they can get along better. The honeymoon has ended for Westbrook and Durant, so why not make this move if you are OKC to improve? George brings a different game to the table and with the money OKC could save by using the amnesty on Kendrick Perkins, they can get a credible point guard to replace Russell. For Indiana, it unloads more contracts so they have future flexibility and you have a true point guard that can take Lance Stephenson off the ball.

Money saved: $1.8 million

Second, trade Roy Hibbert and a future first round pick ($14.9 M value) to the Charlotte Hornets for Josh McRoberts, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 9th pick in 2014 Draft and 45th pick in 2014 draft (7.7 M initial value).

The reality is that Hibbert still has trade value and now is the time to unload him. The trade essentially would break down to Hibbert for Kidd-Gilchrist and the 9th pick. The steal of this trade would be Josh McRoberts, who will be a (at best) 10 point, 7 rebound a night guy. BUT, if you are following my theme and making your own Bad Boys, then McRoberts is your Bill Laimbeer. He’ll clothesline LeBron for fun, if you don’t believe me, then YouTube it. Meanwhile, Hibbert is 7’2’’, valuable and can play ball so Charlotte would want him as a proven commodity. Kidd-Gilchrist would be an added element because he has yet to prove himself and will come cheaper than a year ago and probably in the future. If he breaks out, like he may possibly do, this would be a great pick up. If he washes out, then you still have gotten this 9th draft pick.

Money saved: $7.2 million

Third, trade CJ Watson and Ian Mahinmi ($6.1 M value) to Detroit for Chauncey Billups and Andre Drummond ($5.1 M value).

Detroit can reload a new center with potential as they have grown weary of Drummond, Indiana can have another backup for David West and now Josh McRoberts. It is a lateral move that would be cheaper for the Pacers. Dropping Watson to add the aged Billups does nothing but give you an experienced voice off the bench from a guy who won’t play much. A player/coach type of guy who has more of an overall upside because of his knowledge than Watson ever will.

Money saved: $1 million

So now you are draft ready and have saved yourself $10.4 million in trades while acquiring Russell Westbrook, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and a lottery pick with some other pieces that will help turn up the physicality.

So Adam Silver is at the podium now on Draft day. What do you do?

Draft Aaron Gordon (PF, Arizona) with the 9th pick. He’s a physical specimen and athletic in the post like a young Kevin Garnett. Is he that good? Probably not. But, his unique skill set allows you to throw out multiple different looks between him, David West, McRoberts and Drummond.

Draft Andre Dawkins (SG, Duke) with the 57th pick. A pure shooter for the league who can develop and who you have time to develop. By moving Stephenson to the 2-guard and having plenty of talent in your guard space, you can send Andre over to Fort Wayne and let him be a Mad Ant while he gets used to the NBA pace. He’ll help you in the future, just not now.

Based on the 2013 salaries of the 9th (Trey Burke) and 56th (Peyton Siva) picks (the 57th pick hasn’t and probably won’t play in the NBA), these picks are worth $2.5 M and $400 K respectively. Brings up your salary to about $64.4 million.

But we aren’t done yet Mr. Bird. Now we amnesty George Hill. $8 million for George Hill? Nah. Plus, he’s a weird guard. He’s a point guard player in a wing body. And I know what you want to say…”then who will back up Westbrook? If Lance is now a two, Reggie Jackson is really a two and Chauncey Billups won’t play or suit up much, then why would we amnesty George Hill?”

Because, you sign Mario Chalmers. One, he is talented and would be a terrific backup for Westbrook. Two, he can be hot headed and fit into your new scheme I’ve given you. Three, it is a thorn in the side of the Miami Heat. Take one of theirs. That’s what they did to the Boston Celtics. Is Chalmers as much of a hurter as Ray Allen? No. But you are taking one of their originals, one of the clan who has to be weary of how the “big three” yell at him and treat him. And, you can get Chalmers for HALF of what you pay George Hill. Your salary now lies at 60.4 million, still over your cap but $7 M less than 2013-2014.

Your starting lineup for 2014-2015: Russell Westbrook, Lance Stephenson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, David West and Josh McRoberts.

Yes, it is radical. But does Indiana need radical? Yes. Do you want to beat LeBron or do you want to BEAT LEBRON?!?!


Will any of this happen? Not a chance. But we can dream can’t we? If only they’d make me the GM.


Friday, May 30, 2014

Redrafting the 2001 NBA Draft

In no way shape or form was the 2001 NBA Draft as bad as the year before. It was a bright outlook inching the league closer to that benchmark 2003 draft. This draft with ripe with potential, but still in the era of high school to the pros and international appeal, there was a lot of underdeveloped as well as untapped potential.

But it was still close to 2000 and there was still little draft hangover (see Brown, Kwame and Griffin, Eddie). The highlight of this draft was what the Chicago Bulls tried to do. They traded franchise centerpiece Elton Brand for the second pick Tyson Chandler and drafted a second high schooler in Eddy Curry. It was a bold move that paid some dividends, but not enough for having the second and fourth picks, especially looking as some of the talent that was left in the wings.

The year was also another eye opener with high school kids. And not just because only one of the three from the lottery panned out, but because of a high school kid going 43rd, therefore having no guaranteed contract. That pick, Ousmane Cisse would ultimately never play in the NBA after forgoing his high school eligibility.

Pick 1: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Kwame Brown
Who they should have took: Pau Gasol (3rd pick)
Why: My only thought is that Washington knew Michael Jordan was planning on coming back and that is why they gambled. However, when you have the greatest ever playing past his prime and Rip Hamilton…and that’s it….you should probably plan better. The season after this draft produced the Wizards third best scorer as Chris Whitney. Yes, that Chris Whitney. Yes, the Chris Whitney that you have never even heard of before. And granted, I get the appeal of the big strong high school potential, but this is clearly where you take advantage of adding a guy who was just named the MVP of the Spanish National Cup. And that is even not knowing what we know now, which is that Gasol has become one of the more dominant and diverse big men of the modern era.

Pick 2: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Tyson Chandler (traded to Bulls)
Who they should have took: Tony Parker (28th pick)
Why: If you are the Clippers of 2001, you make this trade with Chicago no matter who you are giving in return. It was a wise move then, even if this pick had been Parker because of the (again, then) high level commodity that Elton Brand was. And the Bulls with Tony Parker? Intriguing. But what we know now if you are LA is that you take the Frenchman and you ride with him for years and years to come. Knowing Parker’s love of the Western Conference, his loyalty and his enjoyment of actresses, it is not a stretch to say that Parker would still be a Clipper today. Imagine adding him to the Griffin/Paul express? I doubt they would have fizzled out.

Pick 3: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: Pau Gasol (traded to Grizzlies)
Who they should have took: Joe Johnson (10th pick)
Why: You can’t blame Boston for shipping Joe out after a year, he was a dud. But if you are a pretty much always directionless Hawks club, you want to add one of your best players ever a little earlier. By the time Joe made his way to Atlanta in real life for his sixth season, he became a prolific scorer and only got better. This would have been a bad pick for Atlanta if Joe gave them the same 6.3 ppg/2.9 rpg effort he gave the Celtics, but if living in the ATL would have jump started him earlier in his career, this is the pick all the way.

Pick 4: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Eddy Curry
Who they should have took: Tyson Chandler (1st pick)
Why: Chandler was the right guy for the Bulls, just at the wrong spot. He was too lean and kind of meek for a kid from Compton to achieve early in the league. But he sprouted and became a force. He still is that force. Chicago was right in wanting him and going out and getting him. But, say they still make that trade for the 2nd pick, there were probably better instant impact guys to take to fill Brand’s role.

Pick 5: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Jason Richardson
Who they should have took: Zach Randolph (19th pick)
Why: Randolph’s knock was his weight coming out of Michigan State and in the age of the muscular big man (thanks Shaq), the doughy Randolph didn’t fit in, hence his drop in stock and draft pick. But what he went on to prove was that when used the right way, a little of that Charles Barkley ‘round mound of rebound,’ could work in today’s age. And while he hasn’t had the exact right people around him to make a big contender run, he’s done his part for years in Memphis and is the type of player that the Warriors keep failing in trying to develop (David Lee, Andrew Bogut, Erick Dampier, etc.)

Pick 6: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Shane Battier
Who they should have took: Jason Richardson (5th pick)
Why: Vancouver (weeks away from being Memphis) was lucky here that they weren’t trying to draft the face of their franchise because of their trade for the 3rd pick Pau Gasol. But in this redraft, Atlanta doesn’t trade Joe Johnson, so this has to be a guy to immediately delight in the new confines. Shane Battier is a lot of things (see the next pick), but Shane Battier is not THAT guy. Richardson was a delight in the Bay Area immediately, scoring 14.4 ppg in 80 games as a rookie and improved every year in Golden State save for his last, an injury shortened 2006-2007. The Grizzlies, with a lot of bad draft mojo (their best pick demanded an immediate trade) want a guy to lead the franchise into the future and Richardson could have slammed that future home.

Pick 7: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Eddie Griffin (traded to Rockets)
Who they should have took: Shane Battier (6th pick)
Why: Try to find a better “team” guy that Shane Battier. I dare you. Ignore the prolific shooting (I still say Miami has been lucky he’s been on the roster the last two NBA Finals) and look at how well Battier brings it all together. He is the glue for any organization, always has been. The day after this draft, the Nets traded troubled Stephon Marbury for Jason Kidd and Battier would have been a better mate than Richard Jefferson in my opinion. Battier’s shooting touch would have been essential on a Nets team that advanced to the NBA Finals the season following this draft and his outside game would have been a perfect compliment to Kidd’s slashing and Kenyon Martin’s inside presence.

Pick 8: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: DeSagana Diop
Who they should have took: Gilbert Arenas (30th pick)
Why: This is one of those areas where you just have to take a shot at Gilbert Arenas (no pun intended). Before he played shoot em up, or tried to, Arenas was a high motor guy who made three All-Star teams. He averaged over 10 ppg right out of the gate and built up to a fifth year averaging 29.3. Cleveland would have gotten a guy who was not peaking, but building his way to the peak at the same time LeBron James came in. And even if the balls hadn’t rolled the Cavs’ way in 2003 for Bron Bron, Arenas would have been a more than viable option to build the franchise around.

Pick 9: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Rodney White
Who they should have took: Gerald Wallace (25th pick)
Why: I’ve said this in previous blogs and I mean it. Detroit would have done well in building around guys who could have fit in with the Bad Boys of the 80’s and Wallace is one of those guys. Yes, they did win a NBA Title with the core they put together, but how many of those guys themselves would have fit in with Dumars and Mahorn? Wallace needed some fine tuning and used his years in Sacramento to grow the same way he should have used his remaining years of eligibility at Alabama. When he did reach his peak, he was a decent scorer that did the intangible things on the floor and got after the ball every possession.

Pick 10: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Joe Johnson
Who they should have took: Mehmet Okur (37th pick)
Why: Poor Boston. They sucked at the draft for so long. They finally took a good player in Johnson and he produced the worst year of his career. Okur could have been for them what they were looking for one year earlier with (shudder) Jerome Moiso. They had a who’s who of veteran garbage behind Paul Pierce and still managed to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals where they had to rely on a combo forward to handle the brunt of the rebounding. Okur, a career 7 rpg guy, would have helped in those finals to offset what Kenyon Martin was doing and given the Celtics another building block in the middle, something that was a constant struggle, even 8 years later when they won the NBA title.

Pick 11: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Kedrick Brown
Who they should have took: Richard Jefferson (13th pick)
Why: Kedrick Brown was supposed to be Kendrick Perkins before Kendrick Perkins was Kendrick Perkins. He was not. Picking up Jefferson here would have taken some of the load off Paul Pierce in the aforementioned Eastern Finals because Jefferson and Pierce were very similar in their play styles at this point. It also would have afforded Jefferson the proper time to grow behind Pierce instead of needing to be as prolific as he could be from the outset in New Jersey. Maybe he wouldn’t have washed out as quickly and become the mediocre veteran that he is, but shouldn’t be, today.

Pick 12: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Vladimir Radmanovic
Who they should have took: Jamaal Tinsley (27th pick)
Why: Ray Allen needed someone to pass him the ball correctly.

Pick 13: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Richard Jefferson (traded to Nets)
Who they should have took: Brendan Haywood (20th pick)
Why: This was a big man draft and the case would be the same here for the Rockets as it was for Cleveland when they draft him (and Orlando and Washington when they received him before he ever played a pro game): it was him or Zach Randolph. Randolph went one pick before him in the draft and the two had similar games. Ultimately Cleveland showed they wanted Randolph more and shipped Haywood out. But, in a post-Hakeem era beginning in Houston, Haywood would have been a solid pick up here, but not sensational. As Randolph separated himself, Haywood still played decent for many years in Washington as a key reserve.

Pick 14: Golden State Warriors
Who they took: Troy Murphy
Who they should have took: Troy Murphy
Why: Murphy was a motor guy who would get on the floor. Golden State didn’t know their identity like they did during the RUN TMC era or today, and in trying to find it, they acquired blue collar guys. And Troy Murphy never let them down. He rebounded the ball well (five years in double digit average) for a guy who wasn’t a prototypical rebounder and bought himself a couple of extra stints in the league (in New Jersey, Boston, LA and Dallas) because of his stingy defense, which helped the Warriors (planned or otherwise), establish their mid-2000’s strong defensive philosophy.

Pick 15: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Steven Hunter
Who they should have took: Samuel Dalembert (26th pick)
Why: Lather, rinse, repeat. See 2000’s redraft #15. See the first sentence of 2001’s #13 pick. It was a big man draft. Dalembert had height, looked athletic and moved ok. Welcome to the selling point of players in this early-2000s time period.

Redrafting the 2000 NBA Draft

Orlando had three top-13 picks. Chicago had two top-7 picks. Yet neither emerged from the 2000 NBA Draft with a legit prospect to help turn them into a contender. But why?

Because the 2000 NBA Draft sucked, that’s why. Universally panned as the worst draft of the modern era (and if it isn’t considered as such, it should be), the draft produced ok, mediocre and cry-yourself-to-sleep why-did-I-pick-him results. Mark Madsen may be one of the most memorable people to come out of this draft. Yes, the guy who danced a lot as a Laker.

Six picks between seven and fifteen were traded before their rookie seasons, showing just how inconsequential this group was and how no team was really all that interested in anyone.

I come back to write this paragraph after I wrote the rest of this blog. And why? Because this was just plan sad and boring. It made me hate that I decided to do this series and I seriously can’t wait until I get the chance to write about the 2001 class just because they weren’t this pile of whatever this pile is.

Its all just…gross.

Pick 1: New Jersey Nets
Who they took: Kenyon Martin
Who they should have took: Kenyon Martin
Why: Martin was instrumental early on and one of the only plays in this class to achieve any decent level of success. After averaging 12 ppg as a rookie, Martin would lead the Nets to the 2002 NBA Finals in his second season and then post career highs in scoring in seasons three and four, all while helping establish the Nets as an Eastern power. This was the right pick then and remains so now. Even after he left Jersey, Martin has been a helpful performer, posting a career high in field goal percentage during the 2012-2013 season.

Pick 2: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Stromile Swift
Who they should have took: Mike Miller (5th pick)
Why: Another guy in this series who ended up there anyway, Miller was a lights out shooter and still is when called upon. His best years were in Memphis, where he shot 50-percent from three-point range in 2003 and averaged 18.5 ppg in 2007. The Grizzlies could have used him earlier to ease their continued pain of bad picks.

Pick 3: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Darius Miles
Who they should have took: Jamal Crawford (8th pick)
Why: When he scores, he break records. 44 times Jamal Crawford has made four-point plays. It’s a record….because it’s 44 times! Crawford has been here, there and everywhere (including the Clippers) and is a 2-time sixth man award winner. Wherever he ends up, he helps and was a pretty prolific scorer during one of the sets of down years for the Knicks. He led the league in free throw shooting in 2012 in Portland and has averaged over 18 ppg five times, including this last season on a roster that boasts big time scorers Blake Griffin and Chris Paul. He has turned out significantly better than people thought he would and probably still doesn’t get the respect that he deserves.

Pick 4: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Marcus Fizer
Who they should have took: Hedo Turkoglu (16th pick)
Why: Because he wasn’t Marcus Fizer? No seriously, Hedo is a guy who can spread the floor and play pretty much any position other than point guard, especially in his younger days. With the Bulls pretty much needing everything right here, Hedo would have helped literally everywhere. He was a terrific role player early on in Sacramento (about the time the Bulls would have had him) and only got better as the contracts got bigger. And my guess is the Bulls would have tried harder to keep him on the payroll than the Kings did. And as good of an unlikely three-point shooter as he always has been, he posted his best numbers there (44%) just this last season.

Pick 5: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Mike Miller
Who they should have took: Deshawn Stevenson (23rd pick)
Why: Yup, he sure is a lifetime 7.2 ppg guy who didn’t even play in the league last year. But Stevenson has done so many intangible things in his career and has been reliable when a team shows him that he is relied on, playing in and starting all 82 games for three straight seasons from 2005-2008, all while averaging 11 or so points. He was a gifted natural athlete from the get go and true bruiser.

Pick 6: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: DerMarr Johnson
Who they should have took: Jamaal Magloire (19th pick)
Why: Magloire ended up being a bust that has been out of the league for 2 years but it seems much longer. But spent his first 5 years in the league (a big part of that rookie contract) as a possible long term All-Star, instead of a one-and-done All-Star (which is still way more than most this class can boast). He played, played often, played a lot of minutes and averaged 13.6 ppg and 10.3 rpg in his fourth season. Magloire would have been a band aid, not any long term care. But he was, at that time, a pretty damn good band aid.

Pick 7: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Chris Mihm (traded to Cavaliers)
Who they should have took: Michael Redd (43rd pick)
Why: For an Olympic Gold Medalist and NBA All-Star, Michael Redd’s name wasn’t on the tip of people’s tongues nearly as long as it should have been because of back-to-back torn ACLs. Before that ACL tear, he was one of the biggest steals in draft history with five seasons averaging 20+ ppg. Redd established himself, in the mid-2000s, as one of the best players in the NBA no only in scoring, but just working to get to the basket. On top of his ability to create, he was a great shooter, only shooting less than 40-percent from three-point range two seasons, including his rookie campaign. He could have been the fact of the Bulls in an era where they were so desperate for their “new Michael,” before Derrick Rose came in.

Pick 8: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Jamal Crawford (traded to Bulls)
Who they should have took: Quentin Richardson (18th pick)
Why: Expectation hurt Richardson early. That and his teaming with Darius Miles that forced that young guns expectation. But under that, Richardson was a charger and the Cavs essentially used this pick to take beat up and boring Chris Mihm. Cleveland was still limping to that light at the end of the tunnel that was a couple of years away and Richardson would have been a great person to have with some experience when LeBron came to town. His best season? LeBron’s rookie year where 17.2 ppg in Cleveland would have gone a long further than it did with the Clippers.

Pick 9: Houston Rockets
Who they took: Joel Przybilla (traded to Bucks)
Who they should have took: Keyon Dooling (10th pick)
Why: Because I am grasping at straws? No really, I am. The Rockets ended up with Jason Collier with this pick essentially and even though they didn’t know the best player in franchise history (Hakeem Olajuwon) was headed out the door, they really needed a scoring punch that they didn’t have. If it wasn’t for Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley, this team would have been awful. Worse than they were, which despite their 48-34 record in 2010-2011, was pretty bad. Dooling would have provided way more of a lift than Collier, who was the 13th best player on the team.

Pick 10: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Keyon Dooling (traded to Clippers)
Who they should have took: Joel Przybilla (9th pick)
Why: Pszybilla is functional. That function isn’t always solid, but it does exist. And that counts for something, right? Who am I kidding; he was a big body who wouldn’t have helped the Magic. Draft him, trade him while he has some stock in 2000 (before he went on to be a top 10 pick who averaged less than one point a game as a rookie)

Pick 11: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Jerome Moiso
Who they should have took: Eddie House (37th pick)
Why: Because he’s not Jerome Moiso. No seriously, I could put anyone’s name here and it would be valid. House went on to be a reliable third or fourth guy off the bench. That’s not usually worth an 11th pick, but in this draft it sure is. The Celtics loved him eventually when he was a big-time bench catalyst for their 2008 title team. He played for nine teams and even though he was only good enough to get mostly one-year contracts, there was a reason he kept getting picked up and that is because teams knew he wasn’t going to hurt you and he would work hard. Boston needed him in 2008 and really they could have used him much earlier.

Pick 12: Dallas Mavericks
Who they took: Etan Thomas
Who they should have took: Desmond Mason (17th pick)
Why: Mason was another solid out of the gate guy who didn’t pan out. After a rookie struggle, he did well in Seattle before being a pawn in the Ray Allen trade which helped him lift off in Milwaukee because while he was the second best name value heading from Seattle (behind Gary Payton), the Glove’s ability was dropping and someone needed to pick up the slack for losing Allen. He put up 17.2 ppg in 2004-05, earning a great contract with the Hornets, where his career started to flounder. Dallas was loaded for that time and he could have slide in nicely to help up backups Juwan Howard and Christian Laettner.

Pick 13: Orlando Magic
Who they took: Courtney Alexander (traded to Mavericks)
Who they should have took: Eduardo Najera (38th pick)
Why: As noted, Orlando was garbage and Najera was a work horse, though never the best scorer. He was a guy who was brought in for 15 minutes of mid range jump shots. But in this shallow pool, I’d take it.

Pick 14: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Mateen Cleaves
Who they should have took: Brian Cardinal (44th pick)
Why: This team had no short term prospects and they knew it. They were a year from putting together their best team and knowing that they were waiting for a good free agency boom, bringing in a misguided and overrated Mateen Cleaves was pointless. They needed a blue collar 20 minute guy who would throw around his weight and back up the emerging Ben Wallace better than the Jerome Williams/John Wallace dud farm.

Pick 15: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Jason Collier (traded to Rockets)
Who they should have took: Chris Mihm (7th pick)
Why: Because he was 7-feet tall and had some athletic ability. The end.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Redrafting the 1999 NBA Draft

1999 is almost a forgotten year when you talk about top draft classes, but this class really was loaded from top to bottom as the first and fifty-seventh picks each ended up being All-Stars and All-NBA performers during their careers. There were seven other All-Stars picked between them.

The letdowns there were, especially in the top 15 were both unfortunate and sad. Duke University saw four players go in the top 14 picks, but only two had extended NBA careers and only one (Elton Brand) had any high level of success. Trajan Langdon and William Avery both washed out in the league but had pretty great success overseas.

And the sad: Frederic Weis. Although Knicks fans still have a habit of booing their own draft picks when their names were called, this was perhaps the worst pick in the history of the draft, let alone in New York. Weis, best (and really only) known for being the victim of a Vince Carter leap-frog-your-opponent dunk in the Olympics, never played a single NBA minute. He became one of the highest picks ever, if not THE highest to never see the league.

Pick 1: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Elton Brand
Who they should have took: Manu Ginobili (57th pick)
Why: Had any single team had the slightest inkling about Manu, he would have been a locked in lottery pick. Had they known what we know now, he would have very clearly been the building block of Chicago’s post-Jordan reboot instead of Brand. He is quite possibly the best foreign player to ever play in the NBA and has shown his game and the level at which he plays has substantial longevity, especially when you consider that he had played professionally overseas for four years at this point. With a player like Manu to build around, Chicago could have made better roster decisions earlier.

Pick 2: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Steve Francis (traded to Rockets)
Who they should have took: Baron Davis (3rd pick)
Why: First of all, drafting Davis would have given Vancouver someone to build around, as opposed to giving up Steve Francis for a litany of garbage (Othella Harrington may have been their best piece of the Houston trade). Davis went on to be one of the most reliable, gritty and tough point guards in the modern age of the league. He averaged over 16 points and 7 assists during his career, three times averaging 20+ points per game. The trophy years for Davis were his 22.9 ppg, 2.4 spg, 4.3 rpg, 7.5 apg outing in 2003-2004. That same year, had he been in then-Memphis, he would have teamed with Shane Battier and Pau Gasol and possibly been a major threat out West.

Pick 3: Charlotte Hornets
Who they took: Baron Davis
Who they should have took: Elton Brand (1st pick)
Why: While not the best player in this draft now, anyone who sees Brand as near a bust doesn’t know much about the league. He never went on to be the most dominant post of the century as many believed he could, but he averaged 20+ six different years and could have been a foundation (as Davis became) for a soon to be relocating and rebuilding franchise. Elton Brand would have been a great face for the New Orleans Hornets. He is one of a handful of still active players from this draft and although his production has done down, his career point/rebound numbers still hover over 16 and 8. It’s a stretch to say he would have stayed in New Orleans through 2005, but had he, they would have benefited from back to back years of averaging over 20/10 and he instantly would have helped them in 1999, still stumbling over the Kobe debacle.

Pick 4: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Lamar Odom
Who they should have took: Shawn Marion (9th pick)
Why: The draft gets wide open for the next several picks as there may not have been a wrong choice in anybody I name from here through pick 10. But what Marion has provided in his career has been a winning attitude and nearly unparalleled effort. His numbers stay respectable, but Marion has been a guy who was clutch as a teammate. Could he have thrived as THE guy? Who knows. Maybe he wouldn’t have been that guy in LA anyway, but as a big puzzle piece, he was one of the guys who made Phoenix’s run and gun in the 2000s so efficient.

Pick 5: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Jonathan Bender (traded to Pacers)
Who they should have took: Richard (Rip) Hamilton (7th pick)
Why: Bender was a joke and so was his aged replacement Antonio Davis, so this is automatically and upgrade. Forget his 17.1 career points per game for a minute and remember that Richard Hamilton is one of the best face guarding players in the modern era of the NBA. There are very few guys I would rather have playing defense, especially off the ball. He made other guys work and work and work and work and then some. And I would much rather have Rip in the backcourt as a rookie than the aging Dell Curry or Muggsy Bouges.

Pick 6: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Wally Szczerbiak
Who they should have took: Steve Francis (2nd pick)
Why: Because the Stephon Marbury experiment was unsuccessful and Minnesota really needed a point guard. Something that made their pick of Szczerbiak odd anyway as Terrell Brandon (the player they got in the Marbury trade) was not a long term fix. Also, with hindsight as it is, we know that Minnesota was on the verge of losing first round draft picks for years to come. Francis may have been happier in Minnesota and it would have given the T-Wolves another chance to partner an explosive point man in a high-scoring combo with Kevin Garnett.

Pick 7: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Richard Hamilton
Who they should have took: Jason Terry (10th pick)
Why: Washington was hungry for a playmaker guard at this point and Terry looked more offensively ready than Rip at this point. And while his assist numbers have never quite added up as a point guard, he’s succeeded as a backup and an undersized shooting guard, hitting 38-percent for his career from long range. He’s also only had two seasons in single digit scoring (his first and 2013-2014) so he has shown consistency. Something that, for the most part, still lacks in Washington today. Also, with Terry on the roster, the Wizards may have never gotten involved with his college teammate Gilbert Arenas years later out of need, something that helped kill their franchise a little more.

Pick 8: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Andre Miller
Who they should have took: Lamar Odom (4th pick)
Why: For the sad joke that Odom has turned into, he was a stellar prospect and solid contributor for almost his entire career. Cleveland’s guard first approach to lottery life in the years before Lebron didn’t pan out, so taking a nice combo forward like Odom could have been a better avenue, even if it did leave them in the lottery or the smelly end of the playoffs.

Pick 9: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Shawn Marion
Who they should have took: Ron Artest (16th pick)
Why: It is hard to say what to do here. The Suns lost Jason Kidd during the following season with an injury, so maybe you want another point guard so the brunt of the work doesn’t go to Penny Hardaway. But I say go physical and bring in Artest. Before the real anger issues or name changes, Artest was just a brute force. He would have helped Phoenix initially in their eventual playoff loss to San Antonio and this pick could have changed the path of the franchise. Maybe Artest, teaming with Kidd or even if they still traded for Marbury, becomes what leads Phoenix and never brings Nash or Amare Stoudemire to town. Would it be better? Hard to say, but Artest’s intensity would have been good for a talented, yet pretty emotionless club in 1999.

Pick 10: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: Jason Terry
Who they should have took: Andre Miller (8th pick)
Why: You basically get the same thing in Miller as you got in Terry, with a little less scoring and little better court vision. In just his third season, Miller put up a 16.5 ppg/10.9 apg season that would have been useful in Atlanta where Terry was the leading scorer pretty quickly. Would this pick have changed anything? No, but it would be a lateral move for another emotionless franchise.

Pick 11: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Trajan Langdon
Who they should have took: Corey Magette (13th pick)
Why: Langdon was a prototypical Duke player. But there is a reason that old school look doesn’t breed much success for ex-Blue Devils and a reason that Magette lasted longer in the league. Magette and Odom would have been a fierce combo in Cleveland and led a youthful surge for a long ailing club. What Cleveland actually got from Langdon were two uneventful years where he never looked like the advertised “Alaskan Assassin.” Though he washed out and faded in obscurity recently, Magette was still a 16 ppg career scorer who at times looked like a dominant physical specimen capable of leading a franchise as their top guy.

Pick 12: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Aleksander Radojevic
Who they should have took: Andrei Kirilenko (24th pick)
Why: While Kirilenko has sadly never become the player he has the potential to be, he would have been an awesome player for Toronto to add to a roster that boasted Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady (and in the redraft version a better option than Antonio Davis with the earlier 5th pick). They were already a playoff team, so imagine this Raptors team dropping Davis’ 11.5 ppg and Radojevic’s three games played for Rip Hamilton and AK-47. Yes please.

Pick 13: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Corey Magette (traded to Orlando)
Who they should have took: Wally Szczerbiak (6th pick)
Why: Wally deserves to be graded with an incomplete for his career because injuries really prevented us from seeing what kind of longevity he could provide. He was a fresh face in Minnesota and a very different look from the KG run show, which helped him thrive. He averaged 20 ppg in the 2002 playoffs and peaked with 20.1 ppg in 2006 and while he would end up in Seattle eventually, they could have used his diversity, defensive enthusiasm and shooting (a career 40.6-percent shooter from downtown) at this point as they too looked for an identity in the early post-Kemp/Payton era.

Pick 14: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: William Avery
Who they should have took: Raja Bell (undrafted)
Why: Raja was never going to significantly turn heads, but he was another guy who (as a sixth man) was crucial to the mid-2000 Phoenix Suns teams that looked like they may win an NBA title. Bell would have been great relief for Garnett in Minnesota, especially in his 2005-06 and 06-07 seasons when he averaged career high 14.7 ppg for the Suns.

Pick 15: New York Knicks
Who they took: Frederic Weis
Who they should have took: James Posey (18th pick)
Why: Look, I know James Posey isn’t Michael Jordan. However, he also isn’t Frederic Weis. Thankfully. Posey averaged only 8.6 ppg throughout his career but was strong defensively and eventually a surprising revelation of a player during the Celtics’ ‘Big Three’ championship run. And he was consistent, providing about the same level of work until his final two seasons. He would have been the kind of blue collar player that the Knicks used years earlier at their peak and although he would have never been a star, he would have played harder than anyone else they really had at this point.