2004 swung back away from the power of the playmakers and
back into a realm of which big man do you gamble on. While the only real
contender in the mind of the Orlando Magic, back at it with a number one pick,
were untested high schooler Dwight Howard and dominant college big man Emeka
Okafor, there were other less heralded but appealing options like foreign born
BYU seven-footer Rafael Araujo, another high schooler in Robert Swift and
Latvian Andris Biedrins.
For Orlando , it
was all about making that absolute right choice and sticking with it. In the
90’s, they made that top pick twice, both on big men and both were the right
pick, although they only kept one (Shaq) and the Chris Webber trade still
haunted them.
So who was the right post?
Pick 1: Orlando
Magic
Who they took: Dwight Howard
Who they should have took: Dwight Howard
Why: Howard was clearly the right choice, even if his career
at this point is often deemed a let down. He was never a let down in Orlando
and is really only considered one now because we as a society have deemed him
as an elite player and he probably really isn’t. He is, at the top of his game,
a physical dominant big man, as much so today as Shaq was in his prime to that
generation of the league. Does that mean Dwight ever was as good as Shaq? No.
But he was powerful in Orlando ,
clearly the league’s best post and even after the Dwight-cision that led him to
LA and Houston, this remains (11 years later) by far the best choice for Orlando .
Pick 2: Charlotte
Bobcats
Who they took: Emeka Okafor
Who they should have took: Andre Iguodala (9th
pick)
Why: With all of the talk being between Howard and Okafor
pre draft, you can see why the Bobcats made this pick. Also, Okafor was legitimately
strong in college at Uconn. The Bobcats picked who they thought would help them
win immediately. But as is often the case in Charlotte ,
they were wrong. Mostly because they weren’t going to win immediately, no
matter what. Knowing that fully now, Iguodala is the pick because he was NBA
ready. His game was on a professional level from the get go and he has become
the most overall prolific scorer from this draft, which would have been of a
high value to a team building from the complete ground up like these expansion
Bobcats.
Pick 3: Chicago
Bulls
Who they took: Ben Gordon
Who they should have took: Al Jefferson (15th
pick)
Why: If you look at Al Jefferson’s high school stats (as I
just did for the first time ever), it is so shocking to see that he fell to the
15th pick of this draft. His scoring average rose every year at
Prentiss (MS) High School, which is impressive since he scored 25 ppg as a
freshman. I understand that he was criticized in the pre-draft process for
being lazy and lacking effort, but if I am a GM I try to get or force effort
out of a guy who his senior year averaged (with no exaggeration) 42.6 points,
18 rebounds, seven blocks and four assists PER GAME. And he’s gone on to do
right in the league, scoring 21 and 23.1 ppg in his first two seasons in
Minnesota after being part of the Kevin Garnett trade. He was at the top of his
free agent class in 2010 and 2013 and has become the face of a suddenly viable
Charlotte Hornets organization.
Pick 4: Los Angeles
Clippers
Who they took: Shaun Livingston
Who they should have took: Luol Deng (7th pick)
Why: There were a lot of question marks about Deng that he
quickly erased. It was one thing for his uncanny understanding of the game at
its fundamental core to transfer from England
to Duke. But could he do the same in the league? After all, he was long and
thin coming out of one year with Coach K. He developed nicely in the league and
has increased his scoring and rebounding more seasons than not. Los
Angeles was looking for a long complimentary wing and
went with the guy who could also play point. Had Livingston
not suffered a horrific injury, he may still be the pick here. But he did, so
you take Deng, a 35+ minute a night guy with a high motor.
Pick 5: Washington
Wizards
Who they took: Devin Harris (traded to Mavericks)
Who they should have took: Josh Smith (17th pick)
Why: Josh Smith suffered in Atlanta
from being a guy stuck between positions. He was a natural three-man with a
height (6’10’’) and teammates (they took Josh Childress the same year) that
forced him to be a four and I really think that is what forced him to put on
weight to try play that position and ultimately to me, hindered his NBA
development. In Washington , they
had small guards and post players and Smith would have been able to slide right
into a natural position. And he had longevity. Imagine a Wizards team adding
John Wall if Josh Smith had still been around like he was in Atlanta ,
but at his natural position where he could give you more than 15 and 8 every
night.
Pick 6: Atlanta
Hawks
Who they took: Josh Childress
Who they should have took: Ben Gordon (2nd pick)
Why: Ben Gordon was projected to be a Joe Dumars like player
and it is a role that he really does fit into now as a veteran. Gone are the
days when teams (like the Bulls when drafting him) expect him to be a lead
guard and he can settle in as a role player. Detroit
used him right when they traded for him in 2009, but still expected more. While
his numbers were down, he was still filling a key role, but they already made
the mistake of paying him too much and later made that mistake Charlotte ’s
problem. With a clear path after a March release, I look forward to Gordon
proving his worth in a natural role finally.
Pick 7: Phoenix
Suns
Who they took: Luol Deng (traded to Bulls)
Who they should have took: Jameer Nelson (20th pick)
Why: Nelson’s draft stock fell because of his close
association with the story of his college team at St. Joe’s. They were pretty
highly touted, made an amazing undefeated run and then flopped in the NCAA
Tournament. For a lot of teams, the story of St. Joe’s was a cautionary tale
about drafting their star player Nelson. Also not working for Nelson was his
size, but what did work for him was an ability to score as his passing game
developed. It is hard to say Nelson struggled as he has consistently put up
good numbers in Orlando , but in Phoenix ,
he could have had more time to develop and not expected to immediately be a
high profile player as he was an accessory to Dwight Howard in Orlando .
Pick 8: Toronto
Raptors
Who they took: Rafael Araujo
Who they should have took: Devin Harris (5th
pick)
Why: Harris is another guy, like so many in this draft (see Gordon,
Ben or Nelson, Jameer) who has seen his production, role and value drop off
dramatically over the years. However, he was very viable early and often in Dallas
and later New Jersey and Utah .
In 2009-2009, he was a breath of fresh air for the Nets as an All-Star who
averaged over 21 ppg. That was his sixth year in the league and his numbers
climbed every year leading up to it. Sadly, they declined each year sense. But
if you look at what Harris did to start his career, he would have been a
revelation in Toronto during that
stage.
Pick 9: Philadelphia
76ers
Who they took: Andre Iguodala
Who they should have took: JR Smith (18th pick)
Why: With a solid, if not uninspired core of big men, Philly
needed a legit scorer and scraper with their pick to offset Allen Iverson. They
got the scorer part in Iguodala, but I feel like Smith would have been a great
fit as a scrapper. Smith made an immediate impact in the league, scoring 10 ppg
as a rookie in New Orleans and
could have added to a physical and intimidation driven demeanor in Philly
usually perpetrated by Iverson, Samuel Dalembert and Chris Webber.
Pick 10: Cleveland
Cavaliers
Who they took: Luke Jackson
Who they should have took: Anderson Varejao (31st
pick)
Why: The Cavs ended up with Varejao anyway after trading
away Tony Battie and 2 second rounders for a package that included the
Brazilian center. And it paid off as he has pretty quietly became one of the
better Cavaliers of the new millennium not named LeBron. He has even gotten
better with age, putting up career highs as recent as 2012-2013, including
surpassing 14 rpg.
Pick 11: Golden State
Who they took: Andris Biedrins
Who they should have took: Kevin Martin (26th
pick)
Why: Because Biedrins was a bust. There was a lot of high
hope for him to come in and be someone that the Warriors could build around and
he surely wasn’t that guy. Martin could have been. It is hard to imagine, but
he averaged just 2.9 points per game as rookie, the only time he has averaged
in single digits. As a matter of fact, he has averaged over 20 ppg as many
times (5) as he has averaged under (6). The only thing that keeps Martin from
being higher in this redraft is that he is mostly a one trick pony. He can
score, sometimes in droves, but he really isn’t diverse in much else. But when
it comes to building around a scorer, like Golden
State
Pick 12: Seattle
Supersonics
Who they took: Robert Swift
Who they should have took: Trevor Ariza (44th
pick)
Why: Seattle was
in a weird spot. They had a couple of great options, a couple of good options
and a lot of ‘eh’ options. They wanted to add someone and took a gamble on
Swift, a highly regarded high school center. He played in 16 games as a rookie
and scored 15 points. Ariza, not expected to be able to keep up at the NBA
level did much better than that, averaging almost 6 ppg while playing in 80 for
the New York Knicks. He adapted well over time to the NBA game and broke out
strong in Houston, while continuing to be a valuable provider ever since (he
had his second best year this past season in Washington).
Pick 13: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Sebastian Telfair
Who they should have took: Tony Allen (25th pick)
Why: Allen was a defensive ball hawk during the Celtics’
most recent NBA title run and has become a must have player for the emerging
Memphis Grizzlies. His numbers may not always be the best, but he’s been part
of the NBA All-Defensive team for two of the past three seasons and is a shut
down player no matter where on the court his game takes him. Better yet, he’s
regained some of the explosiveness lost after a knee injury in 2007 and has
spent his four years in Memphis as four the best five offensive years of his
career to go along with that defensive prowess.
Pick 14: Utah
Jazz
Who they took: Kris Humphries
Who they should have took: Emeka Okafor (2nd
pick)
Why: Another time you have to use the word bust when he
really isn’t one. Was he the number two pick in reality now that we can look
back? No. But has Okafor Darko’d it up? Not close. He would have benefited
greatly to have been able to be brought along slow behind Carlos Boozer and
Mehmet Okur in Utah and would
have provided another real threat for a team who had talent but was still
lacking what could get them over the hump. Okafor’s still career high 15.1 ppg
as a rookie would have gone a long way to help the rebuilding franchise without
having to be THE guy to do so. While his numbers have slowly dropped off, he is
still a production guy off the bench who averaged a double-double for his first
five years in the league.
Pick 15: Boston
Celtics
Who they took: Al Jefferson
Who they should have took: Delonte West (24th
pick)
Why: You take Delonte West here because he is an enigma.
He’s not great, he’s not horrible. Delonte West is, at best, suitable when put
in the right roles. He provided a little boost as a rookie in Boston anyway and
then went on to post career best numbers his next two years before the
implementation of the Big Three left him out in the cold. He’s a streaky
shooter who can be very irritating to opposing offenses.
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