Thursday, June 19, 2014

Redrafting the 2007 NBA Draft

One year after the draft lottery kicked them squarely in the balls, the Trail Blazers got their retribution….and then pissed it away. According to statistics, they should have picked seventh and instead the ping pong balls placed them with the first pick. So they had a choice. And while the draft has some solid first round prospects, the choice was simple. The massive center that brought Ohio State within a blink of the NCAA title, or the long, thin Texas forward that could wow with his shooting on the right night.

That Texas forward, Kevin Durant, was the league MVP this past season.

That Ohio State center, Greg Oden, played in the NBA last season. That alone was an accomplishment for him because he surely hasn’t done it much.

Long story short, the Trail Blazers still didn’t get their Jordan. But they got themselves another Sam Bowie.

And oh yeah, the Celtics changed the game, probably forever. On and around draft night, the Celtics made trades that would bring Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to Beantown to team with Paul Pierce. The original ‘Big Three’ of this era culminated their first season with a NBA title, starting the possibly dangerous trend of star players pooling together.

Pick 1: Portland Trail Blazers
Who they took: Greg Oden
Who they should have took: Kevin Durant (2nd pick)
Why: Because he is one of the most singularly dominant players in the league today. Durant is a star and while a lot of #1 picks shouldn’t be number one picks, you don’t normally see a huge superstar like Durant not go first. I can’t compare this 100% to Michael Jordan going 3rd, but it is the closest equivalent in my opinion. Pairing Durant with LaMarcus Aldridge and then adding a point guard at some point shortly down the line and the Trail Blazers would have multiple NBA Titles today.

Pick 2: Seattle Supersonics
Who they took: Kevin Durant
Who they should have took: Joakim Noah (9th pick)
Why: Noah has become one of the very best stoppers around the rim and that is something Seattle needed when they took Durant. He wouldn’t be the same scoring presence, but who would. He can score and his rebound and assist numbers were at an all-time high this past season when he was named to the All-NBA First Team and was the Defensive Player of the Year. Noah does everything on defense with a controlled reckless abandon that works so perfectly for him.

Pick 3: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: Al Horford
Who they should have took: Mike Conley (4th pick)
Why: Conley is a score first point guard and while the Hawks were in search of size in this offseason, they could have got it in other ways to add a player of his caliber. His scoring rises every year and he has developed into a reliable floor leader who is devoted in a city like Memphis so there is no doubt he would have stayed in Atlanta too as the Hawks developed around him. Also, with his winning ways and a true point guard, perhaps the likes of Joe Johnson and Josh Smith would still be in town. Not only has he gotten better during the season, Conley’s career playoff scoring average is 2.7 points higher than his regular season scoring average, showing his ability to step up in big moments. From the moment I first saw them both live, I never understood why anyone would consider Greg Oden the better of this tandem.

Pick 4: Memphis Grizzlies
Who they took: Mike Conley
Who they should have took: Marc Gasol (48th pick)
Why: I guess the Grizz got their man anyway, but Gasol now looks way more like an equal to his brother, Pau, than the lesser player. It would be fun to see what it would be like had the Memphis-Lakers trade never happened and Marc stated in LA while Pau was with the Grizzlies. But never the less, you take him here if you are Memphis. He has done the club right, slimming down from Pau’s younger, wider brother and pairing with Zach Randolph to become a force and was actually an immediate contributor as a rookie, quite rare for the 48th pick.

Pick 5: Boston Celtics
Who they took: Jeff Green (traded to Sonics)
Who they should have took: Al Horford (3rd pick and trade the pick)
Why: Injuries have plagued Horford lately; playing in just 29 games this past season and 11 two seasons ago, hence his slight drop off. None the less, he is a strong interior presence and has good awareness. He would be perfect to run either side of a high-low, which is what he would have done in Seattle with Kevin Durant (in reality) or Joakim Noah (in the redraft). I say reality because if you are Boston, I don’t care who you pick at this spot, you still make the trade and get Ray Allen because that trade directly helped you win a NBA title. If we go with the redraft, repairing Horford and Noah (Florida Gator teammates) in Seattle would have helped the Sonics and later Thunder dominate the inside game no matter that they played.

Pick 6: Milwaukee Bucks
Who they took: Yi Jianlian
Who they should have took: Jeff Green (5th pick)
Why: A different kind of injury, heart issues, briefly slowed Green but don’t take away from his immediate impact and comeback (he scored over 10 ppg as a rookie and is coming off his best offensive year in 2013-14). Green is a Kevin Garnett like player who works hard pretty much all of the time. Milwaukee was headed into a horrible season and league washout Jianlian was no help. The Bucks could have used Green immediately, likely in a starting role, to help keep them out of the gutter at least a little bit.

Pick 7: Minnesota Timberwolves
Who they took: Corey Brewer
Who they should have took: Arron Afflalo (27th pick)
Why: The trade of Kevin Garnett netted the T-Wolves a whole lot of young prospects and a 22-win season of sadness. Corey Brewer didn’t help much more as a rookie than Afflalo theoretically would have, but Afflalo would have been more likely to want to be part of the rebuild than the moody Brewer. Afflalo’s steady increase from 3.7 ppg as a rookie to 18.2 ppg this last season in Orlando is a testament to having patience and being in the right system. He was immediately a better fit in Denver than Detroit and has shown signs of growing every year since.

Pick 8: Charlotte Bobcats
Who they took: Brandan Wright (traded to Warriors)
Who they should have took: Rodney Stuckey (15th pick and keep the pick)
Why: Stuckey can score. He averaged over 20 ppg both years in college and 32 ppg in the summer league before his rookie year. Then, he broke his hand in the preseason and saw his shooting touch get healed over too. Making the pick is a no brainer for the Bobcats, but keeping it all depends on how much you believe that hand break never happens in Charlotte. By not making the trade to Golden State, you don’t bring in Jason Richardson who led the team in scoring the next year. But for long term development, I think you take Stuckey over Richardson. He still averages over 13 ppg for his career and hasn’t missed too many games since his rookie season.

Pick 9: Chicago Bulls
Who they took: Joakim Noah
Who they should have took: Wilson Chandler (23rd pick)
Why: Ok, so the Bulls lucked out big time. But, with no such luck in a redraft, Wilson Chandler’s 7.3 ppg in minimal time as a rookie would suffice. Chandler didn’t even appear in half of the games his rookie year, but his work ethic and defensive prowess still landed him in the starting lineup late in the season with the Knicks. He would have played quicker (thus letting him develop quicker) in Chicago where they were still relying way too much on the aging Ben Wallace inside.

Pick 10: Sacramento Kings
Who they took: Spencer Hawes
Who they should have took: Ramon Sessions (56th pick)
Why: The impact on and off the ball that Sessions has had in the league is often overlooked. He was a late pick and by his second year in the league he was averaging more points than his last year of college. Not to mention, he came out as a rookie and averaged over 7 assists per game over just 17 games, where his assist total would rank fifth on the struggling Kings. He’s moved around a lot, but is back in Milwaukee now, averaging almost 16 ppg.

Pick 11: Atlanta Hawks
Who they took: Acie Law
Who they should have took: Marco Belinelli (18th pick)
Why: Because he can just shoot the basketball. He did so, in personal record breaking fashion this past season from everywhere on the court, while helping San Antonio to a NBA title. Only three Hawks from 2007-08 shot better from deep than Marco, where he would have been valuable off the bench on the guard weak team. His ability to also get out on the break and pull up has been valuable too and had the Hawks taken Mike Conley in the redraft, Marco would have been a fun pairing.

Pick 12: Philadelphia 76ers
Who they took: Thaddeus Young
Who they should have took: Aaron Brooks (26th pick)
Why: Brooks is another pick that isn’t nice and shiny, but still effective. By his third year in the league, when Philly was barely winning 20 games, he was averaging 19.6 ppg in Houston. Philly had holes to fill where they could have relied on Brooks and if you look at his record, the more Brooks is relied on, the better he does.

Pick 13: New Orleans Hornets
Who they took: Julian Wright
Who they should have took: Corey Brewer (7th pick)
Why: Brewer can be a scorer. He can also be a jerk. New Orleans could afford to take a chance on him and that is why this is the best place for him. Because Minnesota really didn’t have the option to cut their losses when his attitude took over because they had nobody to replace anything he did with. New Orleans was ripe with talent, could have used another small forward and at the end of the day, didn’t need Brewer’s 5.8 ppg as a rookie if he stayed a head case. He also did just score 51 points in a game this past season, showing that he can put the ball in the basket decently.

Pick 14: Los Angeles Clippers
Who they took: Al Thornton
Who they should have took: Tiaggo Splitter (28th pick)
Why: Besides being Skip Bayless’ favorite player, Splitter has a lot of raw talent that will likely finally be getting used more in San Antonio as the careers of their “big three” wind down. He didn’t come into the league until 2010 but would still have been a valuable pick for the Clippers, even if he stayed overseas. He would have come in to a Clippers team ripe with talent from Blake Griffin to Eric Bledsoe, from Baron Davis to Eric Gordon, and helped make Los Angeles the deepest team in the league. The guy can flat out shoot and score from inside the three point line and is a career 59-percent shooter.

Pick 15: Detroit Pistons
Who they took: Rodney Stuckey
Who they should have took: Josh McRoberts (37th pick)
Why: Detroit had a great season in 2007-08, but they sure could have used another body to take some of the pressure off aging Rasheed Wallace, who handled the load inside. It made Stuckey a questionable choice then. This for me came down to Glen Davis or Josh McRoberts, but the two have had comparable contributions and I’m going to be a homer by taking the Indiana born kid who played at Duke. It took him a couple of years to get his wheels turning, but he was also in a place (Indiana) that really didn’t need his contributions inside. In Detroit, he would have been able to play the physical style that has done him right in recent years, especially in Charlotte. There is a reason after all that he was once touted as a lottery pick, because he had good court vision, could score well and would put you on your butt if he wanted, even if it meant hitting the showers early.

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