Thursday, May 29, 2014

Redrafting the 1999 NBA Draft

1999 is almost a forgotten year when you talk about top draft classes, but this class really was loaded from top to bottom as the first and fifty-seventh picks each ended up being All-Stars and All-NBA performers during their careers. There were seven other All-Stars picked between them.

The letdowns there were, especially in the top 15 were both unfortunate and sad. Duke University saw four players go in the top 14 picks, but only two had extended NBA careers and only one (Elton Brand) had any high level of success. Trajan Langdon and William Avery both washed out in the league but had pretty great success overseas.

And the sad: Frederic Weis. Although Knicks fans still have a habit of booing their own draft picks when their names were called, this was perhaps the worst pick in the history of the draft, let alone in New York. Weis, best (and really only) known for being the victim of a Vince Carter leap-frog-your-opponent dunk in the Olympics, never played a single NBA minute. He became one of the highest picks ever, if not THE highest to never see the league.

Pick 1: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Elton Brand
Who they should have took: Manu Ginobili (57th pick)
Why: Had any single team had the slightest inkling about Manu, he would have been a locked in lottery pick. Had they known what we know now, he would have very clearly been the building block of Chicago’s post-Jordan reboot instead of Brand. He is quite possibly the best foreign player to ever play in the NBA and has shown his game and the level at which he plays has substantial longevity, especially when you consider that he had played professionally overseas for four years at this point. With a player like Manu to build around, Chicago could have made better roster decisions earlier.

Pick 2: Vancouver Grizzlies
Who they took: Steve Francis (traded to Rockets)
Who they should have took: Baron Davis (3rd pick)
Why: First of all, drafting Davis would have given Vancouver someone to build around, as opposed to giving up Steve Francis for a litany of garbage (Othella Harrington may have been their best piece of the Houston trade). Davis went on to be one of the most reliable, gritty and tough point guards in the modern age of the league. He averaged over 16 points and 7 assists during his career, three times averaging 20+ points per game. The trophy years for Davis were his 22.9 ppg, 2.4 spg, 4.3 rpg, 7.5 apg outing in 2003-2004. That same year, had he been in then-Memphis, he would have teamed with Shane Battier and Pau Gasol and possibly been a major threat out West.

Pick 3: Charlotte Hornets
Who they took: Baron Davis
Who they should have took: Elton Brand (1st pick)
Why: While not the best player in this draft now, anyone who sees Brand as near a bust doesn’t know much about the league. He never went on to be the most dominant post of the century as many believed he could, but he averaged 20+ six different years and could have been a foundation (as Davis became) for a soon to be relocating and rebuilding franchise. Elton Brand would have been a great face for the New Orleans Hornets. He is one of a handful of still active players from this draft and although his production has done down, his career point/rebound numbers still hover over 16 and 8. It’s a stretch to say he would have stayed in New Orleans through 2005, but had he, they would have benefited from back to back years of averaging over 20/10 and he instantly would have helped them in 1999, still stumbling over the Kobe debacle.

Pick 4: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Lamar Odom
Who they should have took: Shawn Marion (9th pick)
Why: The draft gets wide open for the next several picks as there may not have been a wrong choice in anybody I name from here through pick 10. But what Marion has provided in his career has been a winning attitude and nearly unparalleled effort. His numbers stay respectable, but Marion has been a guy who was clutch as a teammate. Could he have thrived as THE guy? Who knows. Maybe he wouldn’t have been that guy in LA anyway, but as a big puzzle piece, he was one of the guys who made Phoenix’s run and gun in the 2000s so efficient.

Pick 5: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Jonathan Bender (traded to Pacers)
Who they should have took: Richard (Rip) Hamilton (7th pick)
Why: Bender was a joke and so was his aged replacement Antonio Davis, so this is automatically and upgrade. Forget his 17.1 career points per game for a minute and remember that Richard Hamilton is one of the best face guarding players in the modern era of the NBA. There are very few guys I would rather have playing defense, especially off the ball. He made other guys work and work and work and work and then some. And I would much rather have Rip in the backcourt as a rookie than the aging Dell Curry or Muggsy Bouges.

Pick 6: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Wally Szczerbiak
Who they should have took: Steve Francis (2nd pick)
Why: Because the Stephon Marbury experiment was unsuccessful and Minnesota really needed a point guard. Something that made their pick of Szczerbiak odd anyway as Terrell Brandon (the player they got in the Marbury trade) was not a long term fix. Also, with hindsight as it is, we know that Minnesota was on the verge of losing first round draft picks for years to come. Francis may have been happier in Minnesota and it would have given the T-Wolves another chance to partner an explosive point man in a high-scoring combo with Kevin Garnett.

Pick 7: Washington Wizards
Who they took: Richard Hamilton
Who they should have took: Jason Terry (10th pick)
Why: Washington was hungry for a playmaker guard at this point and Terry looked more offensively ready than Rip at this point. And while his assist numbers have never quite added up as a point guard, he’s succeeded as a backup and an undersized shooting guard, hitting 38-percent for his career from long range. He’s also only had two seasons in single digit scoring (his first and 2013-2014) so he has shown consistency. Something that, for the most part, still lacks in Washington today. Also, with Terry on the roster, the Wizards may have never gotten involved with his college teammate Gilbert Arenas years later out of need, something that helped kill their franchise a little more.

Pick 8: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Andre Miller
Who they should have took: Lamar Odom (4th pick)
Why: For the sad joke that Odom has turned into, he was a stellar prospect and solid contributor for almost his entire career. Cleveland’s guard first approach to lottery life in the years before Lebron didn’t pan out, so taking a nice combo forward like Odom could have been a better avenue, even if it did leave them in the lottery or the smelly end of the playoffs.

Pick 9: Phoenix Suns
Who they took: Shawn Marion
Who they should have took: Ron Artest (16th pick)
Why: It is hard to say what to do here. The Suns lost Jason Kidd during the following season with an injury, so maybe you want another point guard so the brunt of the work doesn’t go to Penny Hardaway. But I say go physical and bring in Artest. Before the real anger issues or name changes, Artest was just a brute force. He would have helped Phoenix initially in their eventual playoff loss to San Antonio and this pick could have changed the path of the franchise. Maybe Artest, teaming with Kidd or even if they still traded for Marbury, becomes what leads Phoenix and never brings Nash or Amare Stoudemire to town. Would it be better? Hard to say, but Artest’s intensity would have been good for a talented, yet pretty emotionless club in 1999.

Pick 10: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: Jason Terry
Who they should have took: Andre Miller (8th pick)
Why: You basically get the same thing in Miller as you got in Terry, with a little less scoring and little better court vision. In just his third season, Miller put up a 16.5 ppg/10.9 apg season that would have been useful in Atlanta where Terry was the leading scorer pretty quickly. Would this pick have changed anything? No, but it would be a lateral move for another emotionless franchise.

Pick 11: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who they took: Trajan Langdon
Who they should have took: Corey Magette (13th pick)
Why: Langdon was a prototypical Duke player. But there is a reason that old school look doesn’t breed much success for ex-Blue Devils and a reason that Magette lasted longer in the league. Magette and Odom would have been a fierce combo in Cleveland and led a youthful surge for a long ailing club. What Cleveland actually got from Langdon were two uneventful years where he never looked like the advertised “Alaskan Assassin.” Though he washed out and faded in obscurity recently, Magette was still a 16 ppg career scorer who at times looked like a dominant physical specimen capable of leading a franchise as their top guy.

Pick 12: Toronto Raptors
Who they took: Aleksander Radojevic
Who they should have took: Andrei Kirilenko (24th pick)
Why: While Kirilenko has sadly never become the player he has the potential to be, he would have been an awesome player for Toronto to add to a roster that boasted Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady (and in the redraft version a better option than Antonio Davis with the earlier 5th pick). They were already a playoff team, so imagine this Raptors team dropping Davis’ 11.5 ppg and Radojevic’s three games played for Rip Hamilton and AK-47. Yes please.

Pick 13: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Corey Magette (traded to Orlando)
Who they should have took: Wally Szczerbiak (6th pick)
Why: Wally deserves to be graded with an incomplete for his career because injuries really prevented us from seeing what kind of longevity he could provide. He was a fresh face in Minnesota and a very different look from the KG run show, which helped him thrive. He averaged 20 ppg in the 2002 playoffs and peaked with 20.1 ppg in 2006 and while he would end up in Seattle eventually, they could have used his diversity, defensive enthusiasm and shooting (a career 40.6-percent shooter from downtown) at this point as they too looked for an identity in the early post-Kemp/Payton era.

Pick 14: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: William Avery
Who they should have took: Raja Bell (undrafted)
Why: Raja was never going to significantly turn heads, but he was another guy who (as a sixth man) was crucial to the mid-2000 Phoenix Suns teams that looked like they may win an NBA title. Bell would have been great relief for Garnett in Minnesota, especially in his 2005-06 and 06-07 seasons when he averaged career high 14.7 ppg for the Suns.

Pick 15: New York Knicks
Who they took: Frederic Weis
Who they should have took: James Posey (18th pick)
Why: Look, I know James Posey isn’t Michael Jordan. However, he also isn’t Frederic Weis. Thankfully. Posey averaged only 8.6 ppg throughout his career but was strong defensively and eventually a surprising revelation of a player during the Celtics’ ‘Big Three’ championship run. And he was consistent, providing about the same level of work until his final two seasons. He would have been the kind of blue collar player that the Knicks used years earlier at their peak and although he would have never been a star, he would have played harder than anyone else they really had at this point.

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